فصلنامه پژوهش ها و سیاست های اقتصادی
پیاپی 72 (زمستان1393)

Taxes، are healthiest source of funds for infrastructure investments and an important stimulus for economic growth and development. Revenues of local government’s substantially relate to the power and efficiency of the tax system Since the tax value of tax system over time، spontaneously changes in the passage of time، tax reforms and regime changes are always necessary. Using of fuzzy sets in decision problems is one of the most important applications of this theory in comparison to classical set theory. The reason is that decision making problems considerably relate to human mind and knowledge. Therefore، in this paper، the fuzzy logic is used for ranking the tax systems. The findings indicate that VAT systemic substantially more favorable than import tax، Property taxes، Income Taxes sale and consumption taxes further، the import tax، Income tax، Taxes on consumption and sale And property taxes are respectively in the next levels.

Nowadays regarding the scarcity of production factors and human countless needs, there should be more emphasis placed on optimal use of available resources and higher growth rates of productivity and efficiency in order to meet the national development goals. One of the preconditions to enhance productivity and efficiency is to have access to foreign markets and promote exports. For this purpose, the main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of exports on technical efficiency in chemical and fundamental metal subdivisions in Iran, over the period (2000-2009). Therefore, at first, the technical efficiency in chemical and fundamental metal subdivisions has been estimated by using stochastic frontier production function, which indicates that average technical efficiency is 0.77. Then, the link between technical efficiency and chemical and fundamental metal exports has been estimated by using dynamic panel data approach. The empirical results show that export, foreign technology import, human capital and firm size have positive and significant effects on technical efficiency of chemical and fundamental metal subdivisions in Iran.

The financial crisis of 2007 showed that the impact of financial markets on macroeconomic developments is so considerable. One of the important markets affected by financial variables, is the labor market. This paper investigates the impact of financial shocks on labor market fluctuations with financial frictions in the Iranian economy. Labor market reaches equilibrium via a search and matching process. For this purpose, a model of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) is designated for the Iranian economy and its parameters are estimated using Bayesian methods. Results show that a negative financial shock increases unemployment. In addition, financial frictions play an important role in amplifying the effects of financial shocks on unemployment.

During previous years, Iran’s economy has been faced with numerous fluctuations, while in some cases it turned to a financial crisis as that of 2011-2012. However, the main question is that whether the financial crisis during 2011-2012 has been similar and predictable based on previous financial crises of Iran’s economy. In the present research, firstly, based on previous studies in the subject of Iran’s financial crises, the years of financial crises in Iran’s economy during years of 1978-2012 were determined. The corresponding results have indicated that three kinds of financial crises including Currency Crises, Money Crises and Twin Crisis (simultaneous Money and Currency Crisis), were occurred in Iran’s economy during 1979-2008. Then the financial crisis periods (in which two or more financial crisis years are included) were determined, the political and economic events during each of them were expressed and the reasons of occurrence of financial crises in each of them were described. Then the data of 10 macroeconomic variables of Iran’s economy belonging to 1978-2012 were deployed. Based on data of 1979-2008 as input data and information about crisis and non-crisis year and special kind of financial crisis in each crisis year as target data, the LVQ model was trained, in order to learn crisis and non-crisis patterns (behavioral patterns of macroeconomic variables in crisis and non-crisis years), and to learn to recognize the various kinds of crisis patterns (to understand which kinds of financial crises has been occurred in each crisis year). Then the trained model (trained model based on data of 1979-2008) was simulated using the data of 10 macroeconomic variables of Iran’s economy during 2008-2012, in order to access the capacity of occurred financial crises of years of 1979-2008 to explain and predict the financial crisis of Iran’s economy during 2011-2012. The results of simulation process indicated that the financial crisis of Iran’s economy during 2011-2012 has had a completely different kind of crisis pattern, compared with those patterns which have occurred in Iran’s economy during 1978-2012.

during previous years, Iran’s economy has been faced with numerous fluctuations, while in some cases it turned to a financial crisis as that of 2011-2012. However, the main question is that whether the financial crisis during 2011-2012 has been similar and predictable based on previous financial crises of Iran’s economy. In the present research, firstly, based on previous studies in the subject of Iran’s financial crises, the years of financial crises in Iran’s economy during years of 1978-2012 were determined. The corresponding results have indicated that three kinds of financial crises including Currency Crises, Money Crises and Twin Crisis (simultaneous Money and Currency Crisis), were occurred in Iran’s economy during 1979-2008. Then the financial crisis periods (in which two or more financial crisis years are included) were determined, the political and economic events during each of them were expressed and the reasons of occurrence of financial crises in each of them were described. Then the data of 10 macroeconomic variables of Iran’s economy belonging to 1978-2012 were deployed. Based on data of 1979-2008 as input data and information about crisis and non-crisis year and special kind of financial crisis in each crisis year as target data, the LVQ model was trained, in order to learn crisis and non-crisis patterns (behavioral patterns of macroeconomic variables in crisis and non-crisis years), and to learn to recognize the various kinds of crisis patterns (to understand which kinds of financial crises has been occurred in each crisis year). Then the trained model (trained model based on data of 1979-2008) was simulated using the data of 10 macroeconomic variables of Iran’s economy during 2008-2012, in order to access the capacity of occurred financial crises of years of 1979-2008 to explain and predict the financial crisis of Iran’s economy during 2011-2012. The results of simulation process indicated that the financial crisis of Iran’s economy during 2011-2012 has had a completely different kind of crisis pattern, compared with those patterns which have occurred in Iran’s economy during 1978-2012.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare volatility and spillover effect among oil, Gold and exchange rate (US Dollars-Euro) markets in last decade and the decade before 2003. Using weekly data from 1993 to 2012, this paper employs econometric methods like M.GARCH-ASY-M (Multivariate GARCH Asymmetry Mean) and BEEK model to estimate the volatility magnitude and spillover effects in markets mentioned, Results show the relationship between markets and their power for risk transferring is significantly affected by the news and volatility persistency in a market. The persistent increase in oil prices after 2003 causes a significant relationship between returns and augmentation of spillover transferring among oil, gold an exchange rate markets. So, this finding show how the news and information among markets can augment the relationship between returns and risk spillover magnitude. Finally, the strength of effects depends on the persistency of news flows from one market to another.

Portfolio optimization is one of the challenges facing businesses. Different experts with different assumptions for each asset in the portfolio invested in finding the optimal weights are different ways to do this is to design and implement, since one of the major activities of investment funds, the investment company and etc Is portfolio optimization, select the appropriate method of optimization is essential for the company. Due to the limitations of the mean-variance method based on the normal distribution of asset returns. Technique without these limitations, the use of companies and investors are better. On the other hand, if the measure of conditional value at risk (CVaR), in addition to having all the standard features of the Value at Risk (VaR), has more advantages than the criterion value at risk, such as simply computing a more accurate measure of risk, consider taking various possibilities for different scenarios, we also investigate why their currency risk criteria used to conditional value at risk. Based on this research for both gold and copper using weekly data beginning 2002 to end 2013 using Gussian copula Finally, we would like to create an optimal portfolio and establish evaluation it’s. Sharp ratio with sharp ratio of mean-CVaRoptimazation

To cover the cost of governance and to establish fiscal discipline, it is required to consider operationally a utility, in the reference laws and programs for economic development named “tax compliance”. The objective of this study is to derive "tax compliance "proxies from economic development laws in Iran. For this purpose, the statistical description methods aroused. The Frequency analysis of Iran's economic development issues shows that almost 70 percent of issues are irrelative to tax compliance in laws of development programs. In other words, only about 30% of the subjects are related to tax compliance. However, according to theoretical basis presented in this paper, it is recommended to include the related issues, in reference rules such as development codes and nonrelated issues in other specific laws, especially in tax guidance and directives.

This paper analyzes public spending changes in the Iranian economy during the period 1360-1390 using the standard median voter model in which the median voter has fiscal illusion. In this regard, Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model and multivariate cointegration methods have been used in order to test the median voter theorem. The results from estimated models indicate that public expenditure, oil revenues and share of taxes in government revenues cointegrated together and there is a long run equilibrium relationship among them. Also increasing share of taxes in government revenues doesnt have any effect on public expenditures; because public expenditures considerably depend on oil revenues. Thus, tax payers have illusion fiscal. These findings show that in order to increase the efficiency of public sector in Iran, the dependence of budget to oil revenues should decrease and the share of tax revenues in government revenues should increase.