فصلنامه اقتصاد مقداری
سال نهم شماره 3 (پیاپی 34، پاییز 1391)

This paper is aimed at determining optimum monetary policy (MP) under uncertainty conditions. Existing obscurity about the relationship between inflation and unemployment may cause error for monetary policy. The findings of this paper show: first, the negative relationship between inflation and unemployment has not been confirmed. Second: based on Central Bank optimizing lose function, the travelled track of money volume is far from optimum trend, especially during the period of 1360-1385. Further, the main outcome shows that Central Bank should control inflation rate rather than unemployment. In fact monetary policy should concentrate on controlling inflation rate and ignore employment target.

In this paper we will investigate the impact of price and production shocks of crude oil on macroeconomic variables in Iran using an open economy DSGE model. To this end, the transmission channels of oil shocks have been specified in accordance with the structure of the Iran economy. Simulation results of the model show that oil shocks has negative effect on output, investment and capital stock, but cause increase in inflation, consumption and marginal cost. On the other hand, oil shocks have a positive effect on government spending and money supply. These results confirm the hypothesis of the resource curse in the economy of Iran and show that oil shocks played a key role in shaping monetary and fiscal policies and inflation. Hence in order to avoid bad consequences resulting from oil shocks, it is suggested that Central Bank keeps its supervision on the exchange reserve account and national development fund. Furthermore, it is suggested that there should be mechanisms to reduce the dominance of the government on Central Bank and maintaining authenticity of Central Bank in doing its two main tasks: keeping the value of the national currency and controlling inflation.

Divorce is one of the social problems in our society and unfortunately، the divorce rate is increasing in Iran. Recently، Economists and sociologists have concentrated on economic issues as the root of many social problems such as divorce. In this paper، we investigate the effect of household income volatility on divorce in Iran by separating the household income shocks into transitory and permanent components. The study uses panel data of 30 states in Iran for the period of 2004-2012 (8 years). We find that at the 5% significant level، transitory household income shocks increase the rate of divorce، while the rate of divorce is not affected by permanent household income shocks. Moreover، some factors affecting the rate of divorce are examined in this study. The results at 5% significant level show that unemployment rate، women''s economic participation rate and region-of-residence index have positive and significant effect on the divorce rate. However، literacy rate and household income have negative effect on divorce rate. Urbanization ratio (at the %10 significant level) has also positive and significant effect on divorce rate.

High degree of instability in exports of primary goods, can lead to negative effect on economic growth in developing countries. Any instability in the foreign exchange revenues will cause uncertainty in economic development planning. To measure the agricultural trade volatility, hodrick–prescott filter and the Markov switching model in two regimes were used for the period of 1981- 2011. Our findings indicate that in 14 years increasing and in 17 years declining has been take place in agricultural export activities. The years of declining were longer than years of increasing. Increasing periods have more steepness than declining periods. Thus, during the study period, the agricultural sector has been more declining volatility in exports, resulting in vulnerability of non-oil exports. This effect also exist in the agriculture.

The production of a country can be achieved by accumulation and interaction of three kinds of capital. First, physical capital through improvements in quality of tools and machinery and increases in labor productivity and thereby improve welfare, Second, human capital that will be realized in the form of skills, education and training; and Third, social capital that facilitate, expedite and reduce the cost of economic exchange and thus increase the productivity. Thus, using ARDL model for the period of 1992-2009, this paper, examines the effect of variables: growth rate of gross fixed capital as an indicator of physical capital, the rate of literacy (literacy and education coverage) as an indicator of human capital and international risk index (ICRG) as an indicator of social capital on total factor productivity. Results show that physical capital has no significant effect on productivity, but human and social capitals have positive and significant effects on productivity both in short-run and long-run.

The emergence of Internet, communication and information technology as the third millennium gift, have changed various aspects of human life. Internet has dramatically reduced the communication costs due to removing time and place limitation of economic transactions Services trade is part of international trade. Increase in services trade is mostly due to development of internet systems around the world. The purpose of this research is to study the effect of internet development on international services trade of all countries in the world. To do that, using panel data method and adjusted gravity model, we have examined the effect internet development on service trade. The results proved a positive and significant relation between internet and services trade. Furthermore, there is a positive and significant relation between services trade and gross domestic product, financial depth, and population. The outcomes from analyzing sensitivity model also showed that the results are not sensitive to the change of time period, statistics sample, and internet replacement.