پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 50 (پاییز 1392)

Taking into account the importance of manufacturing sector as an engine of growth of the economy, efforts have been made by policymakers to establish import-substituting and export-promoting industries. In this paper we have followed Chenery Model as modified by Kavoussi to estimate the relative importance of import-substituting and export-promoting industries and the role played by domestic demand in the growth of manufacturing industries during 1375-88 (1996-2009). Our results show that while export-promotion played positive role in the growth of manufacturing industries, its relative share, however, has been insignificant. Import-substitution had negative effect on the growth of manufacturing sector, indicating that domestic production has been substituted by imports, thereby meaning that deindustrialization has taken place in Iran during this period. However, our results indicate that the main source of industrial growth in Iran was the demand expansion.

This paper reviews the effects of institutions quality on the mechanisms that influence the turning of the blessing of oil resource revenues into a curse for Iranian economy and during 1973-2011. The main research question is that in a situation characterized by inefficient and malfunctioning institutions, the injection of oil revenue into the economy, how and through which channels, will cause resource curse to happen. This paper also shows that natural resources, like oil, dont lead to disasters per se; but this is the institutional structural framework in a country and its interaction with the rents of oil revenues that can lead to the curse of natural resources. This study is a descriptive analysis and the analysis has been carried out by using Institutionalism Approach. According to the findings of this research, the negative effects of oil revenues in Iranian economy caused by inefficient and malfunctioning infrastructures and institutions, lead to short-run and long-run decrease in economic growth and resource curse finally. In Iran, oil revenue shows its immediate effect through fiscal policy and the government's budget (oil price effect on government expenditure) and then through budget deficit, it is related to the monetary sector of the economy (great impact of oil price on liquidity).So volatility of oil revenues and the rigidity of the government budget compared with the oil revenues is one of the main channels which the resource curse have been developed in Iran and caused to liquidity growth and inflation. It has important consequences such as increasing imports, decreasing non-oil export and increasing share of value added of services sector in GDP; the increase in the share of value added of services sector in GDP is such that the service sector (mainly brokerage and intermediary services) exceeds more than 50% of Iran's GDP.

The issue of the impact of oil revenues on the economic performance of the countries that own these incomes is a significant part of the economic literature. One of the main reasons for the poor performance of resource-rich countries is the incidence of “Dutch Disease” in these countries. Considering this issue, after we review the literature on Dutch Disease, we first focus on the occurrence of Dutch Disease in Iranian economy and in the next stage, we study the effects of this problem on economic growth. To see if the problem of Dutch Disease has happened in Iranian economy or not, we have studied the production share of different tradable sectors (industry and agriculture) and nontradable sectors (services and housing) and to study the effects of Dutch Disease on economic growth, we have used the growth models related to this research area and we have estimated these models by applying Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method with Withe correction. The results of our study show that the Dutch Disease has happened in Iranian economy along with the increase in oil incomes, especially in 1970s and 2000s, and also the occurrence of Dutch Disease has had a negative effect on economic growth in Iranian economy.

In some of the new economic growth models, we pay attention to the effects of financial development on economic growth. This research investigates the relationship between capital market and economic growth in macro level during 1991-2011. The research is organized as follows: the introduction comes as the first section. In section II, we review the literature on the relationship between economic growth and capital market. The theoretical foundations of capital market and economic growth in macro level come in third section. Research methodology and introduction of main variables of the growth model, capital market indicators, statistical methods and econometric issues for our estimations come in the next part. In the fifth section, we introduce the model and explain the variables of proposed growth model. In the next section we test the hypothesis of our research. So we investigate the relation between capital market and economic growth in a macro model using principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized method of moments (GMM) analysis in several scenarios. The results of our research indicate that in a macro analytical approach we didn’t find a positive and significant relation between the financial development indicators and economic growth. The Policy recommendations of this research are developing the capital market through defining and presenting new financial instruments to absorb liquidity for efficient firms in Iranian capital market.

Oil revenues play an important role in the political economy of Iran. In this study we analyze the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on government expenditures and investment for the period of 1978-2008. We Apply the VAR model and impulse response functions (IRFs). The main result shows that oil shocks have asymmetric effects. It means that the effect of negative shocks on government expenditures and investment is larger than positive shocks. The results show that oil shocks have asymmetric effect on government expenditures and confirm the existence of Dutch-Disease and high dependency to oil revenues in Iranian economy. The use of stabilization and savings funds and diversification of the revenues of oil sector seems crucial to minimize the harmful effects of oil booms and busts.

The Islamic Republic of Iran amended tax law in 2001. The present study investigates the issue that whether amending tax law was effective on increasing investment industrial sector of Iran or not? Therefore, by referring to Tehran Stock Exchange Organization as representative of industrial sector in Iran and gathering required financial information from 2005 to 2009, we use F statistics and Hausman test and conclude that regardless of the conditions before amending tax law and introducing tax exemptions at manufacturing sector, enacting the new law does not play key role for determining investment rate and other factors such as banking interest rate, growth rate for housing prices and etc. are more important. Thus, based on fluctuations at economic factor and stability strategy for accumulating tax factors, it is recommended to conduct financial policies of Iran through running a stabilization period and complementary studies.

From the perspective of political economy, the majority vote rule is a base for taxing, financing and supplying public goods. It is obvious that the citizens’ satisfaction is the determining factor in public acceptance of paying taxes and supplying public goods with regards to the extent and method of supply public goods. However, if democracy (the majority vote) is related to the size of tax burden relative to public services, it is implied by the cost-benefit model that citizens evaluate the costs of financing the government budget by their received benefits. By applying this model, this paper examines the effect of democracy on the ratio of governments’ tax to expenditures by cross-country panel data for the period of 1996-2010. The results indicate that this tax-to-expenditure ratio depends on the public political participation and tax level increase can be observed robustly in democratic systems.

The main purpose of this study is to empirically study the financial efficiency ratios to examine the insolvency of activities of listed companies on Tehran Stock Exchange. The sample of the study consists of accepted companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. To achieve our goal, a sample of 30 successful companies and 30 unsuccessful companies is selected. The criteria for selecting successful companies was the simple Tobin indicator and for unsuccessful companies was article 141 of trade law. After collecting data, the financial ratios were examined using the statistical methods of multiple discriminating analysis and logit analysis for one and two years before the halt of operations of the companies. The results revealed that financial ratios of immediate assets to current liabilities, operating income to total assets excluding current debt, cash plus short-term investment to total assets, and average inventories to sales were factors contributing to the division of companies into successful and unsuccessful ones. The comparison test of the success ratio in the two samples shows that the logit method compared to multiple discriminating analyses predicted more accurately the halt of the operations for one year before the operation halt. However, there wasn’t significant difference between the two statistical methods for two years before the discontinuation of operations.