نشریه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی
سال بیست و پنجم شماره 4 (پیاپی 56، زمستان 1393)

Introduction One of the most important responsibilities on the applied geomorphology science is to analyze the location and value of vulnerable an endangered human environments against different geomorphical dangers. Natural incidences are complex phenomena influencing all parts of Earth globe. A research has been done about the loses made by the massive movements in Iran. The research reports that based on the Information Archive until Shahrivar, 1386, it is estimated that the loses are about 126893 milliard rials. For a number of 4900 landslies. There has been much in crease in using the Graphical models particulary the Bayesian networks to model the natural resources specially for the risk of landslide incidence in the recent decades. The purpose of this research is zoning the criticality of landslides in Neyshabur aquifer by using the probability models for weight of Evidence. The research is going to detect and determine the regions critical to landside by using this method. And finally after detecting, the executive actions should be followed in controlling the region to save the energy and the capital. Methodology In the first step, 32 tandslides and their sliding zones or locations were detected by using the sliding locations got from the information archive about Iran landslides and then A map was prepared about the disturbance of the landslides in the region. The next step included preparing an information database about the effective factors on landslides. Then the zones critical to landslide in the pressure aquifers were detected to accomplish the research by using the above mentioned data based on the probability models of weight of evidence (Bayesian) the Bayesian networks are called belief networks, casual networks and influence diagrams too. The pressure aquifers is located in northwestern part of Neyshaboor in a 40k.m distance from the north of Firoozeh town. The basin is mathematically located Between to northern latitude and to Eastern longitudes in the Sonthern slopes of Binalood mountains. Discussion The map for the Region landslides disturbance was used in the probability method of weight of Evidence to weigh and evaluate different information layers. After preparing the weight maps based on the model relations, the map for danger criticality for landslide incidence was prepared and then it was categorized into four classes or groups (low danger, Average danger, much danger and very much danger) based on the Natural Breaks. Therefore we cant use the map of region landslides disturbance to evaluate the mentioned maps and to determine their preciseness. Almost 70 percents of the sliding regions were used to model the mentioned theory and the other 30 percents were used to evaluate the above mentioned model. Then the accuracy of the prepared maps was verified by using roc curre. Finally the most precise map was suggested as the final map for evaluating the critical danger of landslide in the region. Conclusion The results obtained from considering the relations among effective factors on the landslide occurrence shows that the most of the region slides were characterized and categorized in slope degrees which is also found out from analyzing the maps prepared by suing the probability theory of Bayesian. The southern and Eastern South of the region characterizes convex form slopes having a height category of 1580-1700 m. the area is used for some garden fields, having about 0-300 m and 300-600 m distance from the fracture or rupture including the data from (Dlichai Formation) lithology information, and the region has a humidity index of 20-30, having the aqueduct capacity index of 45-60. In this research these features had the most weights of evidence and there for criticality. Evaluating the model was accomplished by using the roc model curres, and also the precision of the probability model which was obtained from the region was measured very well. (in was a good measurement of 76/51 percents).The research results present that the most important and effective factors on the region slope instability are the lithology factor, the distance from the fracture and the humidity index.

Abstract New cities as we experience, think, plan, planning, manufacturing, policy and human utopia against conflict cities of the late nineteenth century that without ability distribution and proper organization of population and its activities introduced. Escape of the problems This new approach without the Assessment and Evaluation the condition time, social, economical and space effective and special on The urban landscapes that occur in all cities raised quickly build. This article Objective This article evaluated the dynamics and mobility of these cities that mainly the type of satellite cities and to organize on population of major cities are designed. Data and information includes assessment of urban dynamics indicators such as population, residence, mobility, natural and historical attractions and their sub-branches following model is ELECTRE. According to the research objective that is evaluation and selection successful model, new towns Parand, Binaloud, Baharestan Sadra, Sahand are examined where influence regions in major cities and with regard to growth, prosperity and dynamism them positioning. Results indicated that among the cities studied the New Town Sadra according to matrix effectively coordinated and uncoordinated has better. Finally, with choose a dynamic model and SWOT analytical techniques characterized qualitative factors affecting the process and suit strategies to specific circumstances presented in each city.

Development of tourism as the series of economic activities has an important affect in the economic basis of societies. Development of this industry has a sequence as diversity in outcomes, decreasing of economic instabilities, production of exchange and creating jobs. Iran in position of tourism attraction, archeological sites and natural beauties has an equal situation with developed countries and stays in the ranking of the best ten touristic countries. Yet, this industry has an inconsiderable role in Iran economy. In geographical view, RudbarQasran contains particular natural potentials. The natural potentials and capacities can provide a suitable situation for development of tourism. These potentials are in such position that this area can be transform as a touristic section. However due to lack of proper planning and policy, natural resources and tourism potential remains useless and without value. This research is an attempt to study strategies for tourism development of QasranRudbar sector using decision-making techniques and models (SWOT and QSOM). Research paradigm is practical thus, the research is goal orientate. Prevailing methods of survey is research descriptive and utilizes of the Delphi method. For data collection library methods, direct observation and field methods have been used. Finally to achieve the objectives of the research, compilation and completion of the questionnaire in Likert format took place. The populations in this study are divided to three community official, tourists and natives. Sampling of first community which is officials and experts considering of few officials in QasranRudbar, for most of them (20 questionnaires) was prepared. For sampling of tourists an estimate during the summer holiday of incoming tourists to QasranRudbar was performed, (by the authorities) which was equivalent to about 50000 people, and among them, 381 people were chosen by the Cochran formula. Sampling method in this research was random. About the natives, according to the fixed part of QasranRudbar is 17582, 375 was chosen by Cochran formula. Samplingmethods of this population is cluster. In this method research area divided into North, East, West and Central clusters and from each cluster two village or town where selected and there the tools was implemented randomly. To investigate the capabilities and limitation of tourism development in QasranRudbar five aspects consist environment 18 items, structural and infrastructural 11 items, social-cultural 12 items, economic 10 items and management-institutional 10 items, have been considered. For guidelines submission three-stage framework was used. A: The input stage consists of internal factors evaluation matrix (IFE) and external factors evaluation (EFE) are used. In order to determine the coefficient of each factor and determine the strategic placement of the top and bottom views of the Delphi Group were used to results of the matrixto be used to obtain the final score. B: In the next step, which is implementation, SWOT matrix, in WT, SO, WO, ST strategies, was formed and at this step internal and external matrix (IE) is developed. C: The third step that is decision making, using quantitative strategic planning matrix to provide guidelines for improving performance are derived. 3- In data entry step for providing strategies and after the matrix analysis of internal and external among the internal factors S1 the natural attraction (waterfalls, forests, rivers and beautiful valleys and dense plant and animal species) and W1 the avalanche and downfall prone slopes were placed at first priorities. Among external factors, O1 the perfect climate for the development of tourism activities were identified as the most important external factor. In second stage for providing strategies according to the total score of the final matrix, evaluation of internal and external factors that were 2.75 and 2.73, showed that the tourism sector of QasranRudbar is in the medium statues. At this step according to the tourism situation of QasranRudbar sector priorities and importance of revisions strategies and subsequent aggressive-competition strategies was evident. At third stage for providing strategies by comparing the total attractiveness score of each strategies were ranked on the basis of attractiveness from high to low, with consideration of a definable period, prioritized for tourism development and each strategies should be given priority to implement. In this stage protection strategies SO3, development of ecotourism attraction as the main platform of QasranRudbar sector for increased duration of staying of tourists, and using capabilities and potentials of natural, historical and cultural SO4 of QasranRudbar sector to create new opportunities for the natives employment and income levels, both with final total attractiveness score 3.01 as the most important strategies is in priority group. 4- Conclusion For providing appropriate strategies have to investigate and understand theresearch questions problems. Moreover, should identifying the external factors (opportunities and threats) and internal factors (strengths and weaknesses) and identifying the tourism situation of the sector. These factors, along whit the ability of the tourism in QasranRudbar sector and policies and specific features can be useful in tourism development strategies selection. Aftar investigations and devaluations have been presented in the input stage strategies, the importance of the natural environment and the internal and external factors than the other dimensions were determined. In the match stage according to the mean total of the final score of internal and external factors, showed that the tourism situation is in average state. The third stage is the stage of deciding, using quantitative strategies planning matrix relative attractiveness of strategies was determined. At the end of this stage the results that obtained showed the importance of reviewing and competitive-aggressive strategies for QasranRudbar tourism development than other strategies. Other strategies were in the second and third priorities.

Effect on planetary climate modeling precipitation indices in East Azarbaijan Case study: city of Tabriz Abstract In order to model and assess the direct and indirect effects of climate indices on monthly and annual precipitation in East Azarbaijan, the Station of Tabriz because of having a long-term statistics as well as the representative of the province was investigated. therefore, the amounts of precipitation, relative humidity and maximum temperature of the city and 13 planetary climatic indicators in the annual and monthly time intervals through Using path analysis and structural equation statistical methods were evaluated and explored.The Results showed that the modeling of annual rainfall in the months of February, March, May, September and October based on the conditions of the model are 95% significant where as it wasn’t so far the months. Thus the October model with 61.8% of variance precipitation is as the best model of the year involving the seven variables as well as North Atlantic Oscillation Index(NAOI) compared to the other indicators.The evaluation of Meaningful assessment models show that the quality, type and amount of precipitation in the form of direct and indirect effects are different in different months. Generally, according to the indices of climate models it can be expressed that the indices of climate can be the representative of the centers and they are effective both directly and indirectly in terms of precipitation of Tabriz.

Dust storm is a meteorological phenomenon common in arid and semi-arid regions. Iran and particularly its west and south-west parts, periodically faces with the dust phenomenon and its problems. Westerlies are dominating current input to Iran. In regions that located western Iran, there are some deserts areas such as southern Iraq and Badiatosham, Robhgkhali, and Sahara. The geographical position of half west Iran and its proximity to the deserts has been caused frequent occurrence of dust with different intensities during a year. It seems the frequency of occurence of this phenomena and apatial expansion is more intense in recent years. The main aim of this study is Analysis of spatial and temporal variations and how the phenomenon of dust formation and identifies the origins and pathways of dusts entered in west of Iran. According to importance of this phenomenon and the problems that have been established in different areas, in this study, we attempted to first, to be done statistical analysis of the dust phenomenon, frequency of its occurrence in the past and present. And also recognized regions of source and the weather conditions, as well as through the combined methods diffusion patterns and dust storms routing have been analyzed. The data used covered a 30- year's period (1979-2008) and include: three hourly dust data in synoptic stations (8times in 24 hours), brightness temperature, MODIS 11-12µm bands, GDAS data, view field, velocity and direction of wind, temperature, geopotential height and omega in the atmosphere, are different in various levels. Software such as GrADS were used for prepared weather charts that were received from NCEP-NCAR with netCDF format. GDAS data for tracking the wind path in the HYSPLIT model and MODIS satellite images and using ENVI4.5 via NDDI equation was extracted dust phenomena over study area. Dust storms have great significance for the physical environment and the world's human inhabitants. The results indicate that Bushehr and Dezful stations have known as dust crisis centers in south-west Iran. Seasonally spring has the most frequency of dust occurrence and July, May and June presented the monthly most frequency. In other hand December has the lowest occurrence. During the day, the most occurrence of dust occurred between 9 am to 6 pm. in the warm period The Border regions between Syria and Iraq and in the cold period the West and South-West Iraq with East and Northern Saudi Arabia are two main dust sources for study area. Also, the main pathways for entered dust in study area are northwest - southeast and south – northern paths. According to the results of satellite images processing and model outputs, border region between Syria and Iraq and the northwest – southeast path considered as main source and pathways of dust for west region of Iran. In the warm period of year because of strengthening low pressure formed on Iraq and its integration with the low pressure moved to south and southwest Iran and finally place against high pressure of Mediterranean caused to the severe pressure gradient and high speed wind on Iraq and Syria. Due to the low humidity and dry characteristics of the region, the dust core is formed. Location of low pressure leads to severe suction of the air of adjacent deserts and moving this phenomenon with entrancing winds to Iran. At the end of cold period, dynamic processes are main factor of formation and transformation of this phenomenon. Formatting trough in middle level and following it formatting center of surface convergence and activity between two center of upper divergence and surface convergence caused extreme instability and lifted the air onto Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The Result of this mechanism formatting speed wind streams and if humidity be low, with respect to characteristics of these areas, dust core is formed.

Most of the citiesof arid an d semi-arid regions have been built on alluvial fans. These cities are subjected to flood. By intervening in stream natural trend, increasing impermeable surfaces, changing the slope, assembly and concentration of flood-ways, shortening the time of basin concentration and blocking flood-ways; through city constructions, urban development causes an increase in flood incident. Darab city has been built on Tang Katoye alluvial fan. One of the main problems of this city, urban floods and flooded streets in the rain and damage to the facility each year, the city will enter This research aims to investigate Darab city,s physical development and it,s effect on the flood occurrence. To do so, trend of Darab development was examined, using aerial photographs and the map of city land use in three stages(1335, 1363, 1390), then the relation of city physical development with increase of flood occurrence was defined using the method of American soil conservation (SCS). The results of the research show that from first to second stage, city,s physical development growth by four percent, while it would result in increase of surface run-off by 7 percent, and from second to third stage, it has had a growth of 33 percent, that resulted in 23 percent increase in surface run-off.

Introduction For the achieved of sustainable development goals, assessment of ecological capable is basic studied for the land use planning. The ecological capability is the sustainable protection system of urban ecology for the urban development and Protection system of urban ecology is integrated unit demand for urban development the impact Limited is the inappropriate of urban development. For the second stage studies of land preparation to evaluating the land potential ecological to land use and Determine priorities and the land use of between organize in the space planning, Mc Harg model is used for many years on a global scale with specific regional modifications in according the structure and calculation in the brief level to the detailed manual and computer method. Iran is becoming an increasingly urban place. Many cities in Iran are experiencing rapid urbanization, mostly in the form of unplanned development. Also West Azarbaijan province is not Exception of this option and increasingly is becoming in urban sites. The environment and human in certain problem has the province of regions. Hence requires ecological knowledge partnership as a strategic to protect and improve urban zones. In this regard of present study for Priority the province's urban centers used Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. 2- Methodology This research is Following Application of Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process in urban centers priority with ecological consideration. The method was descriptive and analytical, In this regard used of Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. 3– Discussion Theoretical studies were classified field criteria to assess the ecological for urban development and Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process used for the calculation final score of each criterion was formed the paired comparison fuzzy matrix and calculation was Fuzzy analytical hierarchy process can be prioritized in terms of urban ecology. Finally each of options score was obtained for sustainable urban development with the weight coefficient corresponding to the classical hierarchical analysis. This finally score was obtained of product final weight criteria in the final weight under criteria of each option. 4– Conclusion Results showed that the total score of cities in Khoy, Maku, Chaldoran, Poldasht and Chaypareh is more for the development. This prioritization is based on ecological characteristics of the urban environment and considering their compliance with the contents of the resource map is closer to reality. Research findings indicate that cities are developing in the first and second priority is not only because of ecological resources. But due to the strategic location of the transit of goods to neighboring countries like Turkey, Nakhchevan Republic, Iraq and that is having the infrastructure sector indices, benefiting from ecotourism, tourism and historical context.

Solar radiation is the source of earth system that has many effects on all earths system. Energy forces of all earth systems and ecosystems provide with solar energy. Solar energy calculate with different function and formula and in the most of them calculate for horizontal plane that this is a major problems in solar radiation calculation. In this paper use earth roughness effects on solar radiation absorption. For earth roughness using digital elevation model (DEM) to simulate mountains surface. Keywords: Total Radiation, Direct Radiation, Diffuse Radiation, Duration of direct Radiation, Anthropogenic Activity, Morphoradiation, Morph genic Evolution. Introduction Solar radiation is the main source of earth planet energy and is the main factor of climate component control. Solar radiation control earth surface temperature and then determine temporal and spatial variation and patterns of moisture and pressure. With regards to solar radiation role in all morphological systems solar radiation importance in geomorphology can better understand. Solar calculation for eqlid mountain range have been done. And related maps illustrated. 1- Directed solar radiation Calculation Directed solar radiation is the radiated energy that reaches to the earth surfaces in form of straight and direct rays. When the sun is above horizon line in the sky directed solar radiation occur and in the other time there isn’t any directed radiation. The sky divided to some sun sectors with half hour interval and the sun position in the sky calculated for each part and according to this sun height and azimuth directed solar radiation on the 3 dimensional surface calculated. 2- Diffuse solar radiation Calculation In the energy analysis not only need the directed solar energy but also need to diffuse solar energy. As physical definition if there isn’t any diffuse radiation in the environment the temperature difference between light and shadow surfaces will increase. Diffuse solar radiation calculated based on Uniform Overcast Sky (UOS) model. 3- Duration Direct Radiation calculation Duration of direct radiation calculated for the case study in one year. Latitude of the area that shows day length indirectly and earth morphology are the factors in this analysis. 4- Total Radiation Summation of directed radiation and diffuse radiation in all sun sectors is total Radiation. Results 1- Radiation effects on the natural systems and ecosystems 1-1- effects on vegetation cover More radiation intensity in the south and south west skirt of the eqlids mountain lead to temperature variation and then flow over earth systems. Increase in the rate of temperature lead to high evapotranspiration and low relative humidity that these factors can cause directly on the vegetation growth. In the area study high energy skirts has low plants density and low energy skirts has more density of plants. 1-2- effects on pedogenic systems Soil creation and developing has strong correlation with wet and thermal condition. In result effects solar radiation on the soil development are specified. In fact solar radiation can effect on thermal variation and variation of temperature effects on moisture and evaporation Changes. These changes determine direction of soil evaluation and creation. 1-3- Effects on hydrological systems Radiation balance in the Eqlid Mountains lead to thermal changes and then evaporation, infiltration and volume of runoff. Reliability coefficient of hydrological streams has difference in opposite’s skirts. 1-4- Effects on pre-glaciers and glaciers systems North and north east direction of this mountains mass gain less solar radiation and then has less temperature. More evidence of glacial cirque in this direction will accept this theory. Glaciers activity has more evidence in the west and north direction of this mountains skirts. 1-5- effects on the underground water Less temperature, more humidity, less evapotranspiration and more pre-glacial and glacial activity in the north and east north direction of area study help to discharge underground water more than opposite’s skirts direction. 1-6- Effects on micro and macro organisms More vegetation cover, fertile soils, surface and subsurface water resource all can has effect on micro and macro organisms. 1-7- effects on morphologic features All parameters and factors mentioned above can lead to geomorphological morphogenesis. In the north and north east skirts of this mountains there are some great alluvial fan whereas in the opposite’s skirts there isn’t such evidences. 2- Radiation effects on the anthropogenic activity All factors that listed above together can have strong effects on the settlements and human activates. There are more cities and village with density population in the north and east-north skirts of Eqlid mountains range as south and south-west of this mountain. Spatial arrangement and farming and agricultural fields and gardens configuration have the same trend as mountains skirt direction.

Financial and credit institutions, as an important economic pivot in distributing financial resources of the country, have an undeniable role in rural development, especially in agricultural sector. The objevtive of the present study is to identify factors effective of the present study is to identify factors effective in timely repayment of bank facilities by agricultural beneficiaries to the agricultural bank as the most major financial institution for paying agricultural credits to the villagers. The present study, based on its objective, has an opplied feature, and from its nature and method viewpoint, is an analytic-descriptive research. Data gathering is performed in documentary and field methods.The sample population under study,based on Kukran formula, was calculated as 395 agricultural beneficiaries and information was gathered by a questionnaire. To analyze the data. We used chi-square and logistic regression tasts in software SPSS. The sample of variables used in the research includes the beneficiaries, place of residence, their education level, crop insurance, repayment method, surface area of the land under cultivation, supplying agricultural water,etc. which regarding timely repayment of facilities were investigated. The results showed that, based on the chi-square test, there is a positive and significant relationship between variables used in the research and timely repayment of the agricultural bank facilities by the beneficiaries. The logistic analysis by step-by-step method showed that five variables including education level, family dimension, insurance, and paid in amount had an effect rate of 88.1percent on timely repayment of the facilities.