فهرست مطالب

دانش پیشگیری و مدیریت بحران - سال دوم شماره 4 (زمستان 1391)
  • سال دوم شماره 4 (زمستان 1391)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1392/04/09
  • تعداد عناوین: 8
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  • Seyed Majid Jedi* Page 261
    Background And Objective
    On 15 April 2012, following a heavy rainfall in northern Tehran, water of Mianrood’s channel placed in north Ekbatan enter the subway line 4. Flooding during a short time arrived near Towhid station in intersection of Azadi street and Chamran Highway such as some of stations like Ostad Moein and Habibolahi’s station is completely filled with flood. In this incident getting caught the train’s wagons by power outage could cause a major tragedy but speed act of relevant authorities in control center of Tehran’s subway in addition to warning equipments in line 4 prevented this major catastrophe. This experience demonstrated the importance of preparation of acting organizations inresponse to events especially earthquake risk in a big city like Tehran. Regardless of the causes of the incident and how responsible organizations respond in faced with this incident; the question is how has been achieved preparation in managing of abnormal situations and in this achieving process managers faced to what barriers.
    Method
    In this article we try to attend to factors affecting readiness with a different look of the past and using the experience of events occurring in the country and point of view of experts and managers and qualitative research method with an emphasis on Tehran.
    Findings
    Among the various factors affecting readiness, seven factors had the most effect: proper and common understanding of the situation, the creation of false beliefs in managers and despair overcome on readiness, different interpretations of incidents because the lack of common scenario, part view and organizational conflicts, correct selection and job stability of disaster managers, absence of emergency laws, exceeding public rescue efforts from government actions and redirection of management.
    Results
    Necessity of attention to the realities of disaster scenes such as unexpectedness of part of them and not rely on preestablished plans for dealing with the disaster scenes are the fact that all disaster managers must notice to them for getting preparedness.
    Keywords: Flood preparedness, Flood, Disaster management, Emergency situations, Disaster preparedness, Tehran subway
  • Kamran Shahanaghi*, Mona Sadeghi, Majid Heydari Page 275
    Background And Objective
    Efficient disaster management resulting from natural disasters such as earthquake is one of the most challenging subjects of city management especially in the metropolis such as Tehran. In this regard, determination and the implementation of effective prevention strategies or reduce the consequence and damages caused by the earthquake in Tehran is considered as a requirement. But before implementation of any preventive strategy, evaluating their effectiveness on the basis of specified and appropriated criteria was necessary and limitations of time and existing resources for prioritization of these strategies will be also inevitable.
    Method
    By conscious of the importance of such work, in this research reviewing the literature of disaster management and interview with seven experts of disaster management in Tehran, extract the effective prevention strategies and consequences of possible earthquake in Tehran and with definition of appropriate standards, evaluate their effectiveness by decision-making techniques of fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). For this, we used linguistic variables for comparison of strategies importance and weight of criteria in the form of paired comparison matrix and then we turn them into a fuzzy paired comparison matrix. Then by using the Chang decision-making technique of FAHP extract conclusive decision making matrix from a fuzzy group of paired comparison matrix.
    Conclusion
    At the end, we prioritize strategies based on specified criteria and strategies with high priority are introduced for prevention and control of consequences of possible earthquake in Tehran.
    Keywords: Earthquake prevention strategies, Disaster management, Earthquake prevention, Group decision making, Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method
  • Arezou Dorostian*, Mehdi Zare Page 288
    Background And Objective
    The existing earthquake early warning systems estimate the location and magnitude of earthquakes and then earth movements at a site are estimated as a function of the epicentral distance and soil properties of the site. In the past two decades we have seen a raPid development of methods for earthquake early warning systems.
    Method
    This review study was focused on an earthquake early warning system considering fault limitation. also systems with rupture geometry estimate and slip size on a limited fault in real time were described for earthquake early warning system.
    Findings
    In some systems, a method for estimating an earthquake fault dimensions in real time is done by classifying seismic records into near and far source. Peak earth movements were analyzed and used Bayesian model to find a function which can classify near and far source records in the best way based on these parameters. The diagnostic function is useful for estimating fault rupture dimensions in real, especially for large earthquakes. An analytical function for estimating slip on the fault result from near-source earth movement observations is constructed and used.
    Keywords: Earthquake Warning Systems, Warning time, Bayesian Method, Strong earth movement data, Slip on fault, Vs Method
  • Sara Pazooki Plasht, Vahid Yeghani Dastgerdi* Page 296
    Background And Objective
    In this article after reviewing different approaches of the management system of urban development towards disaster management topics and its impact, method of responding to urban disaster by urban management, causes of different performances of medical centers of different countries in response to crisis situations caused by the earthquake are investigated.
    Method
    The research method is a comparative analysis according to which different systems of urban development management for disaster management and the impact of these approaches on different performance of medical centers in different countries in response to crisis situations caused by the earthquake are investigated and classified in qualitative research methods. The statistical populations are urban management systems and disaster management systems in different countries.
    Findings
    This study shows that medical centers in countries such as Japan which disaster management of natural disasters deeply affects on site selection of medical centers. and instead of addressing part of any urban development plan to earthquake risk reduction and doing subject headings in this relation, a general strategy of riSk reduction was introduced at first which framework of comPilation of any urban development plan was located within this view and this general approach to end of the program would be affected all parts of the program and against the disasters caused by the earthquake have a better response than medical centers in other countries.
    Conclusion
    To improve the performance of medical centers in disaster situations caused by earthquake instead of addressing only site locating of medical centers, urban development planning system should be changed in such a way that disaster management should be considered as a dominant paradigm in this field.
    Keywords: Medical centers in crisis, Disaster management, Crisis response, Urban development planning
  • Ali Akbar Ghahremani, Leila Ghodratabadi* Page 311
    Background And Objective
    Development of new analytical tools put the opportunity for planners and managers to act with a deeper understanding of disaster control and making necessary preparations. among these tools, data integration models and location-based databases (geographic information system) provide possibility to make combined results from individual information layers. The aim of this study is risk analysis and risk-taking of incidents and natural disasters using GIS.
    Method
    This study is an applied descriptive method. The statistical population was experts of district municipalities, executive directors, disaster management secretaries of the districts 3 and 6 of Tehran municipality and the statistical samples were from zones 2, 3 and 4 of district 3 and zones 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 of district 6. Data was gathered from 59 samples of experts, executive directors, disaster management secretaries of districts 3 and 6 Tehran municipality through a questionnaire. Data analysis was analyzed using the correlation method.
    Findings
    Test of the first hypothesis showed that GIS software can be used for disaster risk reduction; test of the second hypothesis showed that of quick access to GIS hardware we can achieve a detailed plan for coping with disaster; the third hypothesis showed that using data can affect risk analysis and risk-taking in natural disasters; and a test of the forth hypothesis showed that there is a correlation between the role of experts familiar with GIS and risk analysis and risk-taking of natural disasters.
    Results
    There was a significant correlation between using of geographic information system and risk analysis, natural disasters and incidents risk-taking.
    Keywords: Geographic information system, Disaster management, Natural disaster risk reduction
  • Elham Dorostian* Page 322
    Background And Objective
    Most survivors after a natural disaster show symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Commonly, PTSD is the first reaction of survivors to the traumatic experience. If symptoms of post traumatic stress disorder left for over a month, there is a need for Psychological Interventions. This study investigated the interventions and the techniques used to reduce PTSD.
    Method
    This study is a review of studies and research findings related to psychological intervention after occurrence of incidents in Iran and all around the world.
    Findings
    PTSD has negative effects on psychological health. To reduce these problems the therapeutic interventions are used. Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT), Psychological debriefing, family Therapy and play therapy are interventions for reducing the symptoms of PTSD.
    Results
    addressing psychological reactions of disaster survivors by using cognitive behavioral therapy, psychological debriefing, play therapy and family therapy are necessary. Results of psychological interventions after an earthquake in Iran show that using such interventions after earthquake in improving of victims’ psychological health is effective.
    Keywords: Post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), Psychological interventions, Cognitive -behavioral therapy (CBT), Psychological debriefing, Family therapy, Play therapy, earthquake
  • J.C. Gaillard*, Fanny Navizet, Translated By Seyed Vahid Dashtian, Moghadam Page 331
    To date, the fate of prisons and prisoners in disaster has stirred very limited attention from both scholars and policy makers. However, anecdotic evidences suggest that both prisons and prisoners are particularly affected by disastrous events associated with external natural and other hazards. In fact, the spatial, social and political forms of exclusion and marginalisation associated with imprisonment coincide with factors which make some places and people more vulnerable. This study explores those linkages between imprisonment, marginality and vulnerability to natural and other hazards around three axes: (1) a spatial form of marginalization through the geographical, potentially hazardous, location of prisons and their secluded nature which isolates them from the outside world and assistance in facing hazards; (2) a social form of marginalisation which deprives already impoverished prisoners from further access to economic opportunities, health resources and interpersonal relationship which have all proved critical drivers of people’s vulnerability; (3) a political form of marginalisation which includes limited resources made available by the state and its agencies leading to poor, potentially vulnerable, and overcrowded facilities, along with prison’s lack of visibility in governmental disaster-related policies. This study draws upon a scoping study conducted in three prisons in France completed with sparse evidences available from the academic literature, government reports and media accounts. It further suggests ways forward for better integrating prisons and prisoners in disaster risk reduction policies.
    Keywords: Prison, Prisoner, Marginalisation, Hazard, Disaster