فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال پانزدهم شماره 1 (بهار 1394)

Various socio-economic factors affect employment. In this regard, offering credit facilities has attracted the attention of economic policy-makers. This study aims to evaluate the impact of credit facilities on employment in Iranian industrial cooperatives. For this purpose, the Constant Elasticity Substitution(CES) production function and panel data regression analysis are used to analyze the relationship between credit facilities and employment in provincial industrial cooperatives during the period 2006-2010. The results show that the offering credit facility is of significant effect on employment. The elasticity coefficient of employment with respect to credit facilities and technical services facilities is 0.1. In addition, the elasticity of employment with respect to credit facilities of fastest-growing and entrepreneur firms is 0.05. These figures indicate the different effects of facilities on employment in industrial cooperatives, and fastest-growing and entrepreneur firms.

On the factors affecting economic growth and per-capita income, the less attention has been paid to “population age structure”. We aim to investigate the effect of changes in population age structure on per capita income in Iran. To do this, we identify the most important effective channels according to review of literature. Then we design an empirical model that indicates the relationship between population age structure and per-capita income based on the neoclassical growth literature. In the next step we estimate and test the model in three specifications by Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method during 1968-2010. The results indicate that the per capita income elasticity of labor supply (as the direct effectiveness channel of changes in population age structure on per capita income) is positive. In addition, indirect channels (which include savings, human capital and government spending) indicate that the per capita income elasticity with respect to an increase in share of population between the ages 15 to 64 is positive, and per capita income elasticity with respect to an increase in share of population below age 15 and above age 65 is negative.

In this article, we examine Samuelson's hypothesis on maturity effect in gold coin futures contracts traded in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME). According to this hypothesis, the volatility of futures prices increases as future contracts approaches expiration date. The results show that the maturity effect is so weak in future contracts under investigation. This effect is acceptable in 5 out of 29 contracts. These contracts have been traded from 25 November 2008 to 21 September 2012. There are two different hypotheses on maturity effect in future contracts; the state variable hypothesis and negative covariance hypothesis. The state variable hypothesis states that the variability of futures prices is systematically higher in those periods when relatively large amounts of supply and demand uncertainty are resolved, i.e., during periods in which the resolution of uncertainty is high. According to negative covariance hypothesis, maturity effect is more likely to hold in markets that exhibit negative covariance between changes in spot prices and changes in net carry costs. Using panel data and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) techniques, we conclude that no hypothesis is held for IME gold coin futures contracts.

Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel is one of the ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities, Rev.2) that produced 8.5 percent of industry value-added in Iran in 2007. Isfahan, Tehran, Khuzestan, Hormozgan, and Markazi provinces accounted for 90 percent of the value added in this sector. To determine competitive advantage in this sector, the regional input- output technique is used and AFLQ (Adjusted Flegg Location Quotient) is employed for making regional input- output tables. But this method is misleading, because it defines weak provinces as key sectors. This article presents new method (MFLQ) that provides better result than AFLQ. Isfahan (as a developed province) is not key sector in AFLQ method but it is key sector by MFLQ method.

This study computes the value at risk (VAR) of metal ores and pharmaceutical industries in Tehran Stock Exchange by using parametric approach (GARCH Models) and semi-parametric approach (the combination of Wavelet Analysis and GARCH). The results and evaluation of two approaches confirms the hypothesis indicating better and more efficient performance of Semi-parametric approach compared with that of parametric methods. In fact, in high confidence levels, the semi-parametric approach proposed has lower MSE and failure rates compared to parametric approach. On the other hand, investing in pharmaceutical industry due to the increasing health needs, increase in life expectancy and its effect on public health is less-risky than that of metal ores industry.

One of the main goals of developing countries is to achieve a sustainable economic growth. The exports promotion can directly help economic growth. Therefore, recognizing the factors influencing economic growth is of utmost important. Regarding the significance of factors affecting non-oil exports in trade policy making, this study aims to investigate the impact of exports insurance subsidy and other relevant variables on non-oil exports in Iran. To do this, the short- and long-term relationships between non-oil exports and exports insurance subsidy are estimated by Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) over the period 1995-2011. The results show that exports insurance subsidy is of positive effect on non-oil exports in both short- and long-term.

Regarding the differences among firms on financial position and access to various financial resources, the selection of a proper variable, which represents actual cost of capital of a firm, is of great importance in explaining the firms demand for money. In order to improve the estimation of interest rate elasticity of demand for money by manufacturing firms, this paper computes the cost of capital for each firm. Using firm level panel data for 161 manufacturing companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange, the demand for money is estimated over the period 2000 to 2010. It is found that (a) the firms in which the cost of capital is higher, have low real balances; (b) the average cost of capital and its variations implies that the weight of cost of capital should be reexamined by monetary authority; and (c) the sensitivity of demand for money to fluctuations in wage is more than to interest rate.

The aim of the present study is to compare the regional differences of the intermediate factors productivity in production of various economic sectors. For this purpose, first the regional input-output tables of all provinces of Iran have been extracted based on the Adjusted Flegg Location Quotient (AFLQ). Then, the intermediate factors productivity of all provinces has been calculated and compared with those of Tehran province. According to the results, “manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco products”, “constructions”, and “manufacture of textiles, wearing, and leather” sectors have the lowest regional differences in the intermediate factors productivity, respectively. Also, “mining”, “activities of real estate agents, brokers, and renting and business”, and “electricity, gas, and water” sectors have the highest regional differences of the intermediate factors productivity, respectively.

In this article, using two criteria of rivalry and excludability, the direct production factors are classified as physical capital, human capital and technology. Based on the new theories of economic growth, essential role of human capital in innovation, adoption and application of new technologies is emphasized. Then to explain differences of economic growth across countries, institutions as the fundamental causes of economic growth are discussed. It is argued that institutions provide circumstances in which proximate causes of production are accumulated and used. Institutions signal to the economic agents to pursue productive or rent seeking activities. In this regard, paradoxical findings of empirical studies as to effects of human capital on economic growth are analyzed. Using a cross-section data, based on 10-year average of output per worker for about 90 countries over the period 2001-2010, the interaction effect of human capital and institutional quality on growth is evaluated. The main implication of the model for Iranian economy is: Notwithstanding the huge investments in human capital, which mainly financed by oil revenues, low quality of institutions has led to slow economic growth.

Inflation is the main problem which should be overcome both by the government and economic agents. The existence of inflation in an economy causes distortion and disequilibrium in the macroeconomic variables in the forms of decreasing growth rate, rising unemployment rate and uneven income distribution and so on. In addition, the uncertainties caused by the high inflation rates, raise the inflation expectations. This paper tries to found out which type of inflation expectations gives the better explanation of current inflation: backward-looking, forward-looking or some combination of the two? Using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and annual data over the period 1976-2008, the results of hybrid Philips model show that inflation in Iran is significantly determined by backward-looking inflation expectations, forward-looking inflation expectations, the output gap, exchange rate, and liquidity growth. However, backward-looking inflation expectations are more important than forward-looking expectations. The findings imply that managing inflation expectations, liquidity growth, and exchange rate can complement each other to achieve overall price stability.