پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 49 (تابستان 1392)

The exchange rate is an important economic variable which affects other macroeconomic variables through different channels. This article estimates the effects of exchange rate shocks on macroeconomic variables of Iranian economy by applying Bayesian VAR method and using different prior functions like Minnesota and SSVS. The endogenous variables of the model are market exchange rate, monetary base, GDP deflator and GDP. The only exogenous variable of the model is the oil revenue of Iran. According to the result of the model, the BVAR-SSVS method offers the most precise forecast and OLS method has the least forecast power. At last, using the impulse response function, the effects of one unit shock in exchange rate on other macroeconomic variables has been assessed. The most important finding of this article is that, based on our data for Iranian economy, currency devaluation causes GDP to decline.

Illegal importation of goods (smuggling), is one of the most important barrier of economic growth in Iran. Smuggling is a serious challenge to development of industrial sector and entrepreneurship and a barrier to the expansion of productive capacity of Iranian Economy. Iranian textile industry is adversely affected by smuggling. In addition to smuggling, old and worn machinery, low productivity, lack of access to liquidity and low scale of production are the main problems of the Iranian textile industry.In this paper we attempt to evaluate the effects of smuggling on productivity of Iranian textile industry during the period 1996-2007. To achieve this goal, we first estimate the volume of smuggling and then, by applying the ARDL method, we analyze the effects of smuggling on the productivity of textile industry. Our findings indicate that smuggling has a significant and negative effect on productivity growth of Iranian textile industry.

One of the features of market structure is the extent of barriers to entry. According to economic theories, it is expected that when the barriers to entry increase, the degree of monopolistic power in industrial markets will consequently increase. Hence, in this paper we measure the intensity of barriers to entry and evaluate this structural variable in Iranian manufacturing sector. This study examines the factors that affect the extent of barriers to entry in industrial markets in the context of a dynamic panel data model with the technique of generalized method of moments (GMM). The findings show that the degree of concentration, intensity of advertising, research and development costs, rate of returns and economies of scale have significant and positive effect on the extent of barriers to entry in industrial markets of Iran.

The task of determining the factors affecting poverty is the first step in combating it and making an appropriate program to alleviate it. In this study, effective factors are identified by using micro-data from Household Income-Expenditure Survey of Urban Households in 2009 and applying an econometric model. In this article, panel data models with limited dependent variable is used. It is the choice of limited dependent variable that makes this study different from other papers that have studied the problem of poverty in Iran. So, after clustering data and calculating poverty line, a panel data with logit model, which is based on socio-economic characteristics, is estimated with maximum likelihood approach.The results show that among factors affecting poverty, the ratios of number of literate members and working members to the household dimention have the most significant effect on decreasing the probability of facing poverty. On the other hand, household size has the most significant effect on increasing the probability of facing poverty. Moreover Gender of the household head has a significant effect on the probability of facing poverty. Coefficient of this variable shows that the probability of facing poverty is reduced if the household head is male compared with the situation that the head of household is female.

This article explains the differences in size and growth of governments over time. We first divide the theories of government size into three theories relating to demand side, supply side and other theories. Then these theories are empirically tested by a conceptual model for 103 countries and selected groups of countries (Muslim and socialist countries, democracies, authoritarian countries and federal countries) during the period of 1990 to 2010. The results show that among the demand side variables, per capita income, inequality and urbanization, respectively with negative, positive and positive signs, have a significant effect on the size of government. In the case of supply side variabels, indirect taxes have a significant positive effect on the size of government. Concerning other factors (factors other than the supply and demand side variables), the three variables that are the ratio of aging population, the degree of openness of the economy and the rate of female participation in the labor market have a significant positive effect on government size. The results also show that political structure, ideological structure, and presence or absence of centralization not only affect the government size but also the effect of economic variables is different when these structural factors change.

The price index of shares of companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is one of the main variables in evaluating macroeconomic performance¬ of Iranian economy. One of the factors affecting stock price index of developing countries like Iran¬, that has high degree of volatility, is exchange rate uncertainty.The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on price index in the TSE for the period of 1994-2009 using monthly data. In this regard,¬ first, an index of exchange rate uncertainty is calculated using EGARCH models. Then, in order to obtain the relationship between uncertainty in real exchange rate and the stock price index, Bounds test approach is applied to the relationship between level data. The results show that in both long-run and short-run, there is a negative and significant relationship between the exchange rate and stock prices. Moveover, real exchange rate uncertainty has a non-¬significant negative effect on stock price in short-¬run. In the long-run, the relationship between¬ real exchange rate uncertainty and stock price is negative and significant. The results of Granger causality¬¬ test also show that bidirectional causality exists between the¬ real exchange rate and real exchange rate uncertainty in the short¬-run. While we could not find such an interactive relationship between other variables in the short-run, an indirect causality exists from exchange rate and exchange rate uncertainty to the stock price in the long-run.

The aim of this paper is to study the factors and policies that affect employment in Iranian economy. To accomplish this purpose, ARDL dynamic model is applied to annual data during 1974-2007. By this method, the labor force demand in Iranian economy is estimated. The results show that in the short-run, employment can increase by using the banking facilities and stimulating production. It is shown that in the long-run, the most important factor that can result in job creation is investment and the reason is that investment leads to economic growth and in this paper, it can be the leading factor of job creation. The size of the coefficients corresponding to employment in previous periods indicate low flexibility of labor market In Iranian economy and it is required to use proper policies and solutions to increase labor market flexibility in Iranian economy.