فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال دوازدهم شماره 2 (تابستان 1391)

The Armey curve demonstrates a non linear relationship between government size and economic growth. This study used threshold regression approach in order to test the Armey curve relationship between government size and economic growth in Iran. Two sector production function proposed by Rati Ram (1986) and three indices of government size are used in this paper. The results reveal that a non linear relationship between all indices of government size and economic growth does not exist in Iran.

This paper examines the impact of official development assistance on government fiscal behavior in the Selected Asian developing countries by using Panel Data over the period 1990-2009. The aim of official development assistance is to help developing countries to speed up economic growth and development, income distribution and poverty reduction. But official development assistance is mainly channeled to the domestic economy through the public sector. However, the economic effectiveness of official development assistance has always been a controversial issue. While some researchers argue that such aid results into the growth of bureaucracies, others argue that it can lead to economic growth. The final effects of official development assistance depend on how it influences fiscal policy. Empirical results indicate that official development assistance has a positive and significant effect on capital expenditures and does not have a significant effect on government consumption expenditures and government revenues. Also, official development assistance is a substitute for government borrowing.

Withdrawing energy subsidies has inevitably welfare effects on the Iranian economy. The estimation of this effect can help policy-makers and planners to take the right decisions. In this paper, welfare effects of cash transfer are calculated for electrical energy subsidies using a social accounting matrix and the computable general equilibrium model. In order to evaluate the welfare effect of this policy, GDP index has also been implemented. Three scenarios of prices, cash payment of subsidies and model simulation are considered in this regard. The research findings reveal that as a result of these policies, GDP will dramatically decrease and the economy will fall into a recession. If the cash payments are financed through the following three methods; a) surplus government revenues, b) sales tax on electricity commodity, c) income tax, combined with price increasing policy, will cause a deeper recession and a lower rate of GDP as a result. This trend has a negative and reverse relation with the amount of cash payment subsidies and electrical energy price. Also, the rate of change will heavily depend on the sort of financial resources for such subsidies, as with an increase in cash subsidies and electricity prices, the result would be decreased level of GDP over time.

In this article, after defining a conceptional framework for defining and measuring shadow economy in Iran a close attention is also paid to a more precise definition of shadow economy itself. It is also tried to estimate it's changing process and size during 1975-2007 based on the new definition. Direct and indirect approaches are also briefly discussed to estimate the shadow economy. Then, the strengths and weaknesses of each method are pointed out. So far, almost all of the researches carried out in Iran regarding estimation of shadow economy have mainly focused on structural equation modeling approach using Lisrel. Here in this paper for the first time both structural equation modeling software programs of Amos Graphics and Lisrel are applied to estimate the shadow economy in Iran. A comparison of the process and output of both software packages is also done in this research. Finally, in addition to investigating the direct effects of the causal variables, the interactional effects of them on latent variable of the shadow economy are also analyzed.

The main goal in this research is to survey and determine the actual structure of the demand function through the BOX-COX consumer goods demand system which includes various forms of demand functions. Using nested and non-nested methods the estimation of consumer demand function is done. Nonlinear seemingly unrelated regressions are also used for the periods of 1982- 2007 via the combined statistics of income groups in urban areas in order to calculate uncompensated price elasticity and expenditure elasticity associated with the demand function estimate. Results of nested and non-nested tests show that the BCDS and AIDS models are near performance. The elasticity figures resulted from the BCDS and AIDS models have also revealed that food group is an essential one, social affairs (clothing, health, leisure and education) are regarded as almost luxury, and miscellaneous group (transportation and others) is quite luxury. But the group of housing (housing and furniture), in the BCDS model is almost luxury and in the AIDS model considered as essential. The elasticity of demand was confirmed by the demand law and cross elasticity of demand has also shown that the food group compared with the social affairs is considered as supplementary and to the group of housing and miscellaneous is regarded as a substitute. The social affairs group compared with the miscellaneous group is supplementary and to the housing group is a substitute and finally the miscellaneous group is considered as a substitute to the housing group.

In Economics literature many studies tried to examine whether stocks are perfect hedge against inflation. The answer is not conclusive. In this paper, using data from Tehran stock market, the relationship between inflation and stock returns during April 1991 till March 2009 is reexamined. The empirical results have shown that Fisher Hypothesis, which asserts that stocks are perfect hedge against inflation, has been rejected and also it is revealed that stocks are a weak hedge against inflation in Tehran stock market. Fama has already tried to explain why Fisher hypothesis did not hold in some situations. In this paper Fama hypothesis is examined and it is found out that Fama explanation for the rejection of the Fisher hypothesis is hardly acceptable and the negative relationship between inflation and real rate of return of the stocks in Tehran stock market can be attributed to temporary part of the inflation.

Sustainable tourism is a recent concept used to reflect the need for a comprehensive analysis and management of tourism both as business and experience. Tourism is actually one part of the efforts to achieve overall sustainable development. Sustainable development is environmentally nondestructive, technically proportionate, economically dynamic and socially acceptable from the viewpoint of people. Now, that sustainable development is one of the objectives of this era of tourism industry, evaluating its performance and effects in tourism destinations is essential. This paper aims at selecting and implementing an appropriate model to evaluate sustainable tourism development in Kish Island in south of Iran. To this end, KO`s conceptual model of sustainable tourism development evaluation has been adopted. This model has been developed via a goal-oriented procedure based on holistic as well as detailed approaches. In order to apply KOs` model, the following steps have been taken in a goal-oriented process: identifying and determining the tourism development systems in Kish Island; identifying the dimensions and indicators; selecting the scale of sustainability; determining the gradation of sustainability; and finally extending the evaluation maps (BTS & ATSI) of sustainable tourism of Kish Island. In order to follow this procedure, questionnaire has used to gather data on three principle elements of sustainable tourism development (tourists, host community and environment experts). Then, the results of the data analysis were shown on the BTS based on the five-point scale of sustainability. The results indicate Intermediate level of sustainability for the present status of tourism development in Kish Island. It was also observed that the sustainability level of human system is higher than that of the natural system. ATSI model was also applied as a supplement to BTS analysis in order to determine the individual sustainability levels of sustainable indicators of Kish Island. Thus, the index of noise achieved the highest sustainability level, denoting calmness of the island; and the index of performing environmental monitoring got the lowest level of sustainability comparing to other indicators of sustainable tourism development of Kish Island.

The harms and damages caused by consumption of damaged or dangerous goods is an undeniable fact and in some cases can be an extremely bitter and sad event. In order to support consumers in such a situation, the creation and use of preventive laws and regulations is the first step towards introducing damages. Passing legislation to compensate for damages incurred by consumers is the next step. Recognizing the responsibility of the sellers of damaged or dangerous goods has a particular importance for the compensation of harms to the consumer of this kind of product. In the area of responsibility of sellers of damaged or dangerous goods and compensation for the consumers of these goods, in addition to the general regulations and special laws protecting consumer rights, we can also use laws and regulations that have not necessarily been adopted with the rights of consumers specifically in mind. The laws and regulations relating to rules preventing harm to the consumers of damaged or dangerous goods have previously been considered by the authors in another article. In the present article one section of the laws and regulations that contain rules relating to compensation is considered. A methodology based on library research along with a descriptive and analytical approach has also been used in this paper.

This article examines the poverty rates for urban and rural areas of Kermanshah and the entire country using a Linear Expenditure System (LES) and Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ISUR) method during 1995-2007. Results indicate that poverty in rural and urban areas over the years in this province has an upturn trend. The findings also suggest that in rural and urban areas of Kermanshah, the group "foods" have biggest share of the poverty line. In rural areas of the country group "foods" have also the biggest share of the poverty line, but the largest share in country's urban areas belongs to group of "Housing and fuel". About elasticity the results show that in both urban and rural areas the group "other" and "appliances and furniture" are luxury.