پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 44 (بهار 1391)

This paper investigates some determinants of disinflation costs (sacrifice ratio) in some developing countries. The ratio is calculated by a SVAR model using annual data during 1985-2008 for 40 developing countries. The results show the ratio is decreasing in the status of high levels of initial inflation and central bank independence. Also, the openness of economy and capital mobility has positive effects on the ratio.

We study the volatility of business cycle of Iranian economy base on the wavelet approach. we found some synchronic business cycles with different power and frequencies (two to four years cycles, and trend that indicates the low frequency) which is contradictory to the traditional approach that highlights classic definition of cycle (with three to eight years cycles).On the other hand, exception to 1971-1981, oil and non-oil cycles are approximately the same which means that the non-oil sector has been affected by the oil sector volatilities and neutralization of this affection by economic policies has been failed. The other point is that oil cycle has completely different asymmetry than the non-oil cycle. We also found that the energy of trend is sharply more than other elements of wavelet which indicates that the concealed long run volatilities is major part of the energy of economic time series. This finding is compatible with other related studies.

In recent years, regarding to the general policies of 44 principle of fundamental law and government policies for highlighting role of private sector in economic activities, many companies of different and new fields have entered in stock exchange market. This entering has lead to increase in number of industries in this market. These industries can have critical role in increasing non-oil exports and situation of social welfare. Decision-making, on which industries, by regarding country's situation to increase in non-oil exports may have relative advantage, is important for policy makers in Iran. Therefore, this research has been considered for performance appraisal and ranking different industries in Tehran exchange market based on historical financial and competitiveness indices. In this paper, at first step, Herfindal index and some other filters for measuring degree of monopolies of industries has been used to decrease the number of industries in order selection the best and verified ones. At the second step, we ranked the industries by use of multi criteria decision-making technique-TOSIS. Finally, the results of this ranking are described and the usefulness of this model for ranking is been counted.

The purpose of this paper is review the application of organizational models and new strategies in financing cooperatives in Iran. Therefore, the questionnaire was designed and comments from 31 experts were evaluated Cooperative efforts with results obtained by quantitative measurement of each component of financial cooperatives field model using the best and most appropriate organizational methods financial cooperatives in the identification. The results showed that the traditional cooperative model organization in financial cooperatives and other not effective cooperative organizational models such as the relative investment, member - the investor, the new generation, cooperative, independent units with increasing investment, stocks - investing become a focus of investment company financial cooperatives in Iran are effective. The strategy, according to financial experts, traditional methods of financing through banks and other financial institutions, equity members, underdeveloped stock allocation from reserves and borrowing lending institutions specialized in financing cooperatives are effective. Financing strategy support, financing methods through the capital base, securities capacity, mandatory participation in equity plans, store excess return, the release of award shares beyond profit, pension funds members, units of participation investment programs rotary or rotary and capital reserves loans rotary (rotary reserves) in financing cooperatives in Iran are effective and ultimately direct financial strategy, methods of financing capital equipment through cooperative units, direct investment, market exception, document commitment, equity investment / certificate (Export Excellence shares), redemption of shares to be privileged, local bonds, stock plans employees, income derived from trade with non-members and percent of total stock in financial cooperatives are effective in Iran.

The tax capability of each region depends not only on people’s ability to pay taxes, but also on government’s ability to receive it. The great portion of a region’s informal sector indicates government’s lack of control over the economic activities in that region. Therefore,with the great share of the informal sector, ability of the government for receiving taxes and as a result the tax potential is reduced. However, part of the informal sector businesses, if supported, can be transferred to the formal sector (upgradable informal sector) and affect the tax potential of the society positively. This paper attempts to assess the effect of the upgradable informal sector of Kohgiluye and Boyer Ahmad Province on the tax potential of the region. An assessment of the lost tax potential in each major economic sector of the province indicates that approximately half of the informal sector’s businesses of the province is upgradable and can be transferred to the formal sector.

Defaulted loans are biggest challenges in Iranian bank system. One of the major reasons for this phenomenon is the lack of validate scoring systems for loan payment in the banks. The banks can predict default risks of the borrowers, by using these systems.However, a data base has been established for gathering borrower's information and providing validates reports in previous years, but, there are defects to use these reports in the bank system comprehensively.This research aims to design a practical validate scoring model.We have used the information 290 legal (small and medium size) borrowers in three banks. The results show the suggested model is significant. In addition, the model was tested on the basis the information of another sample of 40 legal borrowers; the results confirmed the before ones.

This paper investigates the trade liberalization (tariff rate decrease) effect on the total factor productivity (TFP) in Iranian industrial firms during 2000-2004. The TFP firms are determined by production function approach, and then the relationship between tariff rates and firm features (size, ownership type and the concentration degree of the industry relating to the firm) is analyzed. We showed that the impact of trade liberalization on the TFP has been positive, but the effects of firm features are different. Also, the impact of tariff rate on productivity in private firms is stronger than in the government owned firms. In addition, the impact of trade policies (tariff rates decreasing) on productivity in monopoly firms is stronger than competitive firms.

The independence of central bank is important because if this bank turns into the financier of government budget deficit, this will be in conflict with its main responsibility which is the control of inflation and keeping of price stability through money supply control. In this paper, we study the effects of central bank independence on the liquidity management system of Iran and 21 oil exporting countries during 1994-2008. The Panel data econometric method has been applied. The GMT index has been used in this study which is one of the most inclusive indices in study of central bank independence. The results for low independent central bank countries, explain that these countries use expansionary policies in the framework high liquidity growth when oil price increases, while, the results for countries with higher independent central banks, show these countries are able to use controlled monetary policies over oil price increase.

This paper investigates the relationship between the institutional setting, in terms of economic freedom, and entrepreneurship, as measured by self-employment in a panel data setting covering selected countries and the time-period 1990-2009. The measure of economic freedom includes five indices; size of government, the legal structure and security of property rights, access to sound money, the freedom of trade internationally, and the regulation of credit, labor and business. The empirical findings show that a small public sector, better legal structure and security of property rights tend to increase in entrepreneurship. Also, we find that the freedom of trade internationally and less regulation of credit, labor and business is negatively correlated to self-employment rate.

Nowadays, leasing industry is recognized as one of the strategic options in economic development. Leasing companies have a great profitability and are faced to the most risks. Credit risk, business risk, residual value risk and exchange risk are some of important risk in leasing companies. Among them, credit risk is the most important. Subsequently, making logic relationship between risk and return is the essential element to devote optimally resources and to guarantee profitability leasing companies.In this paper, on the basis individual costumers data extracted from Leasing Iran Khodro Company database (since1381-1384) and using tow sample t-student test, and determinant coefficient, we found five variables as factors affect credit risk. They include, net monthly costumer income, loan time, loan amount, net monthly guarantor income and experience. In addition, we apply tow credit risk models (Logit & Probit) for leasing loans. The results of Wald, Log likelihood and Wilk΄S Lambda tests indicate that the efficiency in Logit model (%98.39) is more than Probit model (%97.44).

Non-Pricing strategies are used by firms to increase sales, expand market share, retain existing and attract new customers. These are methods and techniques that don’t involve a change in the price of the product. The non-pricing strategies are more important for banks, because they are restricted in using of them. Iranian banking system has recently experienced a structural change through authorizing the establishing private banks as well as recapitalization and partial privatization of the existing commercial banks. This reform has led to more competition among banks. Therefore, the banks are seeking different strategies to spread their role in the market. Due to the policies of the central bank in setting up the same rates of deposit and loan interests for all the banks, the non-price strategies have been most importance and priority.This paper attempts to investigate the impacts of such strategies on Iranian bank's performance using a sample of 12 commercial banks in the period of 2002-2007. We used a single-stage frontier approach. This model allows estimating firm level efficiency and the sources of inefficiency simultaneously. A super efficiency model has also been used for the sake of consistency and cross checking of the results. In order to control the effects of other determinant factors of bank's performance such as ownership status, experience, risk and market concentration, these factors are also included in the models.The results indicate that regardless of the method used, the non-pricing strategies such as difference in products, advertising and electronic banking have improved performance of the banks over the studied sample.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate factors that affect the PRIDE automobile demandin Iran. We used Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method in the period of 2004-2008 monthly. Results indicate that the price elasticity of PRIDE is -2.59 and -2.46 in long-run and short-run, respectively. The income elasticity of PRIDE is 4.06 and 4.32 in long-run and short-run, respectively. In addition results show that PRIDE automobile is substitutable with 1600cc automobiles and public transportation, and complementable with petrol and other cars. Also, forecasting results show the share of PRIDE automobile in household's expenditure will decrease during 2010-2012. Therefore PRIDE automobile demand comes near to the saturation point.