فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 125 (تابستان 1393)

This research is an attempt to study about the efficiency of different exchange-rate regimes based on reduces in loss function of central bank in a form of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)، considering an oil exporting economy such as Iran''s Economy. Thus، after adjusting a pattern، considering the structural characteristic of Iran’s Economy as oil exporting country and obtaining monetary rules under different exchange-rate regimes، the loss function of central bank will be compared. Central bank’s decision is based on interaction between interest and exchange rate. As a result، the research shows that، the optimal monetary rule under managed exchange-rate regime performs better than others. So، the decision making is based on the feedback of two political rules، one of them is for nominal interest rates and the other one is for changing in nominal value of exchange rate by central banks in small open Economics that can perform better than inflation targeting or fixed exchange rate models. The proposed model shows that how central bank can make a better political decision (low loss) by administrating two goals policies (interest and exchange rate).

This article is about the potential for legislstive changes to the bugett policy in Iranian legal system. Firstly three modeles of parliament amendment powers (Unfettered amendment powers، Constrained amendment powers، No amendment powers)، is studied and then in this conceptual framework and according to Constitution، some laws، Parliamentary procedure، procedures of Guardian Council، and principles of public budgeting، we explaine the Iran''s legislature (Majlis) amendment power to the figures and the provisions of the buget bill.

In this paper we have tried mention to some sort of thewell-known evolutionary modeling approaches in economic territory such as Multi Agent simulations، Evolutionary Computation and Evolutionary Game Theory. As it has been mentioned in the paper، in recent years، the number of Evolutionary contributions applied to Multi-Agent models increased remarkably. However until now there is no consensus for creation of a common rule for specification of analytical model in this regard. Besides taking advantage of Multi Agent models in analytical methods، an increasing usage of evolutionary algorithms to learn the behavior of population is clearly visible. These algorithms have been used primarily through applying of variation operators (Mutation and Crossover). Finally، the evolutionary Game Theory which studies the strategic behavior of players with constraint of bounded rationality has been presented. In evolutionary Game Theory، replicator dynamics are considered as a prominent type of dynamic models for evaluating the behavior of population. Other forms of dynamics such as best responses and imitation have been applied less than replicator dynamics.

Productivity improvement، as an efficient and effective way of using inputs،is the most important aim in any economy. The first step to improve each economic variable is the recognition of current situation. There is a lot of researchmeasuring TFP in macroeconomic level but all of them calculated effiecency and neglegted effectiveness. This study is based on institutional economic framework and attempt to provide indicators that measure the effectiveness as well. To do this، we propose some indices and present Iran national productivity situation using this indices through 1973- 2008. The indicators are:  Labor input indicators such as participation index and labor productivity which is calculated by using output measures like GNP، Welfare، Human development Index and Social capital.  Indicators related to crude oil inputs that are measurable based on the amount and values of crude oil extracted. In the case of crud oil، quantity based Indicatorsis increasind but value based indicators is decreasing. Quantity base indicators for natural gas have also a downward trend.  Indices of physical capital and human capital that are declining in the period.  Total factor productivity Index based on output of GDP (a measure of efficiency) is faced with limited growth (18% growth over 34 years)، but basedon the other output (a measure of effectiveness) is being reduced.

Risk taking is an important field in economic neuroscience. The purpose of present study is evaluation of risk taking in three conditions of high requirement، low requirement and no requirement statement and correlation of it to cultural values. In this cross sectional case study، 391 Iranian youth were evaluated with an implicit risk taking task and cultural dimensions questionnaire. Repetitive measure test of ANOVA performed for comparing three decision making conditions and Pearson test performed for evaluation of correlation between cultural values and risk taking. Findings show that in high requirement condition، participants had higher risky decision. Masculinity، tolerance of ambiguity and power of distance showed a negative significant correlation with risk taking. This correlation was not significant in requirement conditions. Based on findings، requirement is the main factor in risky decision making. Education about risk taking should be emphasis in region with low socioeconomic status.

If with expansionary (contractionary) fiscal policy، private consumption increases (decreases)، fiscal policy has Keynesian nature; else، it has non- Keynesian nature. If in certain period، sometimes fiscal policy has Keynesian effects and sometimes it has non- Keynesian effects، it will have non-linear effects. Since، there is not a paper about non- linear fiscal policy in IRAN، the purpose of this paper، is to test the non-linear effects of fiscal policy on private consumption in IRAN، during 1993:2-2010:4. So we use a Markov-switching model with FTP and TVTP approach. The results of the estimation of the Markov switching model with FTP present the existence of significant non-linarites in the effects of fiscal policy in IRAN. Also the Keynesian regime is an absorbing regime such that the probability of remaining in the non- Keynesian regime is just، 1%. Furthermore، Estimation results for the TVTP model show that we cannot find any strong evidence about the sources of these non-linarites.

The new theories on international economic indicate that the shocks from trade and financial integrations have different effects on business cycle synchronization. This paper investigates these effects on business cycle synchronization in ECO Countries، during 1993-2011 by introducing a new and dynamic cross correlation index. The results show that an increase of trade and financial transactions causes to strengthen business cycle synchronization in ECO Countries. Also، more industrial similarity between a pair of countries induces the higher bilateral synchronization.

Central governments finance local government''s expenditures in different ways. These different ways of financing emerge different types of intergovernmental grants that have special effect discussed in the literature. Non Earmarked grants، Earmarked grants، matching and none matching grants are some kinds of these grants. Central governments commonly have used these kinds of grants to access specific target including equity، efficiency and so on that every target need to be accessed by a specific type of transfers. So designing transfers system is an important thing in intergovernmental financing literature. In this paper typology of central government transaction to local government is studied. Then the laws related to these kinds of transaction have been studied. In one hand the results show in some laws of transfers to municipality، there is no appropriation between target and ways of transfer. in the other hand the structure of allocation disturbs appropriation between other laws and targets not to achieving goals.