مجله سیاست گذاری اقتصادی
سال پنجم شماره 9 (بهار و تابستان 1392)

The impact of omittingthe energy subsidy policy on price and income distribution has been studying widely recently. Although many studies have been carried out on the positive and negative aspects of such a policy، its environmental aspect has been paid little attention. The main aim of this paper is to study the environmental impact of omitting energy subsidies for gasoline and diesel fuel. To achieve the aim، we developed integrated econometrics and input-output models. On the econometric side، two demand functions were estimated for gasoline and gas oil by using a state space method in a time-varying mode (change of price elasticity of demand over time). On the input-output model side، an environmental input-output model was implemented and integrated to the econometric model to estimate pollution reduction. The results show that the omission of subsidies for gasoline and diesel fuel in an economy leads to 6/2 and 17/7 percent consumption reduction respectively، which consequently causes a considerable reduction in such pollutants as and (25%، 24%)، and (7% and 11%)، and (18%).

This study investigates the effect of R&D efforts on the value added in Iranian R&D units over the period of 1996-2006. For this purpose، use is made of a Cobb-Douglas model which is evaluated by applying a panel data approach. The empirical evidence suggests that R&D expenditure and the research employees have a significant positive effect on the value added in Iranian R&D units. Therefore، policy recommendations of this study can be supportive of R&D activities by government and paying attention to the quantity and quality of research employees.

Reductions in the number of power outages are possible، but they are often very costly. On the other hand، reduction of power outages decreases the welfare costs of customers. This paper studies the Value of Lost Load (VoLL) in order to determine the socially optimal level of reliability. The costs of outages are estimated for Iranian customers in terms of lost production of firms and lost leisure time of households. The results show that، for Iranians as a whole، the average damage per unit of electricity not delivered due to an interruption is 38378 Rials/kwh. Moreover، large differences in damage are found between sectors، and the welfare losses of households (lost leisure) are as important as the lost value added in firms.

This study investigated the main determinants of smuggling goods in Iran during 1975-2009 using the Multiple Indicators-Multiple Causes (MIMIC) approach. The findings of the research show that the value of smuggling goods has been fluctuating from a maximum of 36. 52% in proportion to Iran''s GDP (at constant prices of 1998) in 1974 to a minimum of 15. 61% in proportion to the GDP in 1982 with an average of 20. 88%. The results also indicate that the rate of inflation، education، economic openness and the size of government were the most important determinants of the value of smuggling in Iran. The value of smuggling goods has affected both oil products and demand for money، but oil products tend to be more affected.

In this paper، the developments in employment have been studied by using a shift-share technique and the statistical census data of housing and population in Bam over the 1375-1385 period، i. e. pre- and post-earthquake. The existing data indicate that the employment structure in Bam has changed dramatically due to the occurrence of an earthquake in the study period، and that the structural change in terms of employees’ number has been industry-oriented and against-services. Indeed، the economic structure of this city has shifted toward industry and agriculture sectors. According to research results، the growth of employees in Bam has been greater than its share of national growth. One reason for this inappropriate growth is the existing large and positive competitive growth despite the negativity of structural growth. In other words، there were competitive advantages in Bam in comparison to the rest of the country despite inappropriateness of the activities combination over the study period، This has led to the fact that the competitive advantage has generally prevailed the structural growth and resulted in increasing employment in Bam more than it has been anticipated.

Analysis of electricity distribution structure and the forces affecting its efficiency as well as electricity industry decomposition and electricity distribution companies independence and privatization have been very important subjects of study in Iran. In this article، Translog stochastic frontier input distance function estimated by Maximum-Likelihood method and data from 36 electricity distribution companies within 1381-1388 period is used to analyze the structure reformation effect on the efficiency of these companies. The results show that translog function specification is preferred to Cub-Dauglas function specification، and met-afrontier model is preferred to frontier models. In terms of circuit density، companies can be classified into two groups: low-circuit-density (group 1) and high-circuit-density (group 2). In the long-run and short-run horizon of electricity distribution companies، no economic perspective is available. Network load factor increase causes efficiency decrease in the first group and، in the long run، efficiency increase in the second group. Increasing the residential consumer’s share from all consumers lead to an efficiency decrease in group 2 but has an insignificant long -run effect on group 1 efficiency. The share of underground network length only has a significant effect on group 1 efficiency and leads to efficiency increase in this group. Increasing the circuit density leads to an increase of efficiency in the long run and short run، which is highly significant. Generally، in the long run، the return of increase to scale is possible and privatization does not have a significant effect on efficiency.

We aim to estimate the natural rate of interest for the Iranian economy during 1352-87. From a conventional point of view، natural rate of interest is a rate in which output is at its potential level and inflation is at a constant rate. However، in this paper، we try to present a new definition for natural rate of interest. From this viewpoint، natural rate of interest is only a non-monetary origin of market rate of interest. By this rate، we have no constant inflation، and it can occur in under-full employment conditions. Our empirical work shows that natural rate of interest، according to the new definition، is lower than money rate of interest. This result confirms that the current unemployment rate is higher than its natural rate. To eliminate the unemployment gap and to increase real money supply، it is necessary to decrease the monetary component of the market rate of interest by reforming the monetary and banking system.