مجله تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
سال پنجم شماره 3 (پاییز 1392)

This article is to analyze and determine the level of agricultural development and the amount of imbalance in the rural areas in West Azerbaijan province and districts for the years from 2001 to 2009. To achieve this goal، 48 defined developed indicators using two methods، factor analysis method and numerical taxonomy were measured. The provinces in terms of degree of development in the agricultural sector were ranked. On the other hand، the effect of bank keshavarzi’s microfinance on agricultural development was measured with using a panel data model in same province for the years from 2002 to 2008. The results show that the levels of agricultural development districts of West Azerbaijan province during the years studied، from 2001 to 2009 the level of agricultural development has reduced. By the way the results with fixed effect show that the effect of bank keshavarzi’s microfinance on agricultural development is positive and significant.

Paying attention to the relative stability of prices and forecasting prices could play an important role in controlling the instability of prices and ultimately reduce market risk. Comparison of different methods is important in the forecasting issues. In this study Wholesale and Retail Prices (Weekly Prices) of Rainbow Trout Fish will forecast with contrasting between forecasting power of the ARMA method and Artificial Neural Network method and choice the better one. In this study the Feed-forward network that is one of Back Propagation networks is used. The using data are from first week of farvardin 1388 to last week of shahrivar 1390. Before usage of predict methods، the random or non-randomized nature of the data were examined. Both of Price Series are predictable and non-randomized based on Random tests of Wald-Wolfowitz، Wallis-Moore and Durbin –Watson. Series are stationary in levels based on data stationary test (Dicky-Fuller augmented). Results of Forecasting show that in the model ARMA compared with artificial neural network (ANN) error rate is less based on four criteria forecast accuracy evaluating. Then it has higher power in forecasting the price of Rainbow Trout Fish. In the ANN model 80% of data for training network and 20% for testing network have been used. The results of accuracy equality test of the two methods (MGN) shows the ARMA model is also better than the neural network model in forecasting retail and wholesale prices significantly.

Recognition and Economic evaluation of ground water resources is the first step toward optimum operation of these resources. Over pumping of ground water، especially in arid and semiarid areas، has had negative effects on environment. This is because of low price of water in relation to its real value. In this study، using a sample of 110 farmers، the number of displacement of Irrigation wells and its costs due to over using of groundwater in Rafsanjan plain was investigated. Analysis and regression methods were used in this regard. Average of number of times is 2/18 times in Lifetime for each well and Transportation costs 750000000 rials، was estimated in each time of displacement of well. Between these cases with over drafting of ground water، and decreasing quality and quantity of water has had significant relationship in the one percent. For elimination or reduction of ground water degradation and its effects، this paper recommended to Economic evaluation in addition to the social costs and benefits.

Government in the rural housing support program has targeted low-income groups. In this program، determining targeted groupsbased on the income criteria faces challenge. Accordingly، thisstudycompares the incomepovertyapproach with the multidimensional housing povertyapproach in determining target groups in ruralhousing support program. In the incomeapproach the totalexpenditure to income ratio and in the multidimensional housing poverty approach the security، density، having andsewagesystemsdimensions were applied to 19707 Iranian rural householdsin 2010. The results indicate that housing poverty prevails on the vast majority of rural households and income poverty encompass (57. 041%) of them. The depth of rural housing poverty is suchthatrural households deprived from about two-fifths of housing indicators and their income poverty gap is 1. 844%. In continue، results show applying the income poverty approach to assess target groups in support program of rural housing exclude 42. 954% of rural households experiencing housing poverty. Accordingly، a change in approach to support rural housing through shifting toward the multi-dimensional housing poverty approach is recommended.

Coping strategy Index (CSI) is one of the indices to measure food security. This index is one of the simplest، most accurate and prevalent indices of measuring food security in any society which correlate easily with other indices of food security. Coping strategy indices are classified in to two groups of food and non food coping strategies. In this research work with usage of non food coping strategies food security situation of rural households of Gorgan is measured. A sample with the size of 267 selected with application of stratified random sampling method from five rural district of County. Result of K mean cluster analyzes shows that rural households of Gorgan are classified in 3 groups including low level of food insecurity، moderately food insecure and severely food insecure. Results of LOGIT model indicates that variables such as annual income، employment situation of household head، chronic illness of one of household members، education level of spouse، number of household member، education level of household head، and access to credit have effect on the value of nonfood coping strategy.

This study attempts to forecast the export of Iran''s date for the period of 2010-2016، using the econometric methods، ARMA، GARCH، and the methods of computational intelligence، artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. The data from 1967-2009 were used. The data from 1967- 2005 were used for modeling and the four last years، were used to examine forecast ability. Results indicated that the neural network has the lowest Forecast error comparing other methods followed by Genetic Algorithm. According to the superiority of neural networks in forecasting the Iran''s date export، forecasts made by this، shows the decreasing-increasing trend in the exports of Iran''s date.

Fluctuations in exchange rates due to the effect on other economic variables، are the major issues discussed In each Economic. Non-oil exports is one of the most important variables that are influenced by the exchange rate fluctuations. According to the proposed policy، in the economic development program of Iran، non-oil exports has a specific place. In the past three decades، numerous fluctuations in the exchange rate in Iran has، consequently، The importance of uncertainty caused by the impact of exchange rate volatility on non-oil exports of Iran must be perused. The main point in this paper is that whether exchange rate uncertainly has a significant effect on non-oil export in Iran or not. For answer to this question، exchange rate uncertainty estimated by generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity model (GARCH). Then for estimating the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and exports for the period 1980-2010، was used econometrics vector error correction model (VECM) and vector regression (VAR). The results shows that exchange rate uncertainty in short-term coefficient 1. 06 and in the long term coefficient 7. 29، has a significant negative effect on non-oil exports. So the expansion of exchange rate uncertainty create the unsuitable conditions for export، leads to; exporters exit export departments and also decreases the non-oil exports.

Iran is located in arid and semi-arid region due to constantly faced with water shortage. Also، the indiscriminate withdrawal of groundwater in recent years، leading to a decrease in the water level and its stability is jeopardized. VaraminPlain faced with instability in groundwater balance. In this paper، By Using deterministic dynamic programming، assessment of water pricing policy on improving plain aquifer water balance and optimal cropping pattern has been studied in both modern and traditional modes. Statistics has been gathered from IWRM and simple classification method questionnaire. The study period was 10 years and the discount rate is 20 percent. The results showed that an increase in price leads to a decrease in the extraction of groundwater and improve groundwater balance. Modern farmers because they are less sensitive to price increases، their net income will be less change. Now، according to the most of irrigated agriculture in the region istraditional، It is recommended that water pricing associated with complementary policies، such as subsidies to improve the efficiency of irrigation systems.

Rapid growth، feed efficiency and resistance increase against the diseases is considered the most important goals of the aquaculture industry and the use of probiotics in the diet of various animals is increasing. The study aimed to investigate the effect of probiotic Bactocell on the growth of income resulted on farming rainbow trout and to determine the optimal diet was conducted. In the study، 8،000 pieces of rainbow trout divided into two groups; the control group (no treatment) and the experimental group treated with probiotic Bactocel Pediococcus acidilactituma that 2000 pieces were set in the four pools and the experimental group treated with Bactocell on a 3 meals daily with food formula based on extruded food by bactocell and then in months 7، 8، 9، 10 and 11 after treatment، biometric testing was performed and the results by using independent T-test were analyzed. The data obtained from the study showed that Bactocel caused to weight gain and increase fish growth rates، especially compared to the control group. According to the results of the study، Bactocell probably by increasing the growth rate and the weight of rainbow trout caused to reduce the costs and to increase income.

The objective of this study is to analysis impact of increase in production costs on export and market power of Iran in pistachio world market. To get the objective a system of equations including domestic supply and demand، import demand and export price as well as data set of 1980-2009 was applied. The results showed an elastic domestic supply and import demand with respect to price while domestic demand was found inelastic. It was also found that 1. 39 percent increase in interest rate as representative of production costs induces a reduction of 0. 56 and 0. 3 percent in export and the Iranian market power، respectively. The findings of welfare analysis also indicated that producers، consumers as well as exporters as a whole will suffer from annual loss of 158 billion Rilas as production costs increases by 1. 39 percent، of which the most accounts for producers.