پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 36 (بهار 1389)

In this paper, the model of foreign direct investment attraction into Iran’s Free Trade- Industrial Zones has been estimated on the basis of related theories and studies. The results of this study illustrate that inflation rate and domestic investment respectively have negative and positive effects on the attraction of foreign direct investment into those zones. For the success in absorbing foreign investment, the results of this paper also show that some policies other than mere liberalization policy of foreign capital inflow are necessary. If Iran successfully create a suitable economic atmosphere in order to motivate free domestic investors, both in the national economy and in the zones then Iran may manage to attract foreign investors. This study indicates that high inflation rate and low attraction of domestic investments are implications of country risk, which lead to less attraction of foreign investments to the zones on the other hand, small amount of domestic capital in free zones in turn decreases the attraction of foreign direct investment into zones, as a consequent effect on foreign investment.

This study examines the relationships between FDI flows and trade to Iran. Theoretically، FDI and international trade can be substitute or complementary. Within the early theories of foreign direct investment and multinational firms، FDI and foreign trade were considered to be substitute. New international trade theories emphasize، the complementary relationship between FDI and foreign trade. This is the result of introducing new aspects in the models like increasing returns to scale، product differentiation and technology-differences among nations. We study empirically the impact of foreign trade on foreign direct investment (FDI)، using data on inward FDI to Iran from 1973 through 2006. We find that foreign trade can encourage FDI and also FDI can increase trade. On the other hand، results show that there is a complementary relationship between trade and FDI. Beside trade، GDP، Exchange rate and some economic variables are affected by FDI.

One of the most important economic challenges that every economy of the world is facing is how to reach to a sustained growth in the long run. The aim of this research is to survey about the effects of business cycle volatility on economic growth in Iran from 1340 to 1387. Some of the variables used in this research were growth of gross national product، volatility of business cycles، inflation، inflation uncertainty and the index of financial depth. In this survey، at first the volatility of business cycles and inflation uncertainty were computed by generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscdasticity model. Then we estimated the effects of volatility cycles in the long run for economic growth by using co-integration test and vector erorr correction Model. The results of this estimation show that the business cycle volatility causes a decrease in the long run economic growth. The reason is that the volatiity of economic production causes uncertainty in production and then as a result of that a decreas in investment and long run economic growth.

This paper is based on a cointegrated I (2) and I (1) variables models money، price، output، real effective exchange rate and interest rates in Iran over period 1990 quarter 1-2006 quarter 4. The empirical findings demonstrated long-run homogeneity between price and money was broken down and the hypothesis of the stable money demand relationship was not confirmed in the period، instead of this we found a relation which determines inflation based on liquidity ratio and real effective exchange rate. Money supply growth significantly explains output growth in the period. In addition، the paper provides further insights about the effects of financial repression on output and determining the behavior of opportunity cost of money in Iran.

In this paper، we have evaluated the efficieny of selected countries in the field of knowledge economics by using mathematical programming model. Currently، for efficiency evaluation two methods are being used: 1) Parametric method 2) Nonparametric method. In this paper، we are using the Nonparametric method that is based on mathematical programming model to categorize Iran and selected countries according to knowledge economics efficiency. The main advantage of data development analysis in comparison with other methods (for efficiency evaluation) is its evaluating units that have several inputs and outputs. In this paper، according to output and input during 2005، we evaluated the efficiency of knowledge economics according to two assumptions constant return to scale and diminishing return to scale. The resoult of this research shows that according to the first assumption; Turkey, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria and Kuwait have the most efficiency in comparison with Azarbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan and United Arab Emirates. and the efficiency average based on this assumption is 72. 9 percent. According to the second assumption; Azarbaijan and Uzbakestan join to the efficient countries and their efficiency average base on this assumption is %75. Finally, according to the resoults of this research (if we consider Turkey as a pattern), efficient countries must increase their efficiency by following Turkey’s performance.

In this paper، we study inflation dynamics and then examine the relation of inflation and inflation uncertainty. At first، for filtering of predictable term of inflation series، we used time series model. In this way، some test like ADF، PP، KPSS were also used. The results show that integration of inflation series is neither one nor zero. Then we examine the hypothesis of fractional integration that means long memory of inflation. With applying ARFIMA model، we show that inflation has fractional integration with degree of 0. 4 that is implying that Iran’s inflation has long memory and then every shock to this variable remain long run. In the next stage، we used ARFIMA residual for test GARCH model then that was used as inflation uncertainty. With granger causality test we find that the causality between inflation and uncertainty is bilateral.

Identifying various aspects of the inequality among provinces is the first process in creating a regional balancing program through which regional development goals would be obtained by untilization of limited production resources. The imbalance in agricultural development process has caused an expanding gap of productivity level among all provinces. This paper tries to develop and demonstrate a combined set of models (Mamlquist Index using Data Envelopment Analysis with non-convex frontier) to get regional development decision processes by introducing only one real province as the reference province. The main objective of the present paper is to measure and describe barley productivity and regional trend and inequality in Iran to optimize and utilize resources in agricultural development plan. So based on research goals we formulated agricultural productivity indexes and data was collected from the statistics and information، affiliated to the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad during two perieds. Research method is nonparametric with Mamlquist Index based on Data Envelopment Analysis to analyze regional differences total factor productivity growth rate and its elements among province. The result revealed that، there is an enormous inequality among provinces. Although less developed province indicated better performance than developed provinces in this regard. Howeer، to decrease the inequality among the provinces as a whole we need to have a real change in agricultural policies in the distribution of agricultural facilities such as machinery equipment land and resources as well as agricultural infrastr nature (Water Energy; transportation etc…).

Economic inequality in Iran is affected by the existing within inequality and among all provinces in the country as a whole. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the Theil inequality index inequality within and among all provinces including urban and rural regions. In doing so، the micro 2007 household data is used. The results show that the share of the urban and rural inequality within provinces is 8% and 11%، respectively. Therefore، inequality between provinces has not considerable effect on the inequality as a whole. According to these results one may suggest to the macro province policy maker to concentrate on inequality reduction just within the provinces.

One of the striking phenomena in recent years has been the speed of globalization. Iran has been preparing the ground for joining WTO with the purpose of boosting her non-oil exports and taking full advantage of international market opportunities. However, questions remain on which of the non-oil sectors Iranian economy can compete most effectively, once integrated into global markets. The answer to this question has a bearing on the investment and structural reforms that are needed before Iran enters the highly competitive global environment. The problem, therefore, is to study the comparative advantage of and support given to the various sectors in the Iranian economy. Since the hand made carpet industry is one of the sectors that promises a highly non-oil export potentialities, this paper concentrates on this industry and utilizes the Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) to calculate indices of comparative advantage in the hand made carpet industry (case study of Isfahan's hand made silk carpets). Results show that the index of the competitive ability of Isfahan's hand made silk carpets is 88% and its comparative advantage based on unit cost that would hold when Iran joins WTO is 79%. These indices indicate that Isfahan's hand made silk carpets scores high both in terms of competitive ability and comparative advantage.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of the control variables on the Iranian stock market by using optimal control theory. We try to determine the optimal path of the economic control variables like money stock, exchange rate, taxes, government expenditure and state variables such as market value of stocks and transactions during the third and fourth economic plans. The result shows that the fiscal policies has been chosen much more effective than the monetary policies. We study four different alternatives. Based on the first, second and third alternatives, the model reaches to the optimal path of the number of transactions while for the model does not reach the optimal path of the market value of stocks. In the fourth alternative the government can reach the optimal path of its economic variables by choosing expansionary monetary and fiscal policies along with depreciation of exchange rates simultaneously.

These days one of the important issues of the world is the measurement of efficiency of production per unit. Stock exchange organizations also play pivotal role in attaining investment and improvement of economic signals in different countries. Therefore، while considering this role and the numbers of branches of stock exchanges in Iran، it is important to measure the efficiency of these branches and compare them with each other. In this study، we have used DEA technique، to assess the efficiency achieved by each branch and then we ranked them on the basis of the points collected by each branch. We have also، tried to define the conceptual system of assessment for efficiency of each branch and we have also collected the related data. Then on the basis of DEA technique we have assessed each branch for its efficiency. Finally، we used Team Expert Choice software to rank branches of stock exchanges accordingly