فصلنامه تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی
سال چهارم شماره 15 (بهار 1393)

The unavoidable consequences of increased demand and decreasing water resources and Deduction rainfall and drought is caused to arise disutes among water user in recent years. On the other hand، vital need of agriculture sector to water and developing industry sector in Isfahan، have increased competition between water users of industry sector and agriculture sector. In this paper، we use game theory for optimal allocation water resources zayande rud basin. Amount of optimal allocation from zayande rud basin determine by using optimal pareto curve and four conflict solutions For each of sector with enivironment and for game two persons between mentioned sectors over 1379-1388 years. in three games ''industy sector and environment'' and ''agriculture sector and environment'' and ''agriculture sector and industry sector'' find out that allocation water resources isn''t optimal between mentioned sectors over 1379-1388 years. After deduction of drinking water، the resulting of game two persons between agriculture and industry sector is share of industry and share of agriculture sector is 85. 82% and 14. 18%،، respectively; in order to maximize total benefit Isfahan. on the other hand، estimation economic value of water in two sector determine water price in Agricultural sector 13010 rials per M3 and in Industry sector 6001. 95 rials per M3 by application linear programming and residual imputation approach. According to the large difference between the actual price of water and tariff set by Ministry of Power for agriculture sector and the results of game theory، it is proposed that give more value to the industry sector، Because it consume less water than agriculture and we use innovative methods for irigation in agriculture sector، so that we prevent from wastage of water resources in this sector.

Money is a facilitator of economic activities، thus، formatting of economic activity is dependent on the institutionalizing of monetary system. In common monetary system، the weakness of common perception about money، publishing and distributing mechanism led to inefficiencies in optimal allocation of resources and welfare cost of inflation tax. Partial equilibrium model in compare with general equilibrium model، underestimate welfare cost of inflation tax. Therefore، in dynamic optimization model، the equation of welfare cost of inflation tax، in addition to general equilibrium model of Lucas، derived from theoretical correction of demands for real money balances. Then welfare cost compared theoretically and experimentally in partial and general equilibrium model. Theoretical and experimental results indicate that the welfare costs of inflation tax in general equilibrium models، is an upper bound of partial equilibrium models. Also، given that the elasticity of demand for money in regard to the nominal interest rate، the welfare cost of inflation tax increases with nominal interest rate and inflation.

IN ACCORDANCE TO DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN IRAN، ELECTRONIC BANKING HAS BEEN DEVELOPED IN RECENT DECADE. A MEANINGFUL TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE STYLE OF EXISTING BANKING SYSTEM SERVICES، BY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE USE OF ELECTRONIC BANKING TOOLS IN TEN YEARS. THE REFLECTION OF THIS PHENOMEN IS CLEAR IN THE BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE AND BANKING SYSTEM WHO CARE ABOUT CASH، MONEY DEMAND PREFRENCES AND VARIATION IN THE COMPOSITION OF BANK RESOURCES. THEREFORE; EFFECTIVENESS OF E-BANKING ON VARIABLES SUCH AS MONEY DEMAND IS A TOPIC WHICH APPEARS ESSENTIAL TO STUDY. DEMAND MONEY FUNCTION IS ONE OF THE MAIN IMPORTANT PARTS OF MONETARY SYSTEM AND PLAY CRUCIAL ROLE IN TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY TO THE REAL ECONOMIC SECTION. THE IMPACT OF THIS ON OTHER COMPONENT OF ECONOMIC SYSTEM، BOTH MONETARY AND NON-MONETARY IS INEVITABLE. IN OTHER WORDS، TO ANALYZE MONETARY ISSUES AND SOLVING THE PROBLEMS، IT IS NECESSARY TO UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF MONEY DEMAND. IN THIS PAPER، THE DEMAND FUNCTION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED BY USING AR METHOD AND ENTERING EXOGENOUS VARIABLES IN MARKOV SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL. FOR MODELING OF MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION، SEASONAL DATA BETWEEN 2002 TO 2011 HAVE BEEN USED. ALSO THE EFFECT OF TRANSACTION VOLUME THROUGH POINT OF SALE (POS) AND AUTOMATIC TELLER MACHINE (ATM) AS EN-BANKING INDEX HAS BEEN DETERMINED. ACCORDING TO STABILITY TESTS، ESTIMATING THE MONEY DEMAND WICHE CONTAIN EN-BANKING VARIABLES IS UNSTABLE. THERFOR، IT CAN BE STATED THAT THE RESULTS OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES OF THE CENTRAL BANK AND THE GOVERNMENT TO ACHIEVE ITS GOALS DUE TO UNCERTAIN DEMAND MONEY POSITION، SOMETIMES IS REVERSED.

This article measures the market power in the loan and deposit markets in banking industry of Iran، including 10 state-owned and 4 private banks، during 1380-1389 (2001-2010) based on the evaluating of Lerner indices. To achieving this objective، a stochastic frontier cost function has been applied then market power was calculated. The main results of paper show over the observed period although market power in loan market has reduced، in deposit market it has increased. Outcome of calculations indicates some fluctuations in Lerner indices especially during (2005-10). So، it shows importance of economic policy aimed at removing the barriers of entry to market and regulation of them in order to make these markets more competitive.

One of the issues discussed in economy is the socioeconomic inequality in the society. Income mobility is another measure which indicates the degree of inequality of opportunity in a society. The extent of income mobility depends on socio-economic status of the individuals. Different socio-economic status leads to further inequality and increases inequality of opportunity. Such inequalities lead to the formation of Poverty which can be reproduced and transmitted from one cohort to the other، if not utilize the appropriate method. income mobility is measured as either conditional or absolute one. In Conditional mobility fixed effects are considered، however in absolute mobility it is not so. Fixed effect parameter that indicates the heterogeneity between individuals. According to the importance of the issue of poverty and the relation it has with inequality، this paper studies the conditional mobility in the economy of Iran. In this study Household Survey Data collected by Iran Statistical Center from 1988 till 2011 is used. The method of nonlinear dynamic pseudo-panel has been used in order to measure income inequality dynamics. Nonlinear dynamics of income inequality for urban areas in Iran are estimated. This method enables us to track the performance of each cohort over time. The main results of this study indicate that the conditional income mobility is low and dine quality in the country has increased over time. Facing negative shocks، households cannot quickly improve their situation and return to the initial income، and at the same time، the market operation in itself cannot fix the problem. This means that the market provides more favorable conditions for people who have higher power and wealth. This leads the inequality to spread to the higher level.

The growth of non-communicable diseases، and the enormous costs of health care، has led policy makers to focus on “education”، as an effective instrument to improve the public health. Recent empirical studies show that education can improve health and increase life expectancy via ameliorating the life style. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of education on health in Iran over the period of 1974- 2010. Health production function is defined based on the Grossman (1972) model. The empirical model has been estimated by using co-integration technique and error correction model. Separation of short and long-term effects and estimate of impact by education’s temporary and permanent lag time changes on health is considered the innovation aspect of this research. The results of model estimation indicate that there is a positive and long-term equilibrium relationship between health and education. Based on evidence obtained، education plays a key role in health improvement. Empowering people by investment in their education can prevent many non-communicable diseases. Diseases that are imposed by our incorrect life style. Today we believe that an active participation of elementary and high schools، higher education، and mass media can ameliorate the health statue of society.

The specification of money demand function is one of the most important and disputable subjects in economics. With regard to its importance، many of economists have represented several theorizes about money demand. The Sidrauski monetary model is an interesting theory of money demand. Sidrauski extended Ramsey model with regard real balance of money; which in the Sidrauski model the utility function involves both consumption and money. Application of Sidrauski model can help to extend macroeconomics with micro foundations in Iran and prepares new scopes for researchers. The main aim of this paper is to estimate the Sidrauski monetary model for Iranian economy over the period of 1979 -2011. For this purpose، the Engle – Granger، ARDL and Johansen- Juselius approaches have been used for estimation of long run relationship of money demand. The empirical results of econometric estimation of co-integration vector indicated a long run relationship between per capita money demand، per capita consumption، and inflation rate، rate of interest، exchange rate، per capita income، and stock exchange price index. Our results showed that per capita consumption and per capita income have positive and significant effect on per capita money demand. Whereas inflation rate، rate of interest، exchange rate and stock exchange price index have negative and significant effect on per capita money demand.

Establishment of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Tehran in 2001 has proved to be one of the most important changes in the gas market. Establishment of the forum has sparked the concern among the consuming countries that a cartel is being formed in the gas market، resulting in the disturbance of supply security and gas price rise. Evidence so suggests the forum is facing fundamental obstacles to form a cartel or any other influential institution. On the other hand، considering the remarkable fall in gas prices during last months، it is necessary to present a model for determining the GECF Members Gas Export Quotas to decrease the gas supply and to increase gas prices. In this paper، we present a model which if it is applied by the GECF members we can expect that gas prices will increase. Hence in this paper first we present two mechanisms for determining the GECF member’s quotas، then considering the current situation of the members in natural gas market the optimal rationing mechanism selected. Besides، for determining the total optimal amount of production in each period as optimal total export of forum two different methods present. The first is more complicated but more accurate.