فصلنامه دانش پیشگیری و مدیریت بحران
سال سوم شماره 1 (پیاپی 7، بهار 1392)

Natural disasters are unpredictable events and when they occur, cause financial and life losses and disaster management is a mechanism in order to prevent crisis and mitigate the effects and its consequences. Disaster management includes four phases: preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation. In preparedness phase readiness is increased to promote the operational power of the community in order to be prepared them for the oncoming disasters. This study is an applied-descriptive research. For approving key criteria of preparedness in disaster management a questionnaire was designed which data were gathered from 257 managers and experts of two organizations of Disaster Task Force and Red Crescent and Rescue Department in 30 provinces of Iran. By using of confirmatory factor analysis, nine factors affecting to the degree of preparedness according to McIntyre and Myers model were confirmed in Iran. Effective factors were: 1) assessment of risks and vulnerabilities, 2) management and coordination, 3) laws and regulations, 4) quick warning, 5) provide lists of needed resources and assistance, 6) establish bilateral agreements, 7) protection of family, 8) protection of public assets, and 9) education and training. In addition, measuring the degree of preparedness of above mentioned factors shows fundamental weaknesses in disaster management in Iran which some suggestions are provided to enhance their preparedness level.

Sudden events such as tectonic earthquakes, flood, storm, volcano and explosion types (air, land, underground and explosions in the water), nuclear, chemical, (in mining, different industry sectors or military programs) and. .. cause crisis especially in urban areas. In managing such disasters, we should be able to normalize the situation in the shortest possible time delay. Because of the proximity to mines or nuclear plants or places capable of explosion, some of the incidents caused disaster by human agents and heating up the rumormongers’ market.Unfortunately, such complex crisis without comprehensive investigation fuels the falsehood news and increases crisis. The use of nuclear energy also generates uncertainty, news making and crisis in public opinion. News making such as several earthquakes especially from 1392 (earthquake in Bushehr, Sistan and Baluchistan and Isfahan, etc.) have occurred because of several nuclear tests in different parts of the country. This review study using different resources, documents and forms addresses the difference between earthquakes and explosions. For demystification, use of methods such as the discrimination of earthquake from the explosion is done by explosion seismology experts and with the help of modern tools and levers of mass media in crisis situations, could possibly manage some crisis related to explosions and reduce disorders in the society or minimize their magnification. The success rate of reducing crisis depends on the level of socialization of the society by various and effective methods.

Today with the increased complexity and uncertainty in the various processes of human societies, it seems almost an illogical and impossible process to predict the future through the generalization of past trends; so futurists study alternative futures instead of a state of the future. Analysis of multi scenario and scenario processing are such techniques that In addition to considering the compilation of some alternative scenarios for facing with the future, attempts to prevent human and human communities of becoming a passive and trapped creature in hands of environment and achieve the power of future prediction and control as far as possible. The purpose of this study is to introduce types of possible and applicable strategies in disaster management and survey the approach of community based disaster management as an approach coincident with overactive strategy with using descriptive research method. In this study, in addition to historical and interpretative action research of over-active strategy, different aspects of disaster management has been addressed with emphasis on community-based approach; then potential sources of community- based approach of disaster management has been investigated through content analysis and gathering of information in documentation method and attempted to plan proportional with mentioned capacities by suggesting overactive strategy. The findings emphasize on the necessity of compilation and implementation of scenarios coincident with conditions, features and specific capacities of urban neighborhoods with the purpose of readiness for dealing with different disasters and controlling its consequences. High adaptation between the overactive and community-based approaches of disaster management will provide an appropriate field for synergistic and effectiveness of these two approaches interact with each other.

Nowadays, complexity of organizations have significantly increased with enhancement of supply chain, outsourcing rate of activities and dependence to information systems. As a resultof these changes, not only the likelihood of operations confounding risks have increased but their intensity has been more destructive. On the other hand, narrowing the competition field in the business environment, has led organizations towards the establishment and using the different management systems. Business Continuity Management system is a comprehensive management system which with identifying possible disorders and their impacts on the organization helps to increase elasticity of organization against any disorder. This system is considered as part of an organization integrated management system which addresses construction, implement, operation, monitoring, review, maintenance and development of business continuity topics in organization. This study is an overview of different aspects of business continuity management by using various sources. In this study, at first we briefly review the basic concepts and history of business continuity management. Then based on existing national and international approaches which is developed for establishing of a business continuity management system, an efficient structure for implementing of this system in the organizations has been proposed.

United Nations Development Program (UNDP) was formed with the aim of developing third world countries. One of the aspects which prevent the UN millennium development goals and UNDP in 2000 is natural disasters. This organization by using of this subject helps to countries, especially developing countries with less ability; and has two major works: 1- Reducing the severity of effects that enter into developing process as unwanted variables and damage countries without adequate preparation such as natural disasters, communicable diseases and armed conflicts. 2- Implementation of some aspects of development which has not started by governments or its process is very slow. In this regard, it is trying to raise public awareness through the educational programs. Implementation of educational projects in the field of disaster management and also measures taken in Bam, Zarand and Qazvin earthquakes and Golestan flood, revealed that the UNDP has taken steps in the area of disaster management. This study is a review based on signed previous projects and also evaluating the performance of this organization in Iran. This organization has done some services in Iran which the most important one has increased after the declaration of millennium development based on help to countries and achieving of some goals until 2015. Investigating the UNDP activities in the form of aids and also cooperation which has done in most projects shows that organization’s activities has been effective and important.

Earthquakes in the world cause many human and financial damages.In this paper has tried to survey the behavior of organizations and local governments in important past ten years earthquakes all around the world and also from the point of view of disaster management and earthquake damages. This review study is based on the reports of different organizaitions and institutes after 26 December 2003 Bam, 12 January 2010 Haiti, 27 February 2010 Chile, 11 March 2011 Japan and Turkey 23 October 2011 earthquakes. After the study of these earthquakes, it was observed that Japan because of preparedness and correct management deal with the earthquake in the best way and in Haiti lack of preparation and inability of government from situation control, earthquake was turned into a major crisis. In Chile, disaster relatively to its highly magnitude was controlled appropriately. In Bam earthquake if pre-disaster measures had taken place, injuries would reduce.In Turkey, disasater was relatively well controlled. These earthquakes show the importance of take necessary measures before occurance of earthquake or other disasters which can lead to considerable reductions in the number of victim and since the earthquake did not only lead to human and financial damages, and most of the time leads to other disasters, it is necessary to take essential measures before disaster seriously in order to reduce earthquake damages. Also do planning for during and post disaster measures.

Sound scientific management of volcanic crises is the primary tool to reduce significantly volcanic risk in the short-term. At present, a wide variety of qualitative or semi-quantitative strategies is adopted, and there is not yet a commonly accepted quantitative and general strategy. Pre-eruptive processes are extremely complicated, with many degrees of freedom nonlinearly coupled, and poorly known, so scientists must quantify eruption forecasts through the use of probabilities. On the other hand, this also forces decision-makers to make decisions under uncertainty. We review the present state of the art in this field in order to identify the main gaps of the existing procedures. Then, we put forward a general quantitative procedure that may overcome the present barriers, providing guidelines on how probabilities may be used to take rational mitigation actions. These procedures constitute a crucial link between science and society; they can be used to establish objective and transparent decision-making protocols and also clarify the role and responsibility of each partner involved in managing a crisis.