فصلنامه راهبرد اقتصادی
پیاپی 7 (زمستان 1392)

The housing market is one of the most important capital-financial markets as its upheavals have always had major impacts on national and global economies. The market is constantly faced with speculative volatilities، which is different in nature form the inherent volatility of prices in other financial markets; since the rise and fall of prices are so massive and uncontrollable; or in other words، prices are bubble-like. Among the most important exogenous factors directly or indirectly causing the formation of this phenomenon، are monetary policies. In this regard، the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary factors on the housing market bubble with using the ARDL estimation model and annual data over the period 1990 - 2011. In this way، short-term، long-term and dynamic effects of the followings on the housing price bubble are estimated: exchange rates، gold prices، stock Index، liquidity growth، interest rates، inflation and oil revenues. The results of this study indicate a significant relationship between all independent variables and the dependent variable during the study periods. Moreover، error correction coefficient in the dynamic relationship is equal to -0. 58 which is implies stability of the model.

The main challenge faced in the execution of civil partnership contracts within the usury-free banking system has turned to be a Shariah concern in the recent years، which is turned hindered the realization of the banking system''s strategic objectives for economic development in Iran. While legal partnership contracts do not have any of the problems of civil partnership contracts، banks have been deprived of the advantages of these contracts due to the limitations imposed by supervisory authorities. The present research aims primarily to present the banking system with a model based on utilization of the benefits of legal partnership contracts; the key feature being the realization of real profit and loss. This will pave the way for the realization of strategic goals of the banking system; i. e. the cooperation of the banking system with real economy and expediting economic growth and development. Research hypotheses are: 1. It is necessary to revive legal partnership contracts in the banking system; and2. With the help of legal partnership contracts، PLS banking model is presentable. The methodology employed to test the hypothesis is descriptive-analytical which includes a case study of Sepah Bank performance in legal partnership contracts، accompanied by a documentary study of valid sources as well as legal documents of related authorities. The study of Sepah Bank performance in legal partnership contracts shows a real profit of 30% as well as the creation of infrastructures for many industries including but not limited to: steel، cement، tires، roads and construction. Benefits of the utilization of legal partnership contracts for depositors، credit institutions، and most importantly for the realization of strategic goals of national economy have made the revival of these contracts for the banking system to be inevitable. The present paper presents practical models for the enforcement of legal partnership.

This paper attempts to study the effect of financing method and growth of firms'' profit while it also identifies the influencing factors on firms’ external financing needs. To do so، a sample including 30 large firms active in Tehran Stock Exchange has been considered during 2001 – 2011. The data set is extracted from each firm''s financial statements. Using Panel Data approach we find that comparing to other factors، short-term financing is more important to achieve higher growth rates. Profit sharing model among firms is considered to be one of the reasons for lower growth rate of firms in Iran. In this regard، the results imply a positive relationship between rise in firm''s incomes and profitability. Moreover، an increase in long-term liabilities implies long-term financing needs to pay back the firms’ long-term debts in order to reach a sustainable growth rate. Investment and dividends also do not have an effect on firms'' long-term financing need to support their continuous growth.

There are Two important approaches about the relationship between government size and economic growth. According to Keynesian approach the economic growth is determined by government size. According to Wagner law، on the other hand، the government expenditures are results of economic activities. Thus، if the society''s real incomes increase، the public expenditures grow and the government size increase too. Recently، some empirical studies showed that there are bilateral causality between economic growth and the size of government. Our study tests Wagner’s law (using various specifications proposed by Huang) and compares it to Keynesian view، for the case of Iranian economy during 1965-2010. To analyze، we use annual time series including unit root test and two casual bounds test approaches based on unrestricted error correction model (UECM) (Pesaran، Shin and Smith (2001)) as well as Toda and Yamamoto''s Granger non-causality test (1995). Findings show a one-way causality from government size to economic growth (Verified Keynesian view). Some reasons are non-optimal management of government and the structure of the Iranian oil-dependent economy.

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model which investigates the most important factors on prices as an index of economic stability. In this model، the economy is divided into 5 sectors: production، production factors، money and price، foreign trade، and government; while it also considers the relationship between different sectors. The effect of policies has been examined in 7 scenarios. The results of the study show: 1. Increasing government expenditure led to an increased CPI. 2. Decreasing independence of Central Bank led to an increased CPI. Comparing the results shows that the independence of Central Bank has the most important effect on CPI. According to the policy-makers should strengthen the private sector. Independence of Central Bank would be beneficial. Moreover، due to the important role of oil in Iranian economy and the transfer of shocks into the economy، paying more attention to the production is necessary. Finally، Since investment on human capital leads to increased production and decreased CPI، paying more attention to the investment in this section/sector is necessary.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on value-added of industrial sector، within the theoretical framework of the Dutch disease. Co-integration method is applied to evaluate and test hypothesis، using data during 1978-2010. We have first introduced a VAR model of value-added of industry using previous studies. Then، after investigating the stationary status of the variables and determining optimal lag length، the effect of shocks on the co-integration vector and the test of cumulative recursive sum of residuals were carried out to verify the presence of structural breaks. Finally، we investigated the long-run equilibrium relationship among variables. The results show that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Analysis of the results shows that rise in oil revenues has a direct impact on the real exchange rate and domestic inflation and، it also has an indirect negative effect on the value-added of industry. The results indicate that the best way to deal with this phenomenon in the country is proper management of foreign exchange fund to prevent excess liquidity in the economy.

For sustainable and appropriate development in tourism industry، powerful and integrated management as well as coordination between public and private sectors are very important. The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative performance of tourism management. The year 2000 to 2008 were considered in this study، which represent the third Development Plan as well as the first four years of the fourth Development Plan. In addition، descriptive- analytical research method، mathematical model of data envelopment analysis and three input and four output indexes were employed while the statistical population covered all provinces of Iran. The results show Tehran as having the first rank in both development programs. Moreover، the differences between highest and lowest performances have decreased. The greatest increase and decrease of efficiency is related to Semnan and Tehran. Sensitivity analysis showed that the most sensitive index among input indexes was the number of bed''s index and among output indexes it was the number of domestic tourists'' index. Also، Bed occupancy rate index has greatest potential for growth. Finally، it is noteworthy to mention that the weakness in tourism infrastructures are greater that weakness in output of any province.