نشریه اقتصاد پولی، مالی
پیاپی 3 (بهار و تابستان 1391)

In recent decades adopting unreasonable monetary and fiscal policies and uncertainty in model-making and analysis of data, has become unsatisfactory in macro goals. In a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study Iran economy, uncertainty is modeled as uncertainty about the true structural parameters that characterize the economy. In particular, the policymaker does not know the true numerical values nor the statistical distribution of the fiscal and monetary policy. The model considers the dependence of Iran economy to oil export. Oil sector and oil export revenues have been modeled as a separate sector and one of the government budget resources, respectively. Like in other New Keynesian DSGE model, firms face nominal rigidities and the intermediate-good sector is monopolistically competitive. Impulse response function of shocks show that non-oil output increases in response to productivity, oil revenues, money growth rate and government expenditure shocks. The finding shown that a policymaker that follows a control approach under uncertainty sets interest rates less aggressively to react against fluctuations in inflation or the output gap than in the case of absence of uncertainty. Model uncertainty has the potential to change importantly how monetary and fiscal policy should be conducted, making it an issue that can not be ignore. In main result, policy performance can be improved if the discretionary policymaker implements an optimum policy in the model. In effect, a fear of model uncertainty can act similarly to a commitment mechanism. When there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, it is optimal for policy makers to respond more aggressively to shocks than if the parameter were known with certainty, since the avoid bad outcomes in the future.

Appraising the profitability of the companies is very important in the decisions of financial information users. In this study, the relationship between modern liquidity indexes and cash flow ratios with profitability (financial and market-based measures) are examined. This study includes 108 companies of Tehran Stock Exchange during 2001-2009. The statistical method used to test the hypothesis is panel data approach; and three models (based on the dependent variables) are estimated for each hypothesis. The results show that modern liquidity indexes and cash flow ratios have correlation with together but they have different information contents and they can not be substitutes for each other and presenting both of ratios together will provide better results. In addition the results from testing hypothesis show that modern liquidity indexes and cash flow ratios (except the CFOTCL) have significant association with all profitability measures (Financial and market-based measures) and can present a good picture of profitability and firms return.

Banking system is one of the important sections in the economy. In economies those stock exchange and other financial intermediaries are inefficient this rule is vital. In this regard the efficiency of banking system should be mentioned in the economy.This paper examines empirically the effect of macroeconomic stability on efficiency in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) banking industry for the years 1995 to 2008 by Using panel data method. We use bank level data to study the efficiency of banks in MENA countries and provide possible explanations for the difference in the efficiency levels of banks. We find that banks, on average, could save 20 percent of their total costs if they were operating efficiency. Through the stochastic frontier approach (SFA) method we measure the cost efficiency of different banks in MENA including Iranian banks. Then we investigate the impacts of macroeconomic State on the efficiency level of banking industry. In this study are as inflation rate and GDP per capita. The findings show that, the stability macroeconomic stability has increased efficiency during the period of study.

This subject is important for economic decisions that can be effective monetary policy (Anticipated and Unanticipated Liquidity) in resolve of output shortage?The aim of this paper analyses the effective factors on economic growth in Iran by Using time series methods and in (1978-2008) period endogenous growth model.Results show that the ratio of private investment to real GDP(-1), ratio of government investment to real GDP(-1), the effective labor growth and anticipated Liquidity growth have a positive effect on economic growth. But the effect of unanticipated Liquidity growth on economic growth isn’t significant.

This research is about the efficiency of the banking system in small and medium enterprises on the development of cooperation with (DEA). The question of this Research is that: is the efficiency of commercial banks more than specialized banks in job creation of the cooperative sector through facility payment to small and medium enterprises?To answer, a sample consisting of nine operating banks in Ardabil province was selected and theix efficiency was calculated by using DEA method, constant returns to scale (CRS), variable returns to scale (VRS), decreasixy returns to scale (IRS), decrease returns to scale (DRS) models and optimization models (input shaft and output shaft). The Survey results show the average efficiency of commercial banks are more than specialized banks with constant returns to scale, variable returns to scale, increasing returns to scale, decreasing returns to scale models. The average efficiency of banking system with variable returns to scale are more than the average efficiency of banking system with constant returns to scale.

In this paper the effect of government size on social welfare (HDI) with using of time series data in period 1990-2006 in 52 countries as well as, a panel model is investigated. Human development index (HDI) is calculated with average of three indices: Life Expectancy Index, Education Index and GDP Index. In addition, two variables of government consumption expenditures as a share of GDP and government investment expenditures as a share of GDP for calculating variable of size of government are used. The impact government consumption and investment expenditures on the HDI with using of two separate equations and a panel model with fixed effects are estimated. Results suggested that government consumption and investment expenditure has a positive and significant effect on the HDI, but it reduced over time. In addition, the impact of a change in government investment expenditures takes longer to be fully realized than does the impact of a change in government consumption expenditures, such that half of the full impact of a change in government consumption expenditures on HDI is realized within 2.06 years, and half of the full impact of a change in government investment expenditures is realized within 2.15 years.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a crucial role in the economic literature, especially in developing countries. It is also an important factor for policy makers to analyze the relation between foreign direct investment and other important economic variables. One of these variables is export which is always mentioned in Iran's economic development programs. In this study, the relation between foreign direct investment and export (with the separation of oil exports, non-oil exports and total exports) between the years 1974 To 2009 has been analyzed by using cointegration method. The results showed a positive relation between foreign direct investment short-term positive relation between ng costs.en advertising intensity and profitability and a optimizations study we used theand non-oil exports in short-term. While the relationship between foreign direct investment and total exports and oil exports are negative. In the long-term, Although the relation between FDI and total exports and also non-oil exports is negative, the relation between FDI and oil exports is positive.

To day reaching a high economic growth rate is one of the main and important aim of any economic system. Today the economists accept that economic stability is a necessary issue, but is not enough for the economic growth, while economic instability is one of the main elements, which restrict economic growth. The aim of this research is analysis of the effect of stability index of economy on economic growth in the country and to reach the mentioned aim Spain has been used.The main results obtained are as follows: The effect of real Budget Deficit ratio to GDP on economic growth rate at the time of study (1973-2006)on short and long run is negaitive and meaningful. The effect of inflation and exchange rate has negative impact on the economic growth of Iran during the study the short and long run. During the study the effect of government consumption expenses ratio to GDP on economic growth is negative and finally the effect of government Investment expenses to GDP on economic growth is positive.In as much the effect each of three indexes economical instability on economic growth of Iran has been negative and the result show

Regarding the importance and high proportion of Iranian Manufacturing Industrie's export in nonoil export basket, and their impact on economic growth, it is essential that effective factors on the Manufacturing Industrie's export be investigated. This paper investigates the impact of human capital on the export of Iranian industries, using a panel data set of 2-digit ISIC manufacturing industries, over the period 2000-2007. Using the number of workers with higher education degree (as a proxy for human capital), the results show that human capital, manufacturing value added and nominal exchange rate have positive and significant effects on the export of the manufacturing industries. In addition, the domestic demand of manufacturing goods and terms of trade have significant negative effects on these industries export. Therefore, any effort to expand the higher education is highly recommended.