فصلنامه تحقیقات حسابداری و حسابرسی
پیاپی 12 (زمستان 1390)

This study examines the usefulness of accounting estimates in predicting future earnings and cash flows. Financial statements information reported as balance sheet items and or income statement items are based largely on managerial estimates. Accounting estimates can potentially improve the relevance of financial information and on the other hand because of limitations inherent to accounting estimates, their usefulness is open to question. In this research the usefulness of accounting estimates embedded in accruals is studied in form of their ability in predicting future performance indicators. We used the model of Lev et al (2010) in studying the usefulness of accounting estimates. So we examined the ability of accounting estimates in predicting two earnings measures (net income and operating income) and two cash flow measures (cash flow from operating activities and free cash flow) based on in-sample and out-of-sample prediction methods. The lagging values of accounting estimates have a limited ability in in-sample prediction of next year earnings and cash flows. In our out-of-sample test we predicted lagged performance indicators for year t+1, year t+2 as well as in aggregate years t+1 and t+2, and t+1 through t+3. We found that accounting estimates have a limited ability in predicting future earnings and they cannot predict future cash flows.

In countries with developed financial systems and institutions, almost all real estate trades are financed through mortgage securities. In such a process, buyer pays a small part of the cost and finance remnant through a mortgage debt. On the other hand, most of finance experts say that the main cause in International Financial Crisis was the lack of a precise cognition of black boxes in these securities. Since Securities and Exchanges Organization set an agenda to publish mortgage securities, identification and modeling of risks in these securities, as well as a worldwide comparative study in countries which has published mortgage securities earlier to explore deficiencies, may guide policy makers to decrease deficiencies, in addition to make mortgage securities a beneficial instrument in hands of people and capital market.In this study, we used structured equations method. After a literature review in mortgage securities, we employed structured equations algorithm as follows: first, we completed the conceptual model of risks related to mortgage securities through expert's opinion; and then, we used questionnaire to obtain effect of every risk on the total risk of mortgage securities.

This study investigated the effect of deterrence level corporate governance mechanisms from the insolvency of financial firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. In this context, corporate governance mechanisms, including the percentage of institutional owners, indirect directors and auditor type as independent variables and financial collapse - as the dependent variable was determined that the failure rate based on the Altman Z model was classified. Simple, logistic and multiple regression assumptions were used for testing. Study population included 67 companies is during 1384 to 1388. The Statistical methods used to test considered hypotheses in this research method is "the combination and sectional data". Research findings show that the entire study period in individual years, significant and negative relationship between the indirect directors and there is a financial collapse. did not show significant and meaningful relationship between the auditor type and institutional owners with financial collapse.

Freezing the resources as nonperforming loans, by decreasing the power of banks in loan granting has a negating effect on productivity. One of the most important ways of preventing the creation of nonperforming loans is accurate decision making on the date of granting loans; so while identifying the customers exactly, the loans are granted optimally and then the probability of default may be decreased. For decision making, some various tools are used that the most important ones are the customer's validation and credit rating. In the developed banks, the customer's validation and credit rating are performed by modern data sets and soft wares, however, in the Iranian banks, validation is often performed based on professional judgment and expert diagnosis and just by using some financial ratios. Altman, Fulmer, Springate, Zimijewski and Shirata models are of the most popular models of insolvency anticipation. According to the findings of this survey, the Altman and Springate models are suitable to use in the customer's credit rating system. The results of studying the anticipating ability of these models indicate that there is a significant difference between the results of the mentioned models, and the Altman and Springate models possess the most powerful ability of anticipation.

Using market returns and the returns of 130 listed firms during 2006-2010, this paper investigates the weak-form and semi-strong form efficiencies of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). A plot and test of daily market returns correlation are used to test the week-form efficiency; and an event study methodology, with forecasted EPS adjustment announcements of higher than 40% as an event, is used to test the semi-strong form efficiency. The plot and test of daily market returns correlation, based on regression coefficient, show that TSE is not efficient in week form. Also, the analysis of cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) indicates a delayed market reaction to forecasted EPS adjustment announcements after the event date. However, since the price changes of stocks traded on TSE are bounded by 5% by regulating body, such a delayed reaction to EPS adjustment announcements is expected.This paper is different from other Iranian studies because it investigates both week-form and semi-strong form efficiencies; and also, it focuses on EPS adjustment announcements as event in both a daily and a weekly window.

By decision making on the amount of cash dividend which is distributed among stockholders, retained earnings for extra investment and dividend yield for investors is determined. So, optimal dividend is an important issue for decision makers (in Iran, Annual General Meeting (AGM)).The main objective of this paper is to present a model, to find optimal dividend in which operational level of activities would be stable without any failure. Model is based on free cash flow and investment plan of the company. In this study, also the current situation of 433 Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) listed companies for the period of 2004 to 2008 is investigated. Data structure is in the form of unbalanced panel data with 1987 observation. The results show a significant difference between optimal dividend and approved dividend in AGM in TSE. Approved dividend in AGM is 3 times greater than optimal dividend. Also, no relationship between approved dividend in AGM and optimal dividend is approved and no relationship between approved dividend in AGM and net increase (decrease) in cash is approved. But, relationship between approved dividend in AGM and operating cash flow and last year dividend is approved.

May of research resulted that conservatism has influenced financial variables. Because important of price to book ratio in investment decision, this study investigates the relation between income conservatism and price to book ratio. Consistent with Basu (1997), earnings are generally conservative in the sense that the sensitivity of earnings to returns is greater than for "bad news firms" (those experiencing negative returns) than for "good news firms" (those experiencing positive returns). This study, test for differences in operating income conservatism across price to book ratio portfolios.Base on results of other search we expect negative link between accruals component and cash flow component of operating income conservatism with price to book ratio in Tehran Stock Exchange. But results of the search show that there is no relation between operating income conservatism (both accruals component and cash flow component) and price to book ratio in Tehran Stock Exchange.

A major concern over studies on value relevance of accounting information, relates to their underlying assumption that market prices provide unbiased proxies for fundamental values. Motivated by growing evidence in the behavioral finance literature that market prices deviate from their underlying fundamental values, and by using of residual income valuation model, this study argues, and demonstrates empirically, that the investor behaviors’ effect caused by growing influence of non-fundamental factors in investor pricing decisions, has an inclining trend and can’t be neglected in value relevance studies.Results show an inclining trend for investors’ behavior effect for companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) during the period between 1378 and 1387. The study demonstrates that investors’ behavior has a growing and important role in equity valuation and it is essential to take it into consideration in value relevance studies to prevent any misleading results and related explanations.

Dividend payout is among the information which has effect on investors’ decision making. There are many factors which effect this parameter. Company ownership structure is among such factors. Various investors groups could have various effects on firm performance and dividend payout. The most significant questions are: If dividend payout is in accordance with opportunistic goals proposed in agency contexts? If outside directorship have any effect on profit distribution? And, if these variables could be considered as indirect substitutes or supplements for mitigating agency costs?The research provides answers to the above questions. For this purpose, the information for 67 accepted firms in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) in a period between years 2001 to 2008 was reviewed by statistic techniques. Results show that there is a negative significant relationship between Outside Directorship ratio, Asset Structure, Business Risk, Debt Level and Dividend Payout ratio. Also, there was a positive and significant relation between Profitability, Liquidity and Insider Ownership ratio and Dividend Payout ratio. Firm size and Growth Opportunities have no effect on Dividend Payout.