پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 30 (پاییز 1387)

In this study, following Barro in an endogenous growth model, we try to determine the characteristic of an optimal economic growth. By considering two kinds of public expenditures that are: public capital and public services. The role and impacts of the regarded parameters such as time preference, depreciation rate and change in planning periods on the growth of economy is also investigated. Dynamic optimization is utilized in determination of optimal growth for Iran’s economy. For different planning periods and with various scenarios, the optimal tax and growth rates for variables such as gross national product, public capital, public services, private capital and consumption is simulated. The paper concludes a negative relation between time preference, depreciation and economic growth. It also finds a positive relation between horizons of planning periods and economic growth.

This study estimates optimal commodity tax rates regarding efficiency and social justice. A many- person Ramsey rule and Bergson – Samuelson social welfare function are used for estimating optimal tax rates. We need to estimate price elasticities of commodities before computing optimal tax rates. These elasticites come from estimation of Almost Ideal Demand System based on household expenditure data, in urban area,s over the period of 1993-2005 and 10 cost deciles. The Almost Ideal Demand System has been estimated by using Panel Data approach. The contrast between efficiency and equity is examined by including a parameter called ''Rate of inequality aversion parameter'' in social welfare function. Optimal tax rates are computed from Lagrange – approach solution of nonlinear systems under alternative assumptions about rate of inequality aversion parameter and fixed Tax Revenues. The Results show that when inequality aversion parameter equals zero, optimal tax of different commodities will be equal. Otherwise, they are different. The larger the parameter, the greater the difference. Tax rates on commodities which have large share in expenditure of lower deciles decrease while tax rates on other commodities increase. Also, with increase of the parameter, marginal cost of the social welfare decreases.

In this paper, we surveyed the most important quantitative factors that influence energy productivity in Iran’s large manufacturing industries over the 1999-2003. A few models were run by using pooling data technique, covering manufacturing units at two digit level of ISIC classification. The results obtained indicate that factors such as capital/ energy ratio (K/E), real cost capital, labor/ energy ratio (L/E), real wages and electricity used/ total energy ratio are most influential factors affecting energy productivity, respectively. Productive engineering labor as percentage of total productive labor which was taken as a proxy for technology has had positive and meaningful effect on energy productivity. In addition, in view of present trend relative energy prices didn’t have meaningful effect on energy productivity.

Comparative advantage indicates the power of a country in producing a commodity or service by lower cost in comparing to the other countries. This concept is one of the applications in international economics. Metallic and nonmetallic minerals industry is one of the important and considerable industries in our country which has high potential for export. In this study, comparative advantage of this industry was investigated in Iran using three indices include revealed comparative advantage, location quotient with respect to value added and location quotient with respect to employment. Time series data during 1963 to 1999 were used. Also, Mobarakeh Company as the most important unit in this industry, was investigated by domestic resource cost index. Results indicate that in four years of fifth period of development program from 1991 to 1994 metallic and nonmetallic minerals industry has comparative advantage. This advantage is more pertain to metallic minerals sector. In the fifth period, the average of revealed comparative advantage index is equal to 1.37, meanwhile indices of quotient location with respect to value added an employment were in the least their amount. The result of domestic resource cost index for Mobarakeh Steel Company showed that the corporate has gained 434 Rls for each kilogram of steel. Also, the results of investigating factors affecting the revealed comparative advantages index indicated that, export with the elasticity of 0.68 has the high effect on the growth of this index.

With regard to globalization process which lies in front of developing countries, finding a trade commercial pattern for countries in the world trade with a suitable trade partners and those countries which don’t want to be left behind in the world trade, is a necessary and important task. In this study the trade pattern of intra industry and inter industry of Iran in the year 2003 has been investigated with the gravity model. The results show that Iran in the iron and iron alloys sector and non alcoholic beverages and tobacco is functioning with intra-industry and differentiated product pattern, a fact which shows the stability of intra industry pattern of Iran in the regional and global level in these sectors.

Using the Markov-Switching methods with monthly data 1989-2004 for an Early Warning Model for OPEC member countries is estimated. Doing so, the real effective exchange rate is used as the dependent variable, on the other hand, the ratio of M2 over foreign assets, ratio of foreign debt to foreign assets, ratio of internal credits to deposits, growth rate of foreign assets, deposits growth rate, growth rate of M2 over foreign assets, growth rate of oil income are considered as the explanation variables. According to the estimated model, the average growth rate of the real effective exchange rate in OPEC has been about 0.14 percent during the tranquil (Null Situation) and about -0.36 percent during crisis time (1 situation), which were not statistically significant. Volatility of the real exchange rate in tranquil time and in crisis time have apparent differences. Volatility in tranquil time was low and about 2 percent and in crisis time was high and about 29 percent. This shows that the volatility of exchange growth rate has been an appropriate variable for distinction between tranquil and crisis periods. The results have indicated that probability of liquidity crisis within OPEC, 12 months after the sample period (after September 2004): Indonesia about 93%, Algeria 81%, Venezuela 71%, Iran 68%, Kuwait 67%, Libya 65%, Nigeria 56% Saudi Arabia 55% and no crisis in Qatar and United Arab Emaret.

The aim of this study is the financial repression in Iran’s economy during the period of 1968-2006. In the first part of the paper, the concept of financial repression, theoretical and empirical literature of financial repression and economic growth have been considered. In the second part of the paper, while financial repression indicators introduced, by using three separate models, the effects of financial repression on Iran’s economy is reviewed. The results of regression models revealed that the financial repression has no significant effects on Iran’s economic growth, but it has negative effects on economic efficiency.

According to macroeconomic theories, interest rate is investment cost which is important in decision process that organized by private sector. But, there aren’t any consensus among economists about this hypothesis. Also from theoretical point, the effects of interest rate variation on saving rate is ambiguous. In fact, it is not clear that what will be the sign of elasticity of saving respect to interest rate fluctuations? therefore, in this paper, we assessed the simultaneous effects of interest rate on economy by macroeconomic model framework. We found that the interest rate have negative, but negligble, impact on investment of private sector.

The main aim of this study is to present a suitable model for promoting and developing privatization system scientifically in Iran. In line of this purpose, the main concentration was put on reviewing Iranian and global literature, examining scientific and executive experiences of the researchers, studying and taking into view main privatization parameters and expertise of the experts as well. Then, questionnaires consisting privatization parameters were distributed to test validity and reliability of Cronbakh Alpha coefficient and duly confirmed. To analyze the data collected, two sets of statistical descriptive methods such as frequency, percent and multi variable analysis were also used.