مجله اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای
پیاپی 3 (بهار و تابستان 1391)

Nowadays، Trade has been introduced as an engine of growth and development in developing countries so States are required to participate in international trade more seriously. One Way for expanding participation in international trade is regional transactions. Border trade is one of the main indicators in communicating between neighboring countries and the livelihood of the frontier. Establishment of border markets makes the two countries expanding trade and avoid conflict and reduce political tensions with neighboring countries. So evaluating the economic performance of these malls is a good way for evaluating their situation. In this paper the export of border malls is evaluated with artificial neural networks we examine data from 1986 to 2010 in Iran using artificial neural method.. In this study there are 5 independent variables that is defined as the entrance layer for neural networks. The results show that ANN method has a small error less than 0. 004 and it shows that ANN is a good method for forecasting the ANN method. In this method the more important variable is non petroleum exports.

Appropriate export policies reinforce export competitiveness in both non-traditional markets and export products diversity. Diversity of export includes markets change in the composition of a target country and encompasses directly to changes in economic structure in the development process. For assessing the diversity among the target markets and exported goods a variety of indicators can be used. Therefore, this paper was alluding to the issue of diversity export using the cumulative distribution function and mean way above target export markets for various periods of separation during the development years after the Revolution, as well as a general review from the year 1368 to 88. Results confirm that countries that were among the most important during the early years of investigation and enjoyed high diversity, had a horizontal export diversity during the ending years. However countries which were not among Iran's export market or their share of total export was small during the early stages of investigation, enjoyed a vertical diversity of export during the ending years of development.

Studies about the effect of the ICT on the economic growth of developed countries in 1990s، have shown strong and positive direct relationship between ICT and economic growth in these countries. After a short period، this interactive relationship arises in some of the developing countries. But، since these countries have no necessary competition environment and have weak infrastructure، the condition of ICT’s effect on economic growth can be debatable. Following Quah (2003) and Pojola (2002)، in this study we survey and compare the effect of ICT on the economic growth of chosen developed and developing countries، using investment in ICT، capital stock، manpower، posts graduate registration number of students، and direct foreign investment data of 1995- 2006. We estimate the parameters of the mode with panel data method. With regarding to the comparable methodology of the research، we use a dummy variable in the model for analyzing in this way. The results indicate a positive and high significant relationship between economic growth and ICT in all chosen countries but stronger for developed countries.

It aims at analyzing the occupational structure of the states and metropolises understudy through a descriptive-analytic approach by comparing each economical section with reference level (entire country occupation) and also each economical section with its counterpart in national scope to determine the relative superiority and competitive power of each section. Finally، a prediction of the future structure of the occupational groups in 1395 would be presented. This study، with the application of census statistics and shift-share model، investigates the activity situation and determines the main activity groups in Khorasan Razavi and Isfahan states and two metropolises of Mashhad and Isfahan during the period of 1375 to 1385. The results indicate that from 16 main activity groups in states of Khorasan Razavi and Isfahan and urban areas of Mashhad and Isfahan، 1، 3، 6، 7 groups have a national (coefficient B) and local (coefficient C) positive growth coefficient respectively. These groups، possessing a potential economic growth for the region، are called economic winners. Nevertheless، there are also the economic losers including seven sections in Khorasan Razavi، five sections in Isfahan، two sections in urban area of Mashhad and one section in Isfahan metropolis. These areas have the negative coefficient B (combined part effect) and negative coefficient C (competitive effect) and will soon lose their part in the region occupation.

In this research، the relationship between business regulations and economic growth is examined. Nowadays، firms face high regulation in starting business، employing production factors and other procedures of business. It seems one of the important obstacles of production and investment is cumbersome regulation in business environment. In different countries of the world، improvement in business environment and removal of obstacles in front of private sector are known as an economic strategy. In this paper، regarding the importance of the subject، “Hardness of Business Regulations” index is made by using World Bank data for consideration of the effect of business regulations on economic growth. The model is estimated for 62 countries during 2003-2006 by panel data model. The result shows that hard business regulation has negative effect on economic growth in selected countries.

Stylized facts show that، housing has a remarkable share of household expenditures. Because of housing value added is fifteen percent to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)، and also the backward linkage between housing and other sectors is seventy percent، the role of housing in GDP is important. Therefore، it is vital to identify the nature of the housing market for the builders، consumers، and consequently for policymakers. The most important aspect of the housing market is its fluctuations that according many of researches are leading for business cycles. The subject of this study is the investigation of housing fluctuations and its relation with business cycles in economy of Iran from 1971 to 2009. The GDP have been considered as the reference variable، and building permits، housing construction، built area، residential investment، employment in the housing sector and housing prices are considered as the basic variables of housing market. First the logarithms of variables by using Hedrick–Prescott filter in two stages are decomposited to trend، stochastic and cycle. Then، we examined the relationship between cycles of variables by using volatility، persistence and co movement indexes. Results show that there is a most volatility in residential investment and most relative volatility in residential investment، employment in the housing and housing construction. Additional، estimated correlation coefficient indicates that all variables have high stability. Also، Granger causality test indicates: i) there is no causality between permits and GDP، ii) there is a causality of housing price to GDP iii) and there is a causality of GDP to other housing variables. In final section turning points analysis shows that housing variables (except permits) have co- movement with GDP. Residential investment and housing price are coincident with GDP، but the housing construction and employment in the housing are delayed.