فصلنامه پژوهشهای اقتصادی (رشد و توسعه پایدار)
سال پانزدهم شماره 2 (تابستان 1394)

The consumption expenditure is a key element of macroeconomic analyses، which accounts for considerable share of aggregate demand in Iran. Any effort for forecasting the future consumption trend is of special importance for policy-makers. In this paper، we specify a consumption model relying on theoretical basics in order to obtain desirable forecasts. On the basis of Duesenberry and Friedman consumption theories، we use genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to simulate Iranians consumption during 1973-2009. Then we select the superior model in terms of prediction power criteria and forecast consumption until 2025. According to the results، the PSO algorithm is efficient and accurate in forecasting consumption; and consumption behavior of Iranians is consistent with Duesenberry theory. In addition، the simulations by exponential consumption model indicate increasing average propensity to consume until 2025.

In this study، to find the relationship between the government budget deficit and trade balance in Iran، a structural macro-econometric model is set up. In the model، government consumption expenditure increased by 20 percent annually during 2001-2010، so the government budget deficit increased relative to the baseline. The financing methods of budget deficit and relevant effects on trade balance were analyzed in 4 options. The results indicate that government budget deficit increases by adopting expansionary fiscal policy in all options. If the budget deficit is financed by borrowing from the central bank (the first option)، it will raise the monetary base and finally worsen the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If the budget deficit is financed by selling participation bonds to the public (the second option)، it will reduce aggregate demand and finally improve the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If direct taxes and government spending are increased by the same amount (the third option)، private consumption will decrease; and trade balance and non-oil trade balance will be deteriorated compared to the baseline. Finally، if the budget deficit is financed by the withdrawal of foreign currency reserves (the fourth option)، oil revenues will increase، as a result the trade balance will be improved and the non-oil trade balance will be exacerbated compared to the baseline.

This study investigates the time-varying correlations among oil and coin prices، and exchange rate in Iran. Since investment is a key factor in economic growth and development، so the necessary funds should be provided and directed towards manufacturing and industrial sectors. In addition، understanding the relationships among financial variables allows to the investor to reduce overall portfolio risk without harming to the return on investment. In this paper we use monthly data of the oil and coin prices، and exchange rate in Iran over the period 1991:3 to 2011:2 and examine time-varying correlations using Dynamic Conditional Correlation - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) approach by G@RCH6 software. The analyses made in milieu of the world financial crisis (2008) show that the conditional correlations among assets are time-varying and world financial crisis causes significant changes in dynamic relationships among assets under study in Iran.