فصلنامه دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار
سال چهارم شماره 12 (زمستان 1390)

This research investigates the effect of changes percentage in dividend payout on future earnings growth in Tehran stock exchange. This investigation contains an independent variable that is called percentage changes in dividend payout and a dependent variable future earnings growth in one and three years period and 5 variable controller variables such as firm size, leverage, return on assets, E/P Ratio, lagged earnings growth(one and three years period).This research is based on yearly observations period from 1384-1388. the result of this research shows that changes percentage in dividend payout has positive effect and significant relationship on future earnings growth, it means when the changes percentage in dividend payout is increased the future of earnings growth is increased although this increase is low.

In this research, we assessed the extent to which stock market information can be used to predict leading indicators of the bank financial distress. Likewise, we specified and tested a logit early warning model of bank financial distress, designed for Iranian banks, which tests if market-based indicators add predictive value to models relying on accounting data obtained from stock market. On the other hand, we studied the robustness of the link between market information and financial downgrading of a bank in the light of the safely net and asymmetric information hypotheses. In the end, we concluded that some of the results of accomplished studies, support the use of market-related indicators in order to predict the financial distress. Other results, however, show that the accuracy of the predictive power of the financial distress depends on the extent to which bank liabilities are market traded. It means that if the bank undertakes to offer accurate data to the market, then a much better prediction can be made based on the bank data.

Emergence of a group of countries with the same growth path and divergence increasing augmentation between growth performance of different groups of countries cause ever increasing interest to review the effect of financial sector on the process ofeconomic growth in texts in an international level.Texts in which the relationship between financial system and economic growth is discussed are divided into two distinct groups. Financial liberalization and financial repression. In texts whichfinancial liberalization is being supported, currency or financial system make economic growth in a country, while in texts which the financial repression is being supported currency or financial system is considered as an obstacle. Recent international theoretical and practical findings emphasis on ever increasing financial system in explaining economic growth. They support the necessity of a strong financial sector with minimum financial crisis for economic growth. International evidences show the indirect relation between financial sector and growth of both direct and by increase in investment rate and productivity of total factors. Moreover there are evidences about bilateral relationship between financial sector and real sector of economy. This thesis shows possibility of existence of direct and indirect effects and feedback. So from the appropriate approach of vector error correction model, the maximum likelihood with complete information of Johansen is used and also for reviewing the direction of relationship between variables and determination of direction of relationship between financial sector and real sector of economy the method of Shins sons’ and smith Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model is used. In Iran the period which is being studied is1350-85. This thesis represents the progress compared to the past. First two models are used for estimating. The first model only reviews the effects of direct and indirect financial sector on real sector of economy. While in the second model the first model is completed with considering the possibility of existence of effects of feedback between financial and real sector. second, in this paper the model of (FI ML VECM Full Information Maximum Likelihood vector error correction model) is used to review the possibility of existence of multiple relationships between financial sector and real sector. The result is that in Iran during 1350-85 there is a positive and significant relationship between financial development and economic growth because obtained relationship shows that gross domestic product per capita has positive influence on volume of liquidity(as one of the index of financial development) and also the direction of relationship between financial development and economic growth is unilateral. And since there is a unilateral relationship between variables of financial developments and investment, there is no possibility of feedback effects in this model.

In this research, the effective factors on abnormal return of IPO companies inTehran Stock Exchange from 1990 until 2007 have been studied. So, for this westudied 73 qualified companies according to elimination method and studied them forperiods pf 12 and 24 months after entrance to stock exchange. Amazing six variablesof firm size, ownership type forecast error of earnings per share return on equity netprofit margin ratio and debt to net assets ratio, just return on equity (adversely) anddebt to net assets ratio (directly) had a meaning full relationship with abnormal return.But, in general, the analysis of multivariate regression showed that every sixindependent variable have the ability of justifying the 13.7 percent of abnormal returnat the time.

The risk of investing in financial market is one of the investor's major concerns, as market participants, confronting any kind of bonds will ask about the risk level. on the other hand, liquidity as an effective element in risking rate and return is considerably important on the stock exchange. Avoiding risk gets investors look for lower risk stocks with high liquidity to provide more financial security. According to studies and researches, it sees that free float stocks rate can affect on liquidity and stocks risk. Therefore, regarding free float and their changes can be efficient in analyzing market conditions and help investors make better decisions. The research is tried to study the relationship between Free Float with Downside Risk and Liquidity on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). Considering the years 2004 to 2008, we had 233 companies to test theories. We used Eviews and SPSS softwares to deal with the relationship between variables during 16 quarterly terms. The results confirm the significant relationship between Downside Risk and Liquidity with Free Float.

The aime of this study is to analyze the Relationship Between created shareholder value (csv) and Internal Performance Measurement in Growth and Value Companies considering to size during 2003-2009 in Exchange Tehran Stock. The results show that there was significant correlation between the refined economic value added in the growth companies and market value added in value company and shareholder wealth was more than the other variables and in classification of company in size, in growth companies coefficient between MVA in medium companies and REVA in large companies and in value companies coefficient between MVA in small and medium companies and shareholder wealth was more than the other variables.

The aim of this research is to verify effective factors of legal counterparty credit risk of Export Development Bank of Iran (EDBI), and design a probability of default measurement model using logit regression. 330 probability samples were selected from companies that took loans in year 1387 (2008-2009) including 256 good pay bank customers and 65 bad pay bank customers. Seven variables have been recognized which have significant influence at companie's credit risk among 13 selected financial ratios as effective explanatory variables in default probability based on statistics indexes and economic and financial theories. after significant examining total of the regression with LR statistic final model in 5% level of significance created by them. The results expressed that cash flow on total debt ratio (CSDT), assets turnover ratio (SATA), current ratio (CACD) and liquidity ratio (LR) have a reverse effect on credit risk. Free cash flow ratio (RETA), total debt ratio (TDTE) and current debts to net worth ratio (CDTE) have a direct effect on credit risk.

Nowadays, customer satisfaction has been considered as the most significant subject in value production by many organizations. Among these, banks can be highlighted in which customer attraction, attainment and improvement of customer satisfaction are the essential factors of success in their competitive environments. Distribution method of branches is also an important issue which has considerable effect on customer satisfaction. On the other hand, the resource shortage is a significant concerns of customer oriented organizations which may occur on various times and organizational structures. Relating to banks, it can be mentioned that they have continuously faced human and financial resource shortage for developing further branches and providing distinctive services. This research deals with finding a desirable approach for selecting optimized locations of new branches for private banks to achieve customer satisfaction and market dominance in competition with their governmental counterparts. Meanwhile, the cooperation of various departments in private organizations will also be considered. In order to harmonize the dispersion of branches, this thesis was aimed to find new methodology for future development of branches which can remarkably increase the market share of private banks compared to the governmental section if used by all components of private sector.