فصلنامه دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار
سال هشتم شماره 25 (بهار 1394)

This research is about Spillover Effect The On Contest Import & Export oriented industries. So the Import & Export oriented industries spillover from parallel markets (currency and gold) has been evaluated. For this purpose 2 methods, VAR and MGARCH were applied. Daily data (from october 2007 to August 2013) and examined using Eviews software. In aspect of model representation, this research is a development research and in aspect of method and nature is correlation. Results confirm spillover of Export oriented industries from currency. In other word main research hypothesis that explains Export oriented industries is affected from parallel markets, but This Results don’t confirm spillover of Export oriented industries from gold market, finally other Results don’t confirm spillover import oriented industries from currency and gold market. Side result of research demonstrates a positive and bilateral relation between currency and gold market in research period.

In the context of political economy, this study investigates relationship between political management and share price in 95 listed firms of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) during a seven-year period from 2006 to 2012.Using correlation method and multiple regression technique, We categorize companies in two groups as a theoretical view. First, companies which have directed by political management and second companies which have not political management. The results of this study indicates that there is a negative relation between political management and firms share price. Our result confirms political economic theory.

One of the most important decisions faced the firm's managers, is financing decision. Making this kind of decisions has important effects on stockholders’ risk and wealth. However recognizing the factors that affect these decisions has more importance. Many factors influence the financing decisions in the firms that can be classified into two groups: the factors related to firm structure such as agency problems, firm size, insolvency and factors which are related to the management behavioral characteristics such as conservatism, overconfidence. This paper is going to study the effect of one of the psychological factors (overconfidence) on firm's financing decisions. For this purpose we use a panel data of 157 firms from listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2006-2012 The results – based on fixed effect panel data method – show that there is no relation between managerial overconfidence and financing decisions. In addition, it has shown that there are significant relations between growth opportunity, firm size and insolvency risk with financing decisions.

Over 50 years of researching into capital structure provides different and sometimes conflicting theories in corporate finance. Among these theories, the trade-off theory with a long background; has been considered in many studies and still is being considered. One of the latest approaches of this theory is dynamic trade-off theory. Regarding to this approach, we have tried to identify the capital structure adjustment speed among the companies of Tehran stock exchange (TSE) in this thesis. Hence we employed a partial dynamic adjustment model with panel data and tried to estimate this speed with advanced econometric methods such as generalized method of moments. Our sample consists of 225 firms for 20 years (1992-2012). The results reveal that Iranian firms adjust quickly toward their target leverages (around 48% per year, according to instrumental variable method and 26% per year, according to generalized method of moments). These rapid adjustment speeds confirm the explanatory power of trade-off theory among Iranian firms in the analyzed period. The other purpose of this thesis is to analyze the relationship between product market competition (measured by Tobin’s Q) and the capital structure of Iranian firms. The results of generalized method of moments estimation, detect a positive relationship between the intensity of competition and leverage ratio, which supports the limited liability models.

Nowadays, due to various reasons, including population growth, economic growth and a sharp rise in demand and also the lack of government funding and higher productivity of the private sector, different methods are used to finance the project, that the BOT is the most common method.According to the high volume of investment and longtime range of this projects, in the absence of sufficient knowledge in relation to the financial risks of the project, using this method can has high stakes for the parties to the contract. This paper uses systematically integrated AHP-DEA methodology for risk assessment. The study projects, BOT, general risks such as currency fluctuations, fluctuations in interest rates, inflation, negligence, demand and price, the duration of the construction period and costs of construction period were identified. Also the main indicators related to these risks, including management of political, industrial, manpower, and were used for evaluation. Finally, these risks with using expert judgment were assessed, through questionnaires, and based on priority the risk prevention strategies for improvement were provided.

The balance of payments is one of the most important economic indicators for each country, because this variable is important information to the international situation and shows how the national economy conecte to other countries, foreign exchange and gold stock changes. In other words, the importance and reviews the balance of payments and thus the foreign exchange market is obvious because the majority of developing countries including Iran are suffering from the foreign trade imbalance due to its unpleasant effects on the domestic economy (production, inflation, etc.). Therefore, this study is trying to investigating the effect of implications and consequences of exchange rate shocks on the balance of payments. This study uses monthly time series data for the period 1385 Fravardin to 1392 Mordad and has been using Near-VECM model. Near-VECM which have higher explanatory power in comparing VECM base on the study result, analysis the effect of exchange rate volatility on The balance of payments, in addition to the exchange rate changes. According to the study findings, there were strong and significant short-run and long-run relationships between the research variables and also negative and significant short-run and long-run relationships between the foreign exchange volatility and the balance of payment. In addition, the coefficient of error correction term is equal to (-0.6) and it is negative and significant that shows the high speed adjustment process. Therefore, considering the research results, it is necessary that government executive economic policies to be designed and implemented with emphasis on reducing the volatility in the foreign exchange market.

This study investigates the relationship between EPS restatement size and stock return and P/E ratio from one hand and the difference between P/E ratios of two groups of companies with restated and without restated earnings. Restated earnings are an index determining the precision and accuracy of information presented during past periods. Investigating a sample of 70 registered companies in Tehran stock exchange and using regression method, we concluded that there is no significant relationship between EPS restatement size and P/E ratios, but there is a significant relationship between EPS restatement size and earnings return. We also concluded that there is significant difference between companies with and without EPS restatement.

Working capital finance and liquidity management in a low-cost, quick and easy way is concern of firms. Hence, financial institutions (including Islamic financial institutions) seeking instruments of providing services in this area. But the firm's liquidity and short-term financing and risk management instruments are difficulties to coordination and compliance with Shariah principles. That is why a credit on account service is rarely found in Islamic banks. This paper first reviews the credit on account services provided by Islamic banks. Then we review different methods proposed for the implementation of credit on account services with Shariah. In the end of paper based on firm's working capital process, we recommend a new solution through a new financial institution that is the "private deposit funds". In the new approach, instead of hedging working capital fluctuations through various short-term financing instruments, attempt to reduce liquidity risk by reducing the volatility of cash flows.