فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
پیاپی 11 (پاییز 1393)

The main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of inflationary environment on the degree of exchange rate pass through in Iran over the period 1975-2009. For this purpose، first high and low inflation regimes has been derived using the Markov–Switching model and then، the impact of inflationary environments on exchange rate pass through to export prices have been estimate using Johansen- johansen juselius cointegration technique. The empirical findings show that the environment inflationary impact has symmetric effects on the degree of exchange rate pass- through to export prices a، so that the high inflationary environment، the degree of exchange rate pass through is 0/77% and low inflationary environment، the degree of cross rates of exchange is 0/51 percent. Also، the empirical results show that marginal cost of partners and openness have a positive and negative and significant impact on the export prices in Iran، respectively. The overall conclusion is that in the high inflationary environment، the degree of exchange rates pass- through has been increased and consequently export competitiveness has declined. Therefore، the rise in exchange rates، especially in high inflationary environment there is not suitable policy for export development.

Financial markets are the head of economic systems and the center of decision-making. If these markets face failure، functioning of the economic system will suffer as a whole. This study investigates the long-run relationship (threshold co-integration) of financial development with income inequality in the Iran’s economy for the period 1971 to 2011. The results indicate that there is threshold co-integration among the variables and the results of TVAR. LR test show that the model has only one threshold. Also، the results suggest that financial market development increases income inequality till a particular threshold value. After this، threshold value decreases income inequality. A threshold of financial development is necessary to reduce income inequality. Also، speeds of adjustment before and after threshold value are 41% and 80% respectively. The adjustment speed will increase after reaching the threshold value and in each period 80 percent of non-equilibrium is adjusted in the next period after threshold value.

This paper evaluates industrial market structure using structural model and non-structural model in 131 industries with 4 digits ISIC code during 1996 to 2008. The results of concentration indicators show that competition factor in Iran''s industry sector is are low. On the other hand، analysis degree of competition and monopolistic in indicate that according to Boone indicator (-0. 12) and Herfindahl-Hirschman index (0. 24)، Iran''s manufacturing industries sector operate under conditions of monopolistic competition، and also Lerner index (0. 36) confirm this result. «Manufacture of Motor Vehicles» with a share of equal to 16. 38 percentages has the biggest relative sales share، that base on concentration indicators estimate، operates close to monopolistic condition.

In real business cycle models، the concept of habit formation، which can explain phenomena such as the equity premium puzzle، is mostly restricted to the consumption part of the utility function of the representative household. At least، a detailed analysis of the dynamics of a model with habit formation in both consumption and leisure does not yet exist in Iran studies. In this study، by making adjustments in real business cycle model، a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) is designed for Iran in which one can show the business cycle characteristics of Iranian economy. Findings in this research show that leisure and consumption habits parameters in the model can change consumption، leisure and production more than before. The results indicate that if the leisure habit parameter is considered in the utility function، it can reduce production further.

The causal link between money and output has been widely debatedin the literature over the past decades; however، the results are inconclusive. The review of the literature shows that results of causality tests appear to be sensitive to the sample period employed. To overcome this problem، we use a VAR model with time varying parameters، and these variations are governed by a Markov chain. In this paper، we use quarterly data from 1376 to 1391 and a Markov-Switching VAR model with two regimes to examine the causality between the output and money in Iran. The results show that money Granger-causes output only in the first regime، which covers the period from 1384:3 to 1390:3. Therefore، in the Iranian economy money is not always neutral. In addition، the results show that the output is a Granger-cause of the money in both regimes; however، the link is negative in the regime 1. In other words، it indicates that money and output were changing in opposite directions in the regime 1.

The industry as one of the most productive sectors is one of the most applicants energy especially natural gas. In this study using structural time series model (STSM) for evaluating demand for natural gas in the industrial sector of Iran is the focus of the analysis. Such model contains unobservable elements which have been transported to state space model with the use of kalman filter and is estimated by implementing maximum likelihood approach for the period of 1981-2011. Finding of the research is that، first of all the nature of the trend is smooth one. Secondly، it is changing on a nonlinear basis. The estimated demand function shows that price elasticity for natural gas in the long and short run is less than unit، correspondingly، (-0. 33) and (-0. 16). So، natural gas price in the short and long term is inelastic and even the time horizon which is one of the effective factors on the value of elasticity، have no influence on this good. Hence، it is suggested using nonpricing policies like induce production sector through tax-deductible depreciation and financing industries through the banking system. However، production elasticities of natural gas in the short and long run، correspondingly، are 2. 08 and 0. 99. These findings show that in the short term to keep pace with increased production in the manufacturing sector، the more intensive use of natural gas is observed. Cross elasticity for electricity is estimated to be 1. 64 in the long run and 0. 76 in the short run. This result suggests that in the long run the possibility of changing or replacing devices is high. The result of considering the implementation of the Targeting of Subsidies Plan shows that this policy has no influence on natural gas demand in industrial sector of Iran.

Foreign trade as one of the tools of globalization leads to international competition and participation of countries in economic activities. In the foreign trade process، uncompetitive activities will lost the ability to survive and will increase the level of unemployment. But if foreign trade increases through the development and boom of exports، it will lead to the creation of job opportunities with higher performance. The aim of this research is to analyze the effects of export booms on the unemployment rate in Iran. To this end، the annual data during the period 1974-2012، ARDL model، bounds test cointegration and Granger causality test were used. The results indicate the existence of cointegration between the variables. The results show that the export booms in both the short run and long run have a negative and significant effect on unemployment rate. The error correction term shows in each period 95 percent of disequilibrium will adjust along the long run equilibrium path. The results of conditional Granger causality test show that there is no short-run causality between variables. However، the long-run causality relationship from terms of trade، capital accumulation in tradable sector، capital accumulation in non-tradable sector، labor supply، and inflation to unemployment rate is accepted at the 1% level.

Monetary policy is the lever by which the Central Bank can achieve economic stability and price control. In this study، the reaction function of the Central Bank to the deviations of target inflation and potential output is used based on Taylor’s rule. The approach which has recently been considered is that the rate of Central Bank reactions to the objectives of output gap and inflation deviation is different in different business cycles. Therefore، in this study، the models are estimated using quantile regression during the period 1353-1389 for the time which Central Bank reaction is symmetric or asymmetric. The results show that the Central Bank does not react to the output gap during the periods of recession and prosperity while it reacts to the inflation deviation in the opposite way.

Agricultural sector is one of the most productive sectors of the Iranian economy which has been exposed to energy price increases interact in the recent years. Energy is one of the most important factors affecting the performance of productive sectors such as agriculture which due to its key role in the production process، its probable reducing or increasing in demand and consumption is involving considerable importance. Therefore، this study seeks to answer that according to the subordinated relationship between agricultural performance and energy and other factors demand، how is the impact of liberalization of the energy prices on the demand for the Iranian agricultural major production factors. Hence، in this study، using the panel data for the period of 1991-2011 and the system of seemingly unrelated equations (ISUR) the conditional demand function of the production factors of the agricultural sectors was estimated for the provinces. Results showed that energy demand in the agricultural sector will reduce by the liberalization of the energy price. Also، the results showed that by increasing the energy carrier’s price، the demand for the production factors land and labor in the agricultural sector will increase. It is because of the adoption and continuation of alternative funding and allocation of credits for the energy consumption reforms to keep pace with the liberalization of the energy price. Finally، results showed that the outcome of these polices has caused that the liberalization of the energy prices can be seen as opportunity for the agricultural sector.

In many developing countries، agriculture as the dominant sector of the economy is known. High share of employment and value added in agriculture and increasing food demand increases the importance of this sector and the agricultural sector may be seen as a precondition for economic development. Capital has always been known as one of the factors affecting economic growth is considered. According to the government''s role in the economy and the need for private investment in the economy، this study examines the impact of GDP on infrastructure spending، government spending، government consumption، interest rates، inflation and uncertainty on private investment in agriculture has. For this purpose، time series data during 1350 to 1387 and of Johansen - Juselius (1990) are used. The results of this study indicate that government infrastructure spending and economic growth in private investment in the agricultural sector are significant and positive impact On the other variable interest rate uncertainty and private investment in the agricultural sector are significant and negative impact.