فصلنامه برنامه ریزی و بودجه
پیاپی 126 (پاییز 1393)

Recently instability in Iranian exchange market، particularly after imposing huge economic sanctions has generated a lot interest among economist and academicians to investigate driving force of this instability. This paper estimates a new nonlinear exchange market pressure for Iran’s economy using MSMH (2) -VAR (2) method. The empirical results identify the two episodes of exchange market pressure in the Iran and confirm the statistical superiority of the nonlinear regime-switching model over linear model versions in understanding exchange market pressure. Our findings indicate that staying in the depreciation episode is more persistent than staying in appreciate episode. Our results also show that the fluctuation in “Iranian oil Revenues has crucial role in determining exchange market pressure. Declining in the oil revenue is accomplished by a regime transition from appreciation to depreciation exchange rate pressures. In the contrast، a higher appreciation regime is characterized a higher increase in oil revenues and a higher decline in exchange rate changes.

Despite the several researches that focus on investigating the minimum wage effect on the important economic variables، examining the effect of this variable on the labor supply and rate of labor’s participation in labor market has received less attention. The rate of women’s participation in Iran labor market has had a remarkable decrease in the recent years. On the other hand، real minimum wage rate has partially increased a little during the last 10 years. In this survey we investigate the participation behavior of Iranian urban and rural women’s labor in the framework of a Neoclassical Allocation Theory based on the individual utility maximization approach by means of panel data model and income-expenditure raw data of rural and urban families for the period 1385-1390. The results show that age، education and marriage have influenced participation of urban and rural women in labor market positively and labor income of urban and rural women has a negative effect on the rate of their participation in labor market. Moreover، family dimension variable doesn’t have a meaningful effect on the supply of urban and rural women labor. With respect to the relationship of participation behavior of women labor with of minimum wage، despite the positive impact of increasing the minimum wage on labor supply، marginal effect of minimum wage on urban labor participation of women differs from the respective effect on rural one – that this effect on urban labor participation of women is greater.

Inflation is one of the most important problems in Iran throughout last decades، and the historical studies of inflation trend in Iran indicate persistence of this variable. Inflation persistence refers to the tendency of inflation to converge slowly towards its long-run measure (equilibrium inflation) in response to various economic shocks. The historical measuring of inflation persistence has estimated by the univariate autoregressive timeseries models and include the sum of autoregressive coefficients to estimate persistence. In this paper we implement this approach and then another non-parametric approach to measure inflation persistence for the period 1338- 1390 and some sub-period، covering a structural break in 1357. The results show a remarkable persistence of inflation in years after Revolution، especially for the period ending in 1374; furthermore، the results indicate that in periods before structural break in 1357 (The advent of Revolution)، there is no obvious inflation persistence

The applied economic models in this study reveal if policy makers aren’t simultaneously able to eradicate inflation and unemployment; they have first to solve the problem of unemployment and then solve the problem of inflation. Since this model obviously reveal that unemployment has more destructive effects on than inflation. It must be mentioned that، the importance of Institutional variables such as irregular industrialization، increasing urbanization، and quantity and quality of societies’ literacy is not ignorable. In this sense، they must be amended and improved in short terms and long terms plans. As a result they have intensive effects on crimes. On the other hand، since these components characterized as Institutional elements; the process of their changing is so gradual and progressive and usually short terms and sectional solutions is not applied for them.

The main purpose of this article is to evaluate the effect of education on Iran’s economic growth during 1338-89 within the framework of endogenous growth theory، focusing on three key issues: exploring the scope and main aspects of education and growth with their theoretical and technical requirements، a critical evaluation of Iranian empirical research dominated by crucial problems and challenges، and suggesting an appropriate growth model. The effects of some theoretical and methodological challenges dominating the empirics of the relationship between education and economic growth are examined، using data from the central bank and Statistical Center of Iran sources. We found that (1) the scope of education and growth is very wide including many issues and aspects nonetheless the empirics of education and growth involving a very narrow line and aspect، (2) the estimates of the determinants of economic growth are sensitive to the type of growth model، variable measurements and econometric problems mostly ignored in the previous research، (3) among the 11 growth models estimated، only one model provides the best and most justifiable estimates of the determinants - Model 6 of Table 5; based on the results of the model physical capital، education، population growth، depreciation rate and technological changes significantly affect Iran’s steady-state economic growth، which are consistent with the main stream of empirical findings and theoretical underpinnings. In particular it is found that the effect of education on growth is twice as the effect of physical capital (i. e.، 0. 83 in comparison with 0. 52)، which clearly shows the importance of educational investment

Institutions are combination of habits، moral rules، customs as well as national laws. They develop the gam rules of society. These rules influence different aspect of individual and group life and also increase and decrease society’s dimensions. One of the most important of institutional effect could be researched in development process on economic sectors. According to its place، this paper attained some important aspect of agricultural development include technology adoption and property rights and try to explain their relationships. The results indicated that sequence and improvement of institutions is important factor on improvement of agricultural development. So، recognition، make and extension of true institutions are appropriate to achieve high level of development. Also، fundamental like this paper can help to solution problems and policy making and programming in macro levels of economic.

Resistive economy as the ability of societies in adaptability and versatility in the face of shocks is viewed based on the institutional literature as an “Adaptive Efficiency” - that the amount of the effectiveness depends on the flexibility of the institutional matrix of the society. The power structure is one of the most important factors in the institutional structure of societies، and its role in absorbing tensions and organizing interactions is of great importance. Accordingly، the present paper aims to answer the question “What structure of power is needed to be designed to achieve resistive economy pattern and to promote its dimensions?” Hence، the researcher، in a comparative analysis between neoclassical and institutional approaches considering the intellectual foundations of these two approaches in the field of power، reveals that in the neoclassical approach، the concept of power، according to the theory of “zero participation” derived from the central postulate of individualism and one-sided view of the individual to structure، is featured only in a central authority with top-down causal relationships. Whereas through surveying the above intellectual foundations in light of the institutional approach and by proposing the individual-structure interactive attitude، it is revealed that according to the Elinor Ostrom’s theory of multi-center systems، embedding and applying institutions and collective actions with bottomup causal relationships can provide important aspects of overall policies of resistive economy (such as maximizing the common participation in economic activities by facilitating and encouraging collective cooperation، to make savings in public expenditure of the country، making the economy healthy and preventing corrupt activities).

The purpose of this study is investigating the effect of tax avoidance on the cost of equity firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange. The study sample consists of 75 Firms listed in Tehran stock Exchange during the 2001 to 2010. Effective tax rate is used as measurement of tax avoidance. In order to testing the research hypothesizes، Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS) and Panel Data have been used. The results showed that tax avoidance reduce cost of equity. In other word، firms by investing the cash from of tax avoidance، will increase future cash flow and thereby decrease cost of equity. It was expected that negative relationship between tax avoidance and cost of equity is stronger for firms with strong external monitoring and higher growth opportunities. But the results indicate that growth opportunities and institutional ownership don’t have significant effect on the relationship between tax avoidance and cost of equity.