فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 61 (بهار 1391)

In the last two decades, numerous theoretical and experimental researches have been conducted to study the asymmetric effects of monetary policies on real variables. Some New Keynesian economists believe that monetary policies can produce asymmetric effects on gross domestic production. In this paper, we analyze the asymmetric effects of monetary policies on production in Iran, in the time period 1959-2008. We use non-linear smooth transition autoregressive and logistic transition function models and for estimation we use nonlinear least squares estimator and Newton- Raphson algorithm. Our results show that the non-linear model fits better than the linear model and the effects of monetary policies on gross domestic production in two cases of low and high growth rates of oil income are different. In the studied period, expansionary monetary policies under the low growth rate of oil income increased the production more than in the case of high growth rate of oil income. Also, private investment and government expenditures in low growth rate of oil income situation increased the production more than in the case of high growth rate of oil income.

Investment as a dynamic engine plays significant role in all theories of economic growth. So, attracting investment, whether national or foreign, has been focused on by economic authorities. Some countries, such as Iran, need to attract foreign investment as well as to compete for them, because of the numerous factors such as: globalization and inadequate domestic resources for investment. This study investigates the impact of economic factors on attracting FDI and its effect on economic growth by combination of system dynamic and econometrics approaches. In doing so, an economic model has been designed and simulated by using annual time series data from 1978 to 2007, with focus on various factors like exchange rate, and national investment. Moreover, the data are predicted until 2025 on the basis of simulated model. The result shows that FDI have positive and significant effect on economic growth.

In this paper, a systematic model is used to estimate the effect of gradual elimination of subsidies, on VAT income. Reduction of subsidies influences consumption through raising prices as VAT is consumption based tax. In this paper, we use 3SLS model to find the inter relationships of subsidies with consumption and CPI during 1973-2008. Ultimately, the income gains of VAT during the coming years have be forecasted. The result of our study indicates that private sector's demand will increase following an initial reduction and a shift in constant value of demand curve. It means a change in consumption behavior model. On the other hand, we expect drastic rise in prices in 2010-2011 between 19-36 percent. We expect a gradual rise in VAT in coming years.

In this research, we use three eight-variable structural VAR models and seasonal data over 1991-2008 to investigate the effects of fiscal and monetary policies shocks on housing market variables in Iran. In order to achieve the goals such as price stability in this market, monetary and fiscal-policy makers should be aware about the effects of these policies. Thus, the main question is that how the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies impact the housing market variables in Iran? The results confirm that the fiscal and monetary policies are not appropriate instruments to control housing price in the short-run, but these policies could have an important role in determining housing price in the long- run: via money supply and government expenditures. On the other hand, the fiscal policy is not an appropriate instrument to control residential investment and housing starts, but the monetary policy could be an appropriate and effective instrument for the control of these variables.

In this study, after detecting the existence or non-existence of housing price bubble in the city Tehran by using poterba’s model and Tobin's Q theory during the period of 1992-2009, the influential factors on creation or intensification of bubble price the Tehran housing market are investigated. For this purpose, in the first step, the fundamental price of housing is estimated by ARDL model and the residuals of ARDL model are then taken as the "bubble component". In the next stage, following study of the effect of other markets performance and also M2 (Liquidity) variations on creation or intensification of bubbles in Tehran's housing market, firstly the trend is separated from "random-variation" shocks of these variables by using Hodrick-Prescott filter, and then ARDL model is estimated again; i.e., the bubble component (residual) of the first ARDL model has been taken as the dependent variable and the cyclic component of the effective variables on the bubble, have been incorporated in second ARDL model as the independent variables. The existence of two price bubbles under Tehran housing market in 1996-1997 and 2007-2008 are verified mainly in both methods. As well, findings show that overall inflation, Tobin's Q ratio, real rent, number of households and housing stock are the determinant elements of the fundamental value of house price in Tehran and these variables tend to long run equilibrium at the confidence level of more than 95%.

This research aims to estimate technical efficiency of agriculture bank and to identify the main determinants of efficiency at this bank. For this purpose, Stochastic Frontier Production Function was used. In this study, both Error Component model of 1992 and technical efficiency effect model (1995) were used. To estimate the models, we used variables such as granted loans and credits, cheap and expensive deposits, labor (number of employees), fixed assets (ac a proxy for capital), and the time to show the technological changes at the level of 36 decision making units (DMU). The results indicate that Technical Efficiency of agriculture Bank (the units) corresponding to Model I and II are 79.57% and 74.97% respectively. In Addition, the results show the existence of positive correlation between the efficiency of DMU and the size of the ir branch network, the share of deposit out of total deposits of the provincial state banks, the granted loans to Agriculture Sector. Finally, a negative relationship has been also witnessed with instability in management, higher share of deposit in total, bad debts and the time.

Given the limitation and scarcity of the natural resources and due to the important role of energy in development and growth of countries, determination of the factors affecting energy demand entails particular importance. In this paper, following the identification of the factors influencing the energy consumption, we estimate the effects of financial markets development, including development of banks and the stock market by employing variables like per capita national incomeand inflation, on the energy consumption and with using combinational data pattern of D8 countries in the period of 1988-2008. Results indicate the significant and positive effect of financial markets development on the energy consumption. The coefficients of banks development indicators obtained greater than stock development, that means the capital market is less developed in D-8 countries than the money market. The coefficients of energy intensity and urbanization are significant and positive too. But inflation has a negative effect on energy consumption. The results of this study emphasize the need for paying attention to the energy demand along with financial markets development in order to achieve planned economic growth.

Concentration is one of the important elements of market structure that deals with the distribution of market power. Geographical concentration is considered as one of the concentration dimensions that focuses on the pattern of the division of market power among different regions and evaluates the homogeneity and heterogeneity of distribution of activities among different regions. This type of evaluation could be helpful in understanding how are the industry structure and industrial policy and that the distribution of the various activities in the different regions, Therefore can it guide the policy makers. The, by purpose of this study is to measure geographic concentration of industries using the EG index for the year 2006 in Iran. And also to investigate the reasons have caused this kind of concentration. The results show that for more than half of the Iranian industries, there is severe geographical concentration. The highest geographical concentration belongs to the data processing and office machineries industry, in the order of 51%. The lowest is for food production and rubber products industries with the rate of 0/009 and 0/005 percent respectively. Natural advantages, access to raw material, transportation costs, as well as market access and spillover effects between industries could be mentioned as the most important reasons to create geographic concentration of industries in Iran.

This article aims to shed the light on the probable changes in international economic order. The hypothesis of study is that basic changes will take place in the economic system governing the world during the current century, due to coming new big players in to the international economic scene, weakening the position of leading economies, displace ments in political security system in the world and incidence of great international financial and economic crisis. The assumption is based on estimated reliable data pertaining to the economic situation of big economic powers and the said displacement during the coming decades. Different variables, including national power andpopulation show that US will not be able to continue it’s hegemonic position during next years. Economies like Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) have emerged as new regional powers which could challenge the hegemony of US. Hence, restructuring of global governing institutions is in the landscape: restructuring of the security council of UN in order to take more permanent members including India, restructuring of International MonetaryFund, World Bank, World Trade Organization so as to pay more attention to the egalitarian development, reforming the international settlement system and global currency reserve and also financial markets with a view to make global economy more stable and more balanced in terms of world demand, are among the main changes which have been analyzed in this paper.