پژوهشنامه اقتصادی
پیاپی 26 (پاییز 1386)

Development investment of the government is the essential first step to the productive operation of the private sector, on the condition that it is followed by efficiency and has a harmony with macroeconomics volume and structure. Disregarding law in preparation and operation of development projects has burdened national economy with a huge volume of incomplete projects in a long term and made the construction period too long. It’s an inflationary phenomenon which is led to the low degree of economic growth, while the social dissatisfaction and reduction of political legitimacy and sovereignty are the two other outcomes. A midterm solution is an attempt to improve the political and administrative process of decision-making, re-description of the role of the government, clean up and improving the technical and operational system. Starting new projects should be avoided for a short-term unless for emergency cases and restart of incomplete projects should be prioritized on the base of efficiency and justice parameters in order to prevent all the operations going beyond available sources all the time.

The history is a valuable mine of human experience and historical school was one of the heterodox schools of economic thought that by criticizing the teachings of classical school, has used history and it’s objective investigation as a cornerstone for the revise of political economy. The most important criticism of historical school to classical school are: universalism, imperfect psychology based on self-interest and extremism in deductive method. On the one side, historical method is in conflict to Austrian school and on the other hand was a background for the emergence of American Institutional school. The most important teachings of historical school are: Application of historical method in the analysis of economic phenomenon, using inductive method, using economic statistics, belief on the uniqueness of each economy and thus the necessity of indigenous development model, avoiding abstract models in economic analysis, the necessity of finding the interaction of economic phenomenon to non-economic factors and an endeavor to understand the evolution of economies. In this paper by using the teachings of historical school, we argued that adopting historical method, provide the possibility of analyzing historical backwardness of Iranian Economy, Understanding evolutionary structure of Iranian Economy and preparing indigenous model of economic development in Iran.

The main purpose of this paper is to analys the short and long run relationship between budget deficit and trade deficit, import and export, and Government revenues and expenditures. Also sustainability condition of trade deficit and budget deficit is examined. For doing so, we apply the time series econometrics techniques. The results show that to over come the budget deficit and trade deficit, the Government should, in the short run, decline budget deficit. In order to do this, we recommended that it has to decrease the taxes and increase the domestic deposits. We could not find any cointegration relationship between government revenues and expenditures, export and imports, and two deficits.

The Purpose this paper, is to investigate the effect of oil revenues on real exchange rate in Iran’s Economy by using a macroeconomic model, which has been estimated by 3sls regression technique and annual data during 1965 to 2003. Provided that the government has taken no policies, the simulation results depict that, a rise in oil revenues will increase GDP, domestic price levels, money supply and real import, respectively, but will decrease Non-oil export. By regarding simulation results, we could say that nominal exchange rate will primarily decrease by oil revenues increase both in short run and long run. Afterwards, it will take an increasing trend and eventually, will go back to the initial equilibrium level. We will also observe real exchange rate decrease (increase) via the nominal exchange rate decrease (increase) in short run. However, in the long run, the real exchange rate will decrease by oil revenues boom and before the oil revenues increase will reach a lower level relative to its initial one.

Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is one of the main factors in international competitiveness whose increase or decrease will enhance or reduce a country's export competitiveness. So its maintenance or enhancement will have positive effects on a country's trade balance and vice versa. Other factors effect on REER too. Economic shocks may change the REER in the short-term but in the long-term, the REER is determined based on fundamental variables. So popular form of equations has been provided to assess the effects of fundamental variables on REER. The intended model was chosen after different estimations and studying them theoretically and empirically and in terms measures of goodness of fit. The results of the estimations indicate that with respect to different statistics, the thesis model is that which the dependent variable is the REER based on export unit value. This model has been estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method using the calculated data for REERs and the data relevant to other variables. The estimated relationship for REER indicates a long-term one in which all estimated coefficients has the expected signs and comply the theoretical foundations.

The aim of this paper is to assess the role of government expenditure and government economic policies on nonoil economic rate of growth during 1959-2003. The result indicate that nonoil economic rate of growth depends negatively and significantly on the rate of growth of the ratio of labor and depends positively and significantly to the ratio of total investment, government investment and the rate of growth of the ratio of government expenditure, while the rate of growth of the ratio of money supply, the rate of growth of the ratio of export and import to nonoil GDP have not been influential and significant. In other word results show that these policy variables have not a significant effect on nonoil economic rate of growth. While finance policy has significant impact on nonoil GDP rate of growth, monetary policy does not. In addition, we discussed various shocks and their immediate effects on different variables through application of impulse response and variance decomposition and tried to show the effect of changes on variables and on nonoil economic rate of growth accordingly.

Stock price index is one of the most important benchmark for measuring stock exchange operation in all of the world’s financial markets. In this paper, we study the effects of stock price index on money demand function for the period 1370-80. In this Paper, we use two definitions for money, broad or narrow definition. The results indicates that these two different definitions of money i.e. M1 and M2 are suitable variables in money demand function of Iran. In other words, both definitions establish a long-term stationary equilibrium relationship. The stock price index as one the variables in the demand function for money, has significant effects. The stock price change has two effects on money demand function which are: positive income effect and negative substitution effect.

An investment company is an entity which its main duty is rendering services on professional investment management to the shareholder's invested capitals. Investment companies are financial brokers who sell stocks to people and invest the profits on a variety of portfolios. Given the enhanced competitiveness among organizations, nowadays utilizing information technology provides an edge over competitors. In this regard, developing strategic planning of information systems to fulfill the objectives of the investment companies is absolutely crucial. Making use of balanced scorecard and critical success factors methodologies as strategic planning of information systems methodologies in this research, strategic processes of investment companies as well as their critical success factors have been identified. Comparing the different nature of the investment companies with other business companies has been another motivation for this research. Presenting a model to determine the critical success factors in strategic planning of information systems for Iran’s investment companies considering cost leadership, product differentiation, and niche market strategies are among the achievements of this research.

This paper presents a two-stage model for fully ranking insurance where each agent has multiple outputs and inputs. In the first stage the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is run for each pair of units separately. In the second stage, the pairwise evaluation matrix generated in the first stage is utilized to rank scale the units via the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Both DEA and AHP are commonly used in practice. Both have limitations. The hybrid model AHP/DEA takes the best of both models, by avoiding the pitfalls of each. AHP/DEA ranking does not replace the DEA classification model, rather it furthers the analysis by proving full ranking in the DEA context for all units, efficient and inefficient. This approach is applied for ranking 23 Iran insurance agents that worked for 2003 and 2004 years. The results reveal that 929 agents have the highest rank and 949 agents have the lowest rank in the studying period.

Commercial banks basically offer their services in three fields: resource mobilization, financial resources allocation and their banking services. These services are offered by their branches all over the country. These branches are essential into different grades: Independent, Grades 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. The scope and responsibility of bank branches depend on their grades, so the bank management is interested in ranking their branch network. Any ranking should depend on three basic factors: method of grading, indexes uses for ranking, the weights for each of the indexes used In the first place, we intend to survey different ranking techniques, reviewing three different Taxonomy, Principal factors and a combination of the two. We have tried to define 24 different indexes in different fields where. The coefficients of these indexes are determined by two different methods. In this ranking the indices are not independent and have co-linearity. We have tried to incorporate this problem of co-linearity. Later, Taking into account these factors and correcting for the colinearity problem all the 2005 branches of Bank Tejarat have been ranked.

Researchers mostly categorize firms into two groups- growth firms and value firms-based on using either P/B or P/E ratios separately, as valuation variables to study on forecast power and ability of the Residual Income. In Iran, similarly, investors and researchers use P/E and sometimes P/B ratios, as measures of stock valuation and pricing. This study investigates on Residual Income trend of the categorized firms by using P/E and P/B ratios jointly. Therefore, research hypotheses have been formulated as: declining firms expectedly decrease their future Residual Income and turnaround firms, mature firms; growth firms expectedly increase their future Residual Income. Competitive firms expectedly do not change their Residual Income also. By applying the correlation test to all firms, which have been listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during years of 2000 to 2005, the firms were founded out to be in confidence level as a result. Then correlations of P/E and P/B ratios with the other variables including Residual Income, changes and growth of the Residual Income and ROE as well were tested that the result have indicated that the applied Correlation Coefficient to the categorized groups is more identified and be stronger compared to pool data application. I observed that the relation between P/B and variables is more constant and stable rather than to P/E ratio, suggesting the importance of categorizing firms facing to similar economic situations to expand the area of investigations on Residual Income trend and be helpful for future researches.