نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی
سال بیست و چهارم شماره 3 (پیاپی 51، پاییز 1392)

Moisture flux convergence (MFC) is some moisture in atmosphere that moves from side to another side. It combines from advection humidity and moisture convergence terms. The function is calculated on the basis special humidity and wind vectors and it is used to forecast the thunderstorms and heavy precipitations. It is a term in the conservation of water vapor equation and was first calculated in the 1950s and 1960s as a vertically integrated quantity to predict rainfall associated with synoptic-scale systems. MFC was eventually suggested for use in forecasting convective initiation in the midlatitudes in 1970، but practical MFC usage quickly evolved to include only surface data، owing to the higher spatial and temporal resolution of surface observations. Since then، surface MFC has been widely applied as a short-term (0–3 h) prognostic quantity for forecasting convective initiation، with an emphasis on determining the favorable spatial locations for such development. This research investigates moisture flux convergence in convective، non-convective، super-heavy and heavy precipitation events in the southern coasts of Caspian Sea. It study role of each humidity resources to occur precipitation in different regions in the north of Iran. On the basis of daily precipitations in seven stations during 1961 to 2008، with regard to 25 and 50 percent probability، precipitation events are divided into heavy and super heavy precipitations. The events are also grouped into convective and non-convective precipitations based on the clouds synoptic codes. The moisture sources are distinguished using moisture flux convergence and humidity advection in different level pressures from 1000 to 500 hpa over the past 2 days. Moisture sources are distinguished for precipitations in the north of Iran. Discussion Figure: shows that there is the most frequency of moisture flux convergence in the west area in compare with the east and mountainous regions. There are the maximum functions at 06:00 GMT for different precipitation regions. Figure 2 indicates that the functions are in the convective group more than non-convective group and super-heavy than heavy precipitation events. There are the maximum functions at 06:00 GMT for different precipitation groups. Fig. 1. Moisture flux convergence mean in different precipitation regions in 1000hpa level (gr/kgs) 18 12 06 00 Observational times Precipitation regions 10 12 16 12 west region، super heavy group 5 8 12 9 West region، heavy group 8 10 14 11 Mountainous region، super heavy group 4 8 12 6 Mountainous region، heavy group 6 8 8 6 East region، super heavy group 4 8 8 6 East region، heavy group Fig. 2. Moisture flux convergence mean in different precipitation groups in 1000hpa level (gr/kgs) 18 12 06 00 Observational times Precipitation groups 6 15 18 12 Convective and super heavy precipitation 6 9 12 8 Nonconvective and super heavy precipitation 4 8 12 7 Convective and heavy precipitation 2 6 11 5 Nonconvective superheavy precipitation The difference between heavy and super-heavy precipitation in terms of moisture flux convergence is more in convective than non-convective events. The frequency of moisture sources are more in super-heavy precipitation than heavy precipitation. However، the Caspian Sea is the first supplier moisture sources for the precipitation in the north of Iran، the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea are the second supplier sources respectively in super-heavy and heavy precipitation.

Understanding the current climate change conditions and planning for the future requires the knowledge of paleoclimatic conditions which has been studied less in Iran. Although there are diverse methods to detect these changes، to select the proper one، the range of time period، environmental conditions and data access should be taken into account. Due to the time frame and conditions of these studies and the facilities available to choose the best way to inevitable. According to the available facilities and conditions in the study area، this study is based on the frequency macrofossils (Ostracoda) to determine the appropriate indicator of past climates is taken.

9 core purpose of the depth of 1 to 3 meters from the lake plain Gulf Arjan was removed. The sediments in the sections to separate and count 5CM Ostracoda it was divided. To determine the exact age of sediments، dating was conducted using C14. Calculating the sediment load and sediment song in a different lake depths، the counting and the prevalence of different depths of Lake Ostracoda spent. Finally، 15 climate zones during the course of 11 thousand years Arjan Gulf Plains region were identified and introduced. Became clear during this volatility in the number Ostracoda there at different times that show the natural fluctuations in climate، this region.

11 thousand years ago، climate region later than times more saline and warmer was. But in later periods longer period of up to about 2000 years ago، despite the climate of this region to cold damping is gone. Then to the present Covenant to climate warmth and dryness is gone.

Some of these zones، which included a long period، would have been to suggest climate change is too slow and some climate in the far shorter period of a few hundred years has experienced drastic changes. But the overall climate in the area of 11 thousand years ago since the Holocene period to warmth and dryness is gone.

Due to the various flood risk and risks arising from the event that human society and its structures are threatened، The process of rainfall - runoff and hydrograph flow from rivers and basins is of special importance. On the other hand، simulated rainfall - runoff is one of the basic needs of flood warning systems. Because، experimental models such as natural or synthetic unit hydrograph are unable to simulation the nonlinear flood. Therefore، the use of models like artificial neural network for nonlinear behavior of the basin finds.

In this research، seven stations in the daily rainfall data synoptic - hydrometer has been used in Faridan watershed. The input parameters to the three-part was divided: training، holdout and test. 70% data for training، 20 percent for holdout and 10 percent of the remaining data for test was used inthe artificial neural network. For the calculation and construction of artificial neural networks used MATLAB software is in branch of neural network.

To achieve the optimal structure of neural networks، six scenarios were designed and was evaluated number 2 to 40 neurons in the hidden layer. Ultimately determined that Scenario 6 with 32 neurons in the hidden layer، has the highest correlation and lowest RMSE error، that shown high correlation and significance between observed and predicted value simulated rainfall - runoff in the Faridan watershed.

Results showed that a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network with error back propagation algorithm and 32 neurons in the hidden layer can the process of rainfall - runoff simulation in Faridan watershed and reducing or increasing the neurons in this layer، the simulation will be reduced. - Based on analyzes conducted to compare the mean square error of the model was determined the Neurons in the hidden layer structure (1-32-10) in various stages of training، test and holdout is respectively: 0/23، 0/19 and 0/21. - Correlation coefficient in the best scenario in the training holdout and test is respectively: 98%، 97% and 96%، that show high correlation between observed and predicted values.

Iran’s precipitation mainly affects by air masses that arrive to it from adjacent area directly or affects as teleconnection pattern due to remoteness from water sources. Due to irregular arrival of the air masses to Iran and far distance to teleconnection centers، occurrence of precipitation variations is one of the prominent characteristics of Iran’s climate. Also due to short period of instrumental data in the meteorological stations، there is no possibility for understanding of the climatic variations during the last centuries. Reconstruction of climatic variations based on current evidences، shows a more realistic understanding of the climatic variations of the region. Trees are the useful climatic evidences that experience different climatic situation of temperature and precipitation during their life period and the effects of these climatic variations is reflected in their tissues. In temperate climates، trees add a ring annually to their previous rings. Therefore، by studying of the tree-ring widths، useful climatic information can be obtained over the last centuries of the region. In the previous studies، relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Iran’s precipitation only has been studied in a relatively short period due to the lack of instrumental data. In this study، we present a longer period of relationship between monthly precipitations of the region with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) by reconstruction of precipitation based on Oak tree rings in the central Zagros region over the last centuries (1705-2010). In the present paper، three sites of Oak species with a short distance to the meteorological stations were selected in Lorestan (Shineh)، Kermanshah (Faryadras) and Ilam (Dalab) provinces. In Shineh and Faryadras sites Quercus infectoria species and in Dalab site Quercus Persica species used for sampling. Two increment cores at different sides of each tree were extracted by a Suunto increment borer at breast high. In each site 10 to 14 trees were sampled. After air drying، the surface of cores was prepared by a razor blade. The ring widths were measured with a LINTAB5 measuring system with a resolution of 0. 01 mm، and all cores were cross-dated by visual and statistical tests (sign-test and t-test) using the software package TSAP-Win. Raw ring widths were standardized by ARSTAN program to remove non climatic signals. Three site chronologies were obtained from the three sites. To increase the length of the chronology and due to the same trends and high correlations between the three site chronologies، all growth curves were combined and the regional chronology was calculated. The values of mean sensitivity (MS)، signal to noise ratio (SNR) and first auto correlation (AC1) were calculated for the regional chronology. Mean monthly precipitation of Khorramabad (1951-2010)، Kermanshah (1951-2010) and Ilam (1987-2010) meteorological stations were used to calibrate the tree-ring/climate relationship. Due to the high correlation (p<0. 01) between the regional chronology and mean monthly precipitation of the region، October-May، precipitation of the region was reconstructed using a linear regression model. For investigation of relationship between the reconstructed wet years and the El Nino events، Historical El Nino events from 18th century to present were obtained from NOAA database. The longest value of SOI (1876-2010) was obtained from Bureau meteorological station. Finally the relationship between October-May monthly values of SOI and the reconstructed October-May precipitation of central Zagros was investigated in the common period (1877-2010). Similar growth patterns of trees in the three sites indicate that they influence by the same growth factors. Relationship and correlations between monthly precipitation and the regional chronology showed that precipitation has positive effect on tree growths in the region. The positive correlation with precipitation during the pre-growing season show the fact that precipitation during these months provides moisture availability in semi-arid regions and favors formation of early wood cells، which account for the majority of the total ring-width (Liu et al.، 2011). Compression between the reconstructed precipitation and the actual precipitation of the central Zagros region shows some years with inconsistency between observed and reconstructed data. Most of the reconstructed wet years have been occurred coincidence with El Nino events. There is a negative relationship between the reconstructed October-May precipitation of central Zagros and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). It should be noted that negative values of SOI indicate El Niño events and during the El Niño phases precipitation in most parts of Iran is above average. According to this، Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) during October to May has positive effect on precipitation in central Zagros. The highest correlation (p<0. 01) between SOI and the reconstructed precipitation was found on November and December which is supported by the results of Azizi (2000)، Yarahmadi and Azizi (2007) and Khoshakhlagh (1998). Also there is a significant correlation (p<0. 05) between SOI and the reconstructed precipitation in April and May. It may be due to the far distance between the study region and the El Nino origin. Therefore the study region during April-May influence by El Nino with a lag time. The length of the regional chronology is 305 years (1705-2010). Total and monthly precipitations from October to May have positive effect on tree growths in the region. The results showed that dry conditions occurred in 1730s، 1760s-1790s، 1810s، 1840s-1850s، 1870s-1880s، 1900s، 1920s، 1940s، 1960s and 1980s. Comparison of wet years and historical El Nino events showed that 77 of reconstructed wet years have occurred with El Nino events simultaneously. Investigation of relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the reconstructed October-May precipitation of the central Zagros region showed that SOI has positive effect on precipitation in the region. The highest negative correlation between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the reconstructed precipitation was found in December. The highest correlation (p<0. 01) between SOI and the reconstructed precipitation of the region was found in November، December and January. There was a significant correlation (p<0. 05) between SOI and the reconstructed precipitation in April and May as well.

Industrial development and population increase in the cities have resulted in beneficiary construction. In such construction activities health issues and providing minimum light in condensed urban areas is ignored. On the other hand necessity for providing urban applications for meeting the ever growing needs and inhabiting population results gradually in reduction of green areas and cities gardens، in consequently results in contamination of the environment city parks as one of the most important city applications have a prominent role in the reduction of air population; also they are important in enhancing life quality of city residents. The number of parks and their location and distribution is important as they must be accessible for all citizens. This is one of the most discussed issues in city planning.

For identifying suitable locations for parks in legal zone of ABADEH city، first important influential variables on finding locations for city parks were suited. For doing so، 12 layer of information including population، location of current parks، location relative to inhabited zones، location of centers which attract population such as commercial centers were extracted by DWG format from current application plan of lands in the city. Because these information layers do not have equal influence on determining suitable locations and also their sub-layers don’t have equal importance، thus in the present study for each layer and its sub-layers regarding its type and its application analytical hierarchy process were applied.

By combining variables and sub-variables in GIS environment، lands in the city were categorized based on their appropriateness for constructing park. They were classified in five groups as very high، high، middle، low and very low. In 745 hectare of the studied area 36. 73 hectares of the lands had very high appropriateness and 208. 75 had very low appropriateness. Parks in ABADEH were dividing into three groups as neighborhoods، local and regional. Their functions were also calculated. Kodak garden is a neighborhood park، MELI BAGH is a local park and SAR ASIAB and City Park are regional parks. According to the available rules، extent of function of each kind of park according to the distance which is walked by a person is calculated as following: Neighborhood Park 500 meters، Local Park 750 meter and Regional Park 1000 meter. Network analysis in arc GIS software was applied in order to obtain extent and function and their functional zones were drawled by calculating the distance which a person had walked.

Analysis results related the current conditions of parks of ABADEH shows that space distribution of parks is in a way that they are not easily accessible for citizens. The major part of this city lake city park. In the present study first lands of the city was assessed in order to identify good location for parks. From 746 hectares of land in legal region of the city which was studied، 209 hectares were very unsuitable، 270 hectares were unsuitable and finally 37 hectares were very suitable. This new classification was used for locating zones for new parks and for identification of the extent of function of these parks. Network analysis in GIS was used for locating new zones. Totally 16 city park in neighborhood، local and regional scale were suggested. Space distribution of current parks in according to maximal efficient accessibility of them for citizens.

Today، tourism activity as a non-smoke industry has been considered as a reason from one side and as a consequence of globalization from another side. (Mow forth and Munt، 2003، P9). Thus tourism planning is considered as one of the significant aspects in regional and national management of each country. Regardless of the necessities، the importance of Tourism is to the extent that human is invited to this issue in Holy Quran. It is completely evident that concerning these issue natural pleasure areas has an important place for human to spend their leisure time and pleasure areas are planned based on capacities and existing natural resources of each area or at least is an important factor to identify a place as pleasure area. It is evident that in such circumstances it is important to maintain dynamics، quality and quantity of these natural resources in order to continuous productivity and providing a reasonable tourism experience to the passengers. (Kessler 1994). Therefore considering that the natural resources are very vulnerable and sensitive which are God''s gifts and product of the nature and since they have beauties and aesthetic and educational values، they are liked by people to spend their leisure time there and evaluation and examination of pleasure areas carrying capacity gets importance. Identifying carrying capacity for all pleasure areas (whether natural or man-made) not only results in maintaining their potential values specially in natural areas but also it provides an ideal quality of bioenvironmental، visional، psychological and social characteristics، which are necessary issues to acquire an acceptable experience for tourists (Nahrli & Rezaei 1990). In this article tourism carrying capacity of Zanjanrood Riverine will be examined based on expectation and establishment of various tourism activities and their comparative potentialities. The objective of this article is quantitative estimation of the number of tourists in Zanjanrood area by maintaining ideal tourism experience and not damaging tourist attractions and resources of human and natural environments. Moreover it should not be considered as a threat for the host society based on specific sustainable development rules and regulations. Research methods are mainly regulated based on the nature of the topic and objectives of each research. According to research objective، a combination of discovering method، explanation and analysis to achieve the required information is selected and in the process of a library examination and internet search، research and practical articles as well as case studies outcomes or the summary of reports published in national and international scientific-research magazines relating to carrying capacity were extracted and studied and by comparing theoretical basis and applied methods in them it is tried to introduce concepts and framework of methodology of carrying capacity. It is also tried to study physical carrying capacity (PCC) and real carrying capacity (RCC) in Zanjanrood area. A) Physical Carrying Capacity (PCC) The area of appropriate tourism limit (A) is equal to 37 Hectares which would change to square meter. The amount of required space for each tourist for extended entertainment according to standards is 30 meter and its RF is: RF= 6/6 1×0/03×37000=11100 B) Real Carrying Capacity (RCC) B-1) Bio-Environmental One of the most significant bio environmental elements is; slope، lands coverage and ground waters that each of them makes some difficulties for the tourists. These elements either don’t have the capability of having tourists or in some cases the presence of the tourist results in the damage of environment. Lands coverage (water or rain planting) Although the tourist area of the river outskirt of Zanjanroud is considered as the point of tourist activities of the region، we should not forget that the type of land coverage is not appropriate for developing touristy activities and presence of the tourists. The main function of this area is agriculture but in accordance with its different spaces it could have tourist function as well which is done in the form of Agro Tourism. From 200 hectares space، about 1629797 square meters which is 81/4%of the total area includes planting، agricultural and gardening lands. Slope Being appropriate with the type of the function of the lands equal to 37 hectares for the total space is convenient for the presence of the tourists. In the slope layers 0-50% there is a capability for tourist activities that the slope of 0-80% is appropriate for focused pleasure، 0-25% for developed pleasure of the 1st type and 25-50% appropriate for developed pleasure of the 2nd type. So the slopes with over 50% don’t have the capability for tourist activities. In this are there is no slope over 50%. Ground waters One of the limitations which should be considered in real carrying capacity (RCC) is the ground waters. The extent of ground waters of Zanjanroud is 15 meters from each side in accordance with existing rules and regulations. The deducted area for the purpose of ground waters of the site is 07931 square meters which includes 5/3% of the total space. RCC=PCC-Cƒ1-Cƒ2-Cƒ3-… CF1=5. 3%+81. 4%=86. 7% RCC=100%-86. 7%=13. 3% Therefore the bio environmental capacity of the area approximately is 1476 people. Of course the real capacity could be estimated after designing and establishment of the desired functions in the special area along with calculation of the total area of each of service، cultural and installation functions. In this article considering the available information we only would examine the bio-environmental aspect of the real carrying capacity. 11100×13. 3%=1476 In planning for developing the quantity resulting from the estimation of carrying capacity، as a special characteristic for the area under development، gives the possibility to the evaluators and decision makers that by knowing the permitted amount or the total resources of the desired land to regulate their plans in a way that in long term they make sure that the area would keep its natural capacity and productivity and its ecosystem processes. Hence by estimation of carrying capacity we could consider a trustable quantitative basis for decision making in the field of bearable thresholds for accepting the over weight resulted from productivity to be provided to the planners. During the recent years the places like Zanjanroud which we have many similar place like it، have been welcomed by many tourists. But their view towards this area was enjoying the visional beauties rather than tourist point of vies so we experience a wrong management system on these areas. The present research in addition to providing the theoretical principals endeavors to identify both physical and real tourist carrying capacities of Zanjanrood outskirt. Thus، by considering the above mentioned issues and applying these capacities to provide a solution to enhance the tourist capability of this area. In estimation of the carrying capacity، elements like training the tourists، average of duration of stay، tourists characteristics and host society، geographical concentration of tourism، season، type of tourism activities، access to specific sites، access to infrastructures، and possible additional capacities are of the elements which influence the capacity og the area. The tourists who have environmental information are responsible about the environment and would like to have a positive effect on the visiting environment.

All around the world disasters and hazards occurs that always endanger human life and property. Among these disasters، storm is one of the most dangerous that allocate about 30 percent share of 90 percent natural disasters related to climatic factors and yearly enter irreparable damage in life and property. In some area of Iran occur incidence of storms by speed more than 100 kilometers in one hour occurred times. Kermanshah province has located in the western end of Iran''s country، is one of the areas that effected by these storms. To study statistically and predicting incident probability of stormy and strong winds of Kermanshah province is used way of analyzing and partial series used anemometer data in 5 stations synoptic in Islamabad، Ravansar، Kermanshah، Sarpolzehab and Kangavar throughout statistical period 20 years (1990-2009). In this method by proposing this argument that occur strong winds or storms in few years which their speed is more than maximum speed and must consider for preventing damages and safety. After regulating matrix table of data، by using SPSS software data are arranged. To select days along with stormy and strong wind، winds with equal speed and more than 17m/s (strong wind base in scale of Biofort) and accepted by weather meteorology organization (WMO) is accounted as days by stormy and strong wind. Correctness and homogeneous of data is accepted by using of followings test. At first winds by speed higher than base speed is selected and without attention to the year occurrence are ranked and accounted incident probability by Vibol relation. Then in studying strong storms by certain return period and by using certain statistical years (2009-1990) base speed is selected that occurs annual at average between 3 to 5 stronger winds. At the other stage all strong winds and storms that is more than base amount is extracted. By considering all strong winds by speed more than base speed، average occurrence at year is accounted and finally storm speed by certain return period and average speed of predicted storms is obtained. Discussion and Considering that obtained findings، occurrence of strong winds and storm with speed (17m/s) and more at Islamabad، Ravansar، Kermanshah، Sarpolzahab and Kangavar station is phenomenon relative common and is natural properties of region. Throughout statistical period (1990-2009)، Islamabad station 72 days، Kermanshah station 76 days، Kangaver station 90 days، Ravansar station 94 days Sarpolzahab station 98 days. With wind (17 mls and higher) has been observed. According to studying and movneter data، maximum recorded wind speed among studied 5 stations، has been 34 m/s and belonged to Sarpolzahab station. By comparison of station، probability of occurrence at dangerous storms at Sarpol Zahab station has been more than other station and less at Islamabad station. predicting probability of occurrence of storms by speed more than base that performed by analyzing and decomposition method of partial series in return periods، has been showed that by probability near to 100 percent in return period of 1 year stormy and stormy and strong winds by speed 18/84 m/s at Islamabad station، 19 m/s at Kermanshah station، 20/53 m/s at Ravansar station، 20/68 m/s at Kangaver station and 23/56 m/s at Sarpolzahab have been occurred. Also predicted that in one return period 100 years، by probability 1 percent storm by speed 41/09 m/s at Sarpolzahab station، 30/39 m/s at Kangaver station، 29/54 m/s at Islamabad station has been occurred. Among recorded data throughout statistical period، Sarpolzahab by 98 days، along with stormy and strong wind and Islamabad station by 72 days، have been the least days by stormy and strong wind. Maximum observed storm speed 34 m/s belonged to Sarpolzahab station minimum observed storm speed 19/57 s belonged to Islamabad station. Drawing annul wind rose by WRPLOT software is showed that direction of stormy and strong wind of region has been different at studied station. The results predict probability of incidence of stormy and stormy winds for studied stations in return period. Probability of occurrence predict maximum speed in one return period 100 years at Sarpolzahab station to 41/09 m/s. In addition probability of occurrence of strong winds by speed more than 18 m/s in return period one year at mentioned stations is near to 100%. Thus، in environmental planning and safety of structures must consider occurrence of this natural danger that decrease these damages.

Uncertainty is an unavoidable aspect of decisions in agricultural planning. Inclusion of uncertainty in the optimization of crop planning and soil and water resources management has been provided by means of fuzzy mathematical programming approaches. Optimization procedures have been receiving much attention in agricultural economic research over several decades. LP is a single objective optimization technique and most of the farm planning problems are multi-objective in nature. Crop area planning or agricultural planning arenas involve multiple، conflicting and non-commensurable criteria and a satisfying decision is desired. Issues of risk، resources conservation and sustainability، environmental quality and social aspects of farming systems are as important as economic efficiency. It is clearly impossible to develop a single objective that satisfies all interests، all adversities and all political and social viewpoints. These are called multiple-criteria decision problems (MCDM)، where the decision maker generally follows a satisfying solution rather than the maximization of objectives. Hence، decisions in the real world are often made on the basis of vague information or uncertain data and are fuzzy rather than precise. Purpose and scope This paper attempts to offer a solution to a crop planning problem using GP philosophy in an imprecise context of goals and constraints. Thus، the general objective of the paper is to introduce the technique of fuzzy goal programming (FGP) as a tool for area allocation models considering various socio-economic and environmental conflicting objectives involved in managing agricultural systems. Crop planning and allocation of production resources was performed in a comprehensive and imprecise manner to consider the whole environmental and socio-economic aspects of the farming system of the region. To this aim، the maximization of total area allocated to crops، net return and labor employment were fuzzily considered as problem objectives in order to maintain the population in the system and its durability. Monthly water availabilities were also considered fuzzily as the main problem constraints with regard to the recent drought periods and hence the crucial role of water in the region’s cropping pattern determination. Additionally، monthly labor force availability and requirements، seasonality (crop rotation)، capital requirement، a lower bound constraints on fodder crops'' cultivated area، and seasonal land availabilities are other fuzzy constraints of the problem. To simultaneously consider these multiple fuzzy objectives and fuzzy constraints (fuzzy goals)، the problem of the study has been modeled as a multi-objective fuzzy goal programming procedure. Therefore، the socio-economic aspects of the farming system were considered in terms of maximizing the net return and labor employment opportunities fuzzily to include uncertainty. The study area consists of two rural districts located in the northern and southern parts of the Zayandeh-Roud river، the most important central river of Iran، with fertile alluvial lands، namely northrn Baraan and southern Baraan. Total arable lands of area are close to 27000 ha، of which about 26000 ha are currently allocated to 9 major crops cultivated in two cropping seasons under irrigation. The data to formulate the study problem were collected by completing the standard cropping cost-benefit questionnaire، by interviewing the farmers and also experts of the Regional Center of Agricultural Services، and provided finally per unit of area. Monthly preparation of the irrigation water requirements (IWR) data was carried out by considering two major national available data bases in this field. Additional processing operations were then applied to calibrate them for the region، based on the climatological circumstances and crop calendar. Adding together these monthly requirements، the seasonal IWR coefficients were provided to calculate the total water consumption. The monthly water resources availabilities from both groundwater and surface sources were also computed using the records of the regional water organization of the Isfahan and additional detailed geostatistical processing operations in GIS environment. Quantitative analysis of the results showed the precedence of FGP، based on the simultaneous achievement to the objectives over the others. Expenditure and water consumption of the FGP pattern are also less than the existing pattern، despite the nearly equal cultivated area of them، which indicates non-optimality of existing resources utilization in study area. The crop-mix in the FGP pattern has been changed so that the crops barley، rice، corn and onion have been excluded، area of alfalfa decreased and wheat and potato have also been increased in area. Under the framework of the proposed model، all the objective functions and different environmental and socio-economic constraints can imprecisely be incorporated and a proper cropping plan can be made without involving any computational difficulty. Applying the multi-objective programming framework، the objectives of area، net return and employment maximization and the constraints of land، water، labor force and capital availability، rotation and a lower bound production are all fuzzily considered to determine an optimal cropping plan in a farming system. The comparison of the goal achievements and productive resources consumption in existing situations with the obtained goals of fuzzy multi-objective programming plan indicated the inoptimality of the current resources allocation and cropping pattern around the region. Changing the study rural region''s existing pattern of cropping corresponding to the identified FGP results can help achieve considerable conservation of environmental and financial water and capital resources. Additionally، the income generation of the farming system is also increased as a result while the total area under cultivation remains unchanged. The only negligible drawback is that the employment rate is somewhat decreased. An extension of the investigated and applied fuzzy goal programming approach in agricultural systems planning for optimizing the ratio goal functions relating the outputs to the inputs may be one of the current research problems، which can be dealt with in the fields of fractional programming procedures.

Precipitation is a principal element of the hydrological cycle، so that understanding its behavior may be of profound social and economic significance. The detection of oscillations in precipitation time series yields important information for the understanding of climate. These oscillations can be seen as a response of the climate system either to external forcing or feedback processes. In addition، precipitation is a very variable climatic element. It is highly variable، both spatially and temporally at different scales (interannual and intra-annual). The search for cyclist in the climatic record can resolve some of the complexities of the atmospheric system. Many authors analyzed the precipitation patterns in several parts of Iran (e. g. Omidvar K.، 2007، Babayi fini A. and Farajzadeh M.، 2002، Kavousi A.، Meshkani M. R.، 2007 Masoudian A.، 2005، Masoudian A.، 2009). Iran is located in world’s dry belt، so studying the precipitation characteristics and its periodicity of different harmonics in order to forecasting its behavior has significant role on water resources management of the country The main objective of this study is spatial and temporal analysis of inter-annual variability of frequency of monthly precipitation over Iran using harmonic analysis. One of the most important features in analyzing the climatology of any region is to study the precipitation as the most variable climatic element. In addition، the abnormal variability and uneven spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation are often the direct reasons for the extreme flood and draught events. Harmonic analysis represents the variations of a time series in the form of sine functions. The purpose of the applying of harmonic analysis to the frequency precipitation amounts، for each month، is to determine the characteristic parameters of the variances of these frequencies as well as the determining the occurrence date of maximum values of precipitation (Tk) over Iran. To do so، long monthly precipitation time series data from 33 well-scattered synoptic stations are studied with basic harmonic analysis in 25 years statistical period (1980-2005). Herein، the amplitude of frequencies، phase angle and basic statistical parameters are calculated in order to depict spatial characteristics of precipitation، revealing the various climatologically patterns of Iran in the form of contour maps. First، relative frequency of precipitation for each month was calculated and characteristics of monthly precipitation over the whole country were analyzed in form of six harmonics. It is important to note that، the first harmonic represents a single annual cycle with the largest amplitude in comparison to the other harmonics. The second harmonic represents a probable semi-annual variation، while the third harmonic describes the seasonal 4-month variations، in more detail، and is also an indicator of the inter-annual patterns of the examined frequencies. Finally، the Tk values indicate the displacement of the maximum frequency along the time axis. The harmonic analysis showed that the first three harmonics are the most important ones for explanation of inter-annual variability of precipitation over the country. As mentioned before، the first harmonic represents a single annual cycle with the largest amplitude in comparison to the other harmonics، so that this harmonic revealed more than 70 percent of monthly precipitation variability in most of regions except Northwest and Southeast of the country. The highest values of first harmonic PVR are related to Khoramabad (92. 52%)، Babolsar (92. 08%) and Mashhad (90. 20%) stations، respectively. Also، the results showed that the highest values of second harmonic variances are related to Ardebil (53. 74%)، Tabriz (48. 66%) and Orumieh (33. 97%) stations، while the effect of third harmonic in western، central and southeast of the country، such as Iranshahr (8. 92%) and Tehran (6. 92%) stations is considerable. In addition، in Kermanshah، Hamedan، Sanandaj، Esfahan and Bojnord stations the third harmonic has significant role. It is concluded that the occurrence date of maximum values of precipitation (Tk) for the first harmonic varies from mid-December to March over whole country except in the southern coasts of Caspian Sea. Tk for second harmonic varies from the October to March، while for the third harmonic it varies from October to February. The amplitude of the first harmonic which shows the spatial distribution of the size of particular types of seasonal variations is more important in western، eastern and central parts of the country. This paper has focused on the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation over Iran using harmonic analysis. It is observed that only the first and the second harmonics are sufficient to explain more than 90% of the climatologically variations in Iran. It is important to note that the fourth، fifth and sixth harmonics did not represent significant impact on precipitation variability over whole country. Also، it is concluded that the occurrence date of maximum values of precipitation (Tk) for the first harmonic varies from mid-December to March over whole country except in the southern coasts of Caspian Sea.

The 7p marketing mix model is one of themain concerns oftourismplanningand marketing. This study، through combining the seven components (Place، Price، Product، Promotion، People، Process، Physical Evidence and also Political & social situation) in the form of comprehensive marketing mix (7P) model، tries to a) investigate existingsituation of components of marketing mixgeographyof ruraltourismintwo cities: Amoland Babol and b) prioritize these components for developing the geography ofruraltourism in the studied region.

This study is a descriptive-analytic one which was conducted through survey. The population of the study is all employees of Cultural Heritage and Tourism Organizationin Amol and Babol who are involved in the tourism affairs and 38 individuals were selected. Data were collected through referring to the above-mentioned organizations and random sampling method was applied. Data obtained were analyzed applying SPSS software.

In this study، based on the opinion of organizations'' experts، the two components of promotion and people were found to have the most effect on the development of rural tourism in Babol and Amol. In this ranking، planning and the place of tourism attraction were in the fourth and fifth places. The noticeable factor in this ranking was the price component which got the last rank both in the mean test and the ranking obtained from theinfluenceontourism development. Thisshows that the price variable had no significant effect onselectingrural areasofAmoland Babolcityas a tourist destinationand cannot be considered as a hindering factor for their travel to these cities.

The results of this study show that the two components of promotion، people and staff have the most significant effect in the development of rural tourism in the two studied areas. Finally، it was found that the mixture composed of the 7 mentioned components can well define the current status of rural tourism in the studied area at the significance level of 0. 005 and they can promote the rural development through rural tourism development. In fact، it should be mentioned that appropriate application of marketing mix components of rural tourism will result in visualization and proper positioning for the development of this industry. Creating proper position in the market of this industry can be a beneficial and efficient factor in developing rural tourism and increasing the number of tourists of these regions.

The suspended load of a comprises mineral and organic matter is dispersed through the flow by turbulence. typically، the mineral load is dominant & Consists of grains ranging is siz from clay up sand grade. The suspeded load is quantified in terms of its concentration، discharge،sediment mass flux Per unit time- also referred to as the “load” -،& Particle-size distribution (pro-portions of the load in given size fractions). Theclay -silt fractions (ofen termed”wash load”) are largely sourced from erosion Processes outside the river channel،being moreeasily suspended، they are well mixed through the flow& travel long distances in suspention. Darehrud basin، as one of subbasin of arax، discharges a high bulk of sedimentsto Caspian sea iran’s northwest mountains that located in Ardabil & eastern Azarbaija provinces. this basin carry materials resulting from denudation in various forms toward base – level which apart of these sediments includes soft & fine texture deposites in form of suspended sediment. On the other hand the existence of three reservoir dams (Yamchi، Saghezchi and sabalan) in this basin makes it necessary to study and recognize the potential of sediment creation and erosion of this with approach of increasing the useful life of mentioned dams. In this research data and information related to discharge and sediment of 31 hydrometry stations that are located in baisn have been analysed. this way that at first darehrud river’ s basin morphometry goes to the place of stations has been calculated and then the correlation equations of sediment and discharge are owned by using existing data and finally the amount of annual sediment for each river has been calculated and has been completed by using FAO method foraperiod of thirty years. The limitation existence consists; lacking hydrometery and sampling from sediment mineral density in throughout basin and necceray sediment estimation in basin lacking statistic. Accordingly،estimate of correlation sediment and and discharge in Dareh Rud basin and subbasin and also estimate of sediments suspended load for the basins lacking statistic according regional eqations base on the result of research and the development of the eqation is one the main objectives of the present study. The amount of estimated sediment of suspended burden for the basin was 8. 7 million ton per year. and amount of discharge specificl of sediment was 624 ton per year in each square kilometer. At least the regional equations of sediment estimate for Darehruod river basin and sub-basins of Qarahsuo and Ahar chay has been presented on the basis of basin area; channel length، and special of sediment. Also according to calculations performed on the suspended load passing at hydrometery stations over a 30-year period (which shows significant correlating with river discharge) and the calculation the average suspended load in the mentioned points، their is asignificant correlation between morphometery subbasins Dareh Rud and river and sediment rate. Finally، the final equation of suspended sediments estimate has been presented on the basis of basin’s morphometry charactristic for basins with less and more than 500 square km area.

The unique Characteristics of thiscityIn terms ofsocial، cultural، economic andnatural has a lot offacilities andcapabilities in order to reasonable Planning forcity managers. But in thecityhas notpaid much attention to these features. Thisneglectis caused several problems، including instability inurban management، lowexpertise of urban management، not understanding thereal needs of citizensby civil administrators and etc (Komasi، 2012:3). Oneof the most important issues is the lack of attentionto the state''s urban transport and consequentlyinattention towardthe required spacetopark of carson the street thatisimpairedresidents transport. Due to increasing population and con sequently increase in the numberof privatecarsinthecity،it isintended that prioritizedthe optimalconstruction ofpublic parking places in the main streets of Songhor city.

The Purpose of this study is the ranking and strategic Analysisof optimalconstruction ofpublic parkingplacesinSonghor city. This research in terms of Purpose is applied Research andin terms ofresearch methodsis descriptive- analytical study that in order tocollect the requireddata and information used the review of documentary and the Survey method. Applicable Modelsfordata analysis were TOPSISandSWOT. At first،the50 aware expertswere selectedon the study area and Were askedto each ofthecriteriain thefourstreets،based oninformation available are scoresof1 to7. ThenIn thenext step، prioritization of thefourmainstreetsin Songhor cityhas been investigated usingTOPSISmodelfor construction ofparking lots. And thenof the expertswere asked toprovidethe majorinternal and external factorsaffectingon the construction of parking.

The rise in urbanizationand consequentlyincreasing use ofautomobiles is particularly caused lack of carparkingspaceinthecrowdedcities. This issuein thelocalitiesandneighborhood unites، has createdmany difficultiesintraffic of locality becauseof thenarrowroadsand parkedvehiclesalong thestreets andishamperedthe orderof thelocality. This issue revealsthe necessary ofthe optimize location ofpublic parkingmore than before. Important thingin thelocalizationstudies is differinlocationof public serviceandprivate firmsin thetheoretical and the modeling of them. While in theprivateservices،firmsis seeking tosettlein placesthatmaximizetheir profits. About the publicfirms،location is considered in placesto maximizesocial welfare. Inthis fieldcoveringthemaximum number of peoplebyservice centersis very important.

The resultsindicate thatamong thefourmajor streets of Songhor، AyatollahTaleghaniAve. by the acquisitive factor (0. 61)، AyatollahKhamenei Ave. by (0. 41)، Imam KhomeiniAve by (0. 40) and Shahid Beheshti Ave. by (0. 33) havethe highestpriorityin theconstruction ofstreetparkingandat the end ofthe research، many strategiesis presentedforconstruction ofpublic parkingin Songhor city. The most importantstrategiesare: First one iscompetitive/aggressive (SO) includes: Organizingopen spacefor the construction ofparkingencouragingthe private sectorfor the constructionandparking management، The second priority is biodiversitystrategies (ST) includes: Considering thebudgetfor the constructionparking، Attractingthe public participationthrough the use ofincentive policiesfor the constructionof parking، The thirdpriority is the overview Strategies (WO) includes: Prevent thecarsparkedalong the street، Prevent thecarsparkedalong the streetand consequentlyprovideuse ofparking، and construct the private andsemi-private parking in the city،and the forth priority isdefensivestrategies (WT) includes: Assistancefromotheragenciesfor the constructionof parking andto providepart ofthe parking space to the institution whichhas contributedto the constructionof the parking lots.

Agricultural activities in each kind، each branch and each region، has substantive in development and economy of that region. In this regard، horticulture and exploiting from it، in one hard has substantive role on job-making and climate and in other hard، has a role in removing the needs of food for people. Horticulture activity in developed agriculture field regard to its entotic and positive aspects، has some priority on farming in the case of having correct managing، and having good balance in ecology and because of its low damaging factors. In horticulture field Iran country because of having the most suitable climate conditions، is among the most procures of garden products and these conditions put our country among the most gardening countries around the world and the most important part draughness، extensive compete among the import and internal gardeners products، existing the pollutant industrial center around this region، lack of comprehensive program and lack of policy in keeping and developing the garden and decreasing the garden grounds because of extensive villa making، are the most important external treating factors. Of village inhabitants incomes of our country producer populations can be provided via gardening activities. In this field baghbahadoran section، because of having high environment potentials for gardening، is one of the most important gardening regions in Isfahan province. This region has located in a suitable please as the view point of geography position and is exploited from zayandrood water and good soil but because of different reasons like: lack of scientific-research work، lack of good management and planning، changing the village structure of region and draugthness، the gardening section has failed with some recession. Therefore functional planning in gardening field appropriate with the conditions of each region، along with removing the different problems for village’s societies can provide some conditions to develop these regions and then develop the country. Because of statistical lacking and the lack of exact numbers of gardeners’ in this studied region، the statically society of this research، has mentioned more than 45957 persons for this region population according to year 2006، which then among، 146 region gardener have questioned and studied as the chosen statistical samples regard to kokaran method with the separation of cities and villages of this region. To access the research purposes، at first by the method of descriptive- analytical، dumentary and by using from measurement method and field and studies between 146 gardeners’ of region as chosen statistical sample، and 30 exporter and related responsible persons related to gardening، have been questioned. In this stage، regard to acquired data، to analyze the data، presenting strategy and the function of develop and maintain of gardening activity، the swot analytical method was used. Then via idea making of gardeners’، the measuring of indices، via the method of» removing the scale«and their evaluation and analyses، the priorities were defined at last to decrease the weak points And threats and also to enrich the powerless point and existing chances related gardening activities in Baghbahadoran section، suitable strategies were presented. To present the functions and policies of gardening development in Baghbahadoran section، after knowing the strong point، weaknesses، chases and threats presented in economic، social and cultural ecological and organizational facts، the functions matrix regard to defined purpose، was extracted swot matrix، will present st3 functions، wt functions، wo functions and so functions. Extracting the possible functions can be done via a matrix which is formed via exchanging external and internal factors. At last، evaluation of functions، have been done via attention to environmental- ecological، social، cultural، economical، organizational and prioritization necessities and via quantifying and analyzing the data. The prioritization of factors is among the power points factors in maintain، develop the gardens، and gardening activity from the view point of two cooperator groups، existing income for selves، making suitable and beautiful scenery in region، existing kind of economical and job making activity in the region، existing and making native and exprineced gardeners، existing and making native knowledge، existing and making economical income for people in this region and existing and making the young and active factor in region. Therefore using the best possibilities is emphasizing. Among the weak point، the low literacy amount of grandness، having little availability to store houses، and lake of suitable packaging، lack of changing workshops and industries in the region، leaving the farming and gardening jobs، existing the differences on the lost and….، are the most important difficulties and obstacles for gardeners. According to this fact، the necessity of planning and making essential policies decrease or omitting these problems to enrich and increase the gardens efficiency and gardening activity is essential and necessary. Among the external chances، development of novel irrigation methods and suitable irrigation and paying more attention to make village small industries and product processing، are the most hopeful factor to maintain and develop the gardens and they are effective factor on region gardening. Among the external threats، the fluctuation in price market، having weakness in pricing the products، draugthness and low amount of raining، having intense compete among import of raining، having intense compete among import and internal garden product، existing of industrial canters around this region، lack of comprehensive program and lack of policy making on maintain and develop of gardens، decreasing the gardens lands because of extensive villa making are the most important threatening factors، so the different and defensives functions and essential functions in this point، have been presented.

The absorption of the overflow of population has been one of the main reasons for establishing new towns and satellite settlements on the periphery of metropolises. A few decades after beginnings of the establishment of these settlements، many residents of new towns look these places as temporary settlement، and if prerequisites of migration are prepared، they would migrate to metropolis as soon as possible. This paper is analytical and causal research that investigates the factors affecting population migration in satellite settlements of Isfahan city. For this purpose and at first step، people’s tendency to migration was examined in studied settlements; for positive cases، the main factors affecting this tendency were questioned; finally these factors were analyzed to determine their portion in this respect. The questionnaire survey was designed to collect needed data، and analysis of data was done by using the method of regression analysis applying SPSS software. Theoretical bases: As previously mentioned the first step of this study devoted to investigate the rate of households’ tendency to migration. Then، among households with positive tendency، related affecting factors were studied; based on this research these factors are as follows: shortcomings in health and curative services، shortage of leisure time spending spaces and shortage of security. The intrinsic importance of these factors is attributed as follow. World Health Organization recognized health as a state or quality of complete physical، emotional، social، economic، cultural and spiritual well-being (Marotz، 2008). Each of these dimensions points one of the main aspects of human health، yet they have close relationship and reciprocal effects. “Basically four important groups of determinants can be distinguished: life-style، the physical environment، the social environment and endogenous individual attributes، either genetic or acquired during life; The physical and social environments، as well as life-style are regarded as exogenous determinants” (de Hollander and Staatsen، 2003). “Urban ecosystem health is not defined as a standard quantitative measurement، but rather described as what healthy urban ecosystems should or should not contain. This statement reflects the vagueness of urban ecosystem health. Based on the acknowledged need to sustainably integrate reasonable human demands and the ecosystem''s ability for renewal، the inclusive factors of a healthy urban ecosystem can be drafted from both the human and ecological dimensions” (Su et al.، 2010، 2427). Mental restfulness and psychological health is one of important dimensions of human health that is affected by life environment attributes. In this respect، “A prerequisite for a sustainable urban environment is that it should not pose a threat to current or future users. The reduction of threats to personal health and the natural environment are the objectives commonly associated with the idea of sustainable urban development. However، in a sustainable urban environment it is also essential that the inhabitants should not have cause for fear for their personal safety and the safety of possessions” (Cozens، 2002; Du Plessis، 1999). CPTED (crime prevention through environmental design) is defined by Crowe (2000) as “the proper design and effective use of the built environment which can lead to a reduction in the fear of crime and the incidence of crime، and to an improvement in the quality of life”. It involves the design and management of the physical environment to reduce the opportunities for crime (Cozens، 2002). WHO has sought to place health more centrally on the sustainable development agenda (Schirnding، 2002). Sustainable development cannot be achieved if there is a high prevalence of debilitating illness and poverty، and the health of populations cannot be maintained without healthy environments and intact life-support systems (Schirnding، 2002). Poor health may cause entire families to drop into abject poverty، because of inability to work or the necessity to sell assets in order to pay for treatment (Smith et al.، 2009). Regional inequality in health could be a result of inequalities in economic development، public health expenditures، and health care services (Fanga et al.، 2010). For some، a commitment to equity in health means that all social groups should have a basic minimum level of well-being and services (Braveman and Tarimo، 2002). Today، investment in health is touted as the route to economic development. Substantially increased fund allocations for health، from both domestic and external aid، are promised to usher in economic growth (John and Abel، 2002). Urban planners have become increasingly interested in how they can help improve human health (Slotterback et al.، 2011). It is widely recognized that the spatial planning of human urban activity is affecting quality of life، health and well-being (Barton، 2009). Health and land use planning are historically linked. Modern planning originated in the nineteenth century expressly in order to combat unhealthy conditions. It was recognized then، and still is، that there is an umbilical link between environmental conditions and human health. The environment is seen as one of the key determinants of health، alongside inherited characteristics، lifestyles، and social and economic variables (Barton، 2009). The result of study show that 39 percent of households tend to migrate to metropolis. The most important factors affecting on tendency to migration to metropolis are as follows: shortcomings in health and curative services، shortage of leisure time spending spaces and shortage of security; these factors was named as “Life Health Factors”. For determining the rate of effect of selected factors on tendency to migration، regression analysis was used; in this way، mentioned three factors were assumed as independent variable and tendency to migration as dependent variable. Results show that these factors explain 78% of the changes of tendency to migration. So، it seems that improvement of healthy city indicators in new towns and satellite settlements - whose one of their main goals is absorption of metropolises’ overflow population- emphasizing mentioned three factors can decrease their people’s tendency to migration to metropolis. The main goals of establishing new towns and satellite settlements in Iran were decentralization، absorption of the overflow of metropolises’ population etc. Achieving this goal depends on making new towns as healthy environments; because these settlements should be alive and responsive enough to be effective in the way of requested aims. The result of this study shows that life health and environmental health are of great importance in this respect; shortcomings in health and curative services، shortage of leisure time spending spaces and shortage of security were main factors effecting population tendency to migration from new towns and satellite settlements to metropolis or downtown. All of these factors are related to human health dimensions; in fact، the mentioned factors have close link with mental restfulness and psychological health، health services etc. However، if new towns and satellite settlements of metropolises are not healthy environments، they cannot act effective in maintaining absorbed people، and they would be seen as temporary settlements and consequently they would not achieved their predicted goals. So، for preventing or decreasing these migrations، improvement of the healthy city indicators and life health factors in periphery settlements is necessary; In fact، the environment of these settlements should have enough attractions to decrease migration tendency.