پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 45 (تابستان 1391)

In this study, in order to analysis the effects of subsidy on residential water demand, the long- term residential water function for the city of Tehran is estimated. All data are in the form of quarterly time series for the period covering the Iranian years 1379 to 1387. Independent variables include average water price, average household expenditure, consumer price index, total water price, subsidy, average rainfall and average temperature. The results denote that the decrease or elimination of water subsidy decreases the water demand in household section. Moreover, among all variables which affect water demand, subsidy has proportionately a greater effect on water consumption. Minimum households’ water consumption in Tehran is 170 liters per day and the greatest excess in residential water consumption takes place in summers and autumns.

An oil-producing country face fiscal challenges arising from the fact that oil revenue is exhaustible, volatile, and uncertain and largely originates from abroad. The dependence of government revenue on oil proceeds which are unpredictable significantly complicates fiscal management policy in short and long run. Sustainability generally, concerns current and expected future policies. If governments do not expect current and future policies to lead to an intertemporal budget constraint, then the fiscal process would be unsustainable.oThis paper has empirically examined the sustainability of fiscal policy in Iran and provides a theoretical framework for analyzing of the sustainability of fiscal policy based on the government intertemporal budget constraint. Co integration and multi co integration methodologies such as Engle-Granger and Johansen-Josilios as well as Barro’s (1979, 1986) Tax-Smoothing Model were used to evaluate fiscal budgeting processes in Iran. It was found that the fiscal budgeting process in Iran is not sustainable and the Iranian fiscal policy, as far as oil and gas income is concerned, is not a fully responsible policy. In addition the evidence in this research shows that the government spending and revenues in Iran are independent.

In this research, we try to specify the establishment location of private banks’ branches at the whole 22 areas of Tehran. We rank areas by using effective financial variables on bank services demand. For reaching this goal, we used Logit regression and numerical Taxonomi in a linear manner, and then by evaluating these two methods, we selected the best areas to establishing branches.

This paper applies the structure equation modeling approach to investigate the determinants of financial structure of Iranian companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. In addition, this study tries to unravel the financial structure determinants relative impact. The period of this research is start from 1379 to end of 1386. This study uses a MIMIC model of structure equation modeling to examine the financial structure determinants. We examine the effect of seven firm factors, which are growth, collateral value of assets, profitability, volatility, firm size, and industry classification on the latent financial structure. With the financial structure measured simultaneously by the ratios of short-term debt, and long-term debt to the market value of equity, our results show that collateral value is the most important in financial structure determinaion, followed in order by, firm size, profitability, growth, volatility, and Industry classification. Moreover, we find that short-term debt is the most important proxy for financial structure.

The US dollar is frequently used as the invoicing currency of international crude oil trading. Hence, the fluctuation and risk in US dollar exchange rate is believed to underlie the volatility of crude oil price and especially risk transmission to its market. When the prospect of the US dollar is not considered promising, a large amount of money will flow to the oil market, thus oil price will be driven up. As a result, some new investment and speculation opportunities can be derived for traders. For existence such relationship, controlling and monitoring the financial risk between these two markets is necessary. This paper applied new risk management tool, VaR methodology, and Granger causality test in risk to examine the risk spillover effect in both crude oil market and US dollar exchange market. Results show that, from the perspective of market risk, interaction between crude oil market and US dollar exchange rate does not seem strong. So the effect of extreme risk spillover between two markets proves quite limited.

NAIRU plays an important role in guiding monetary policy to control inflation and unemployment. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the so-called “Non- Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment” (NAIRU) in Iran. In this paper, different filters such as Kalman, Hodrick-Perescott and Band-Pass have been used during 1348-1388 (1969-2009). Also, The NAIRU estimations under the above different filters were compared to the actual rate of unemployment. Our findings indicate that the Kalman filter is more consistent with the performance of the Iranian economy. The average NAIRU estimated under Kalman filter was about %10.8 during the period. Using suitable monetary policy can reduce the so-called unemployment gap measuring the deviation between NAIRU and the actual unemployment rate.

Poverty traps as vicious circles preserve people‘s poverty and undermine the poor effort to overcome their own misery. This paper presents an empirical test for a subclass of poverty traps hypotheses. This test is based on the production function to generate multiple equilibrium, while must be present in the region between the equilibrium. Therefore, increasing returns should be strongest when the economy is transiting between steady state than when it is at or near in one of those steady states. We implement this idea by estimating the degree of increasing returns during growth accelerations and growth transitions for a panel of developing and developed economies using World Bank Industrial data. Results of this study show that economies of scale occur where there is collapse in growth. Nevertheless, there are no criteria to distinguish transitory ranges from non-transitory ones. Although, this assumption confirmed economies of scale in industry result in poverty traps.

This paper examines empirically the depth of financial development in the IRAN banking industry and it's comprision with MENA banking system during 1995 -2008 by applying Panel Data method. The study measures the cost efficiency of these banks using the stochastic frontier approach (SFA). The result shows that banks in MENA area, on average, could save 20 percent of their total costs if they were operating efficiently. We use a two- stage regression method to investigate the impact of depth of financial development on bank efficiency. The findings show that, the depth of financial development of the banking industry has increased the efficiency of banking system during the period of study.

Because of much dependence to oil revenues, Oil price fluctuations have much affect on Iranian economy. Since government possess a great deal of oil revenues and those financial government expenditure, then identifying manner and stringency of affecting shocks arise from oil revenue growth on inflation is very important. Subject of this paper is “Asymmetric effects of oil revenue growth on inflation in Iranian economy applying VECM method”. Our results indicate that both positive and negative shocks arise from oil revenue growth are inflationary.

The amount of industrial employment is very important in economic studies and it is one of industrial development indexes. There are various factors that effect on demand of labour in industry sector. These factors interest the employers have more or less demand for workers. Thus, the study of these factors in form of labour demand function in industry sector is very important. In this article, the labour demand function in industry sector is estimated during 1358-87 and the important degrees of these factors are studied in both static and dynamic models. The results of research show the demand for labour has a negative relation with the wage of labours, but it has a positive relation with the value added, capital stock and the labour productivity. Thus, regarding the importance of the above factors in economic policies, increase in demand for labour is very necessary.