فهرست مطالب

اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی - سال بیست و نهم شماره 2 (تابستان 1394)
  • سال بیست و نهم شماره 2 (تابستان 1394)
  • تاریخ انتشار: 1394/06/12
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
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  • محسن جمالی پور احمد رضا شاهپوری محمد قربانی صفحات 107-115
    یکی از چالش های اساسی در سال های اخیر، مسئله تغییر کاربری اراضی، جلوگیری از تخریب و اهمیت حفظ کاربری اراضی می باشد. بر همین اساس، عوامل موثر بر تغییر کاربری اراضی با استفاده از اطلاعات پیمایشی 60 بهره بردار کشاورزی شهرستان تنکابن و بهره گیری از الگوی دومرحله ای توبیت- هکمن در سال 1391 بررسی شد. نتایج برآورد الگوی پروبیت نشان داد که سطح سواد، تجربه، تعداد قطعات زمین باغی، سطح زیر کشت مرکبات و کیوی، قیمت محصول باغی (کیوی)، سطح زیر کشت زراعی و قیمت زمین زراعی با اثر مثبت و متغیرهای اندازه خانوار، قیمت زمین باغی، قیمت محصول باغی (مرکبات)، تعداد قطعات زمین زراعی، قیمت محصول زراعی، رضایت از نهادهای حمایتی و بیمه باغی و زراعی با اثر منفی بر اخذ تصمیم به تغییر کاربری اراضی از زراعی به باغی، نقش دارند. همچنین نتایج برازش الگوی مرحله دوم توبیت بیانگر تاثیر مثبت تعداد قطعات زمین باغی، سطح زیر کشت مرکبات و کیوی، قیمت محصول باغی (مرکبات)، تعداد قطعات زمین زراعی، سطح زیر کشت زمین زراعی، قیمت زمین زراعی و بیمه باغی و زراعی و تاثیر منفی متغیرهای اندازه خانواده، سطح سواد، تجربه، قیمت زمین باغی، قیمت محصول باغی (کیوی)، قیمت محصول زراعی و رضایت از نهادهای حمایتی بر میزان اقدام به تغییر کاربری اراضی می باشد. با توجه به یافته ها، ایجاد شبکه بیمه ای گسترده برای پوشش کشاورزان خرده پا، جلوگیری از ایجاد نوسان های قیمتی محصولات باغی و زراعی، توجه جدی به تولیدات زراعی به عنوان محصولات استراتژیک و حمایت از بهره برداران در این بخش در قالب بسته سیاستی به برنامه ریزان این عرصه پیشنهاد شد.
    کلیدواژگان: اثر نهایی، الگوی توبیت، تغییر کاربری، هکمن
  • حسین محمدی حسین روحانی صفحات 116-125
    این پژوهش با هدف آگاهی از نوع اشتغال دانش آموختگان علمی کاربردی کشاورزی و تحلیل عوامل موثر برآن انجام شده است. متغیر وابسته تحقیق، نوع اشتغال است که شامل پنج طبقه: مشاغل مرتبط دولتی، غیر مرتبط دولتی، مرتبط خصوصی، غیر مرتبط خصوصی و جویای کار است. متغیرهای مستقل شامل جنسیت، سهمیه پذیرش در دانشگاه، میزان علاقه مندی به رشته تحصیلی، میزان هدایت شغلی در دوران تحصیل، رضایت از رشته تحصیلی، ارزیابی مهارت های حرفه ای و آموزشی کسب شده در دانشگاه، ارزیابی فرهنگ کار در جامعه و ارزیابی از نداشتن سرمایه می باشد. جامعه آماری کلیه دانش آموختگان دانشگاه علمی کاربردی کشاورزی و نمونه مورد نظر تعداد 167 نفر از دانش آموختگان مرکز آموزش علمی کاربردی جهادکشاورزی مشهد می باشند که در سال1391 جهت دریافت مدرک تحصیلی مراجعه کرده اند. ابزار جمع آوری اطلاعات پرسشنامه و از مدل پروبیت چند گانه در برآورد مدل های رگرسیونی و تحلیل نتایج استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که 4/23 درصد دانش آموختگان در مشاغل دولتی و 1/34 درصد در بخش خصوصی مشغول به کار می باشند و مابقی 5/42 درصد دانش آموختگان نیز جویای کار هستند. متغیرهای جنسیت، میزان علاقه مندی در انتخاب رشته تحصیلی، میزان رضایت از رشته تحصیلی، ارزیابی از نقش سرمایه روی اشتغال و میزان مهارت های حرفه ای و آموزشی در زمان تحصیل از متغیرهای مهم و اثر گذار بر نوع اشتغال فارغ التحصیلان کشاورزی می باشند. ارائه تسهیلات با کارمزد پایین، جذب هدفمند دانشجویان مراکز، افزایش آگاهی و ارائه اطلاعات در زمان انتخاب رشته و کاربردی کردن آموزش ها در کنار تقویت مهارت های علمی و عملی از جمله راهکارهای افزایش اشتغال و ارزش افزوده در این بخش می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: اشتغال، پروبیت چندگانه، دانش آموختگان کشاورزی، دانشگاه علمی کاربردی
  • مهدی چرمچیان لنگرودی صفحات 126-138
    کشاورزی به علت وابستگی شدید به طبیعت، فعالیتی پرخطر و همراه با ریسک به حساب می آید. پژوهش حاضر با هدف شناسایی عوامل موثر در مدیریت ریسک در بین زنان برنجکار شهرستان ساری انجام شد. به این ترتیب جامعه آماری تحقیق 1677نفر از زنان تولیدکننده برنج شهرستان ساری می باشند و نمونه گیری تصادفی طبقه ای در این مطالعه به کاربرده شد و 248 نفراز زنان برنجکار انتخاب شدند. روش شناسی این پژوهش، ترکیبی از روش های کمی و توصیفی- استنباطی بود و برای تجزیه تحلیل داده ها از نرم افزارهای SPSS 16 و LISRELو از روش های آمار توصیفی و استنباطی استفاده گردید. پس از تایید روایی ابزار پژوهش از طریق پانل متخصصان، به منظور تعیین پایایی، از ضریب کرونباخ آلفا و تتای ترتیبی استفاده شد. کرونباخ آلفا و تتای ترتیبی سوالات پرسشنامه به ترتیب 84/0 و 89/0 به دست آمد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که با توجه به تاثیر منابع دریافت اطلاعات برمیزان به کارگیری از روش های مدیریت ریسک، توصیه می شود به منابع دریافت اطلاعات مانند اینترنت، مدیریت و مرکز خدمات جهاد کشاورزی، شرکت در کلاس های آموزشی کشاورزی، روزنامه، کتاب و نشریه های آموزشی و ارتباط با کارشناسان و متخصصان کشاورزی توجه بیشتری گردد.
    کلیدواژگان: زنان برنجکار، ساری، مدیریت ریسک، منابع دریافت اطلاعات
  • عطیه صندوقی امیر مظفر امینی علی یوسفی صفحات 139-149
    در این بررسی به منظور ارزیابی عوامل موثر بر انتخاب مصرف کنندگان شهر اصفهان برای خیار معمولی، سالم و ارگانیک از روش انتخاب تجربی و مدل لاجیت چند گانه استفاده گردید. در مدل انتخاب تجربی جهت طراحی سناریو از روش رتبه بندی مشروط استفاده شد. داده ها و اطلاعات مورد نیاز از طریق پیمایش های میدانی، با طراحی و تکمیل پرسش نامه پژوهش گر ساخته به روش نمونه گیری انتساب متناسب طبقه ای از 230 مصرف کننده در سال 1392 جمع آوری شد که به منظور آزمون پایایی ابزار پژوهش، تعداد 30 پرسشنامه برای انجام آزمون مقدماتی در منطقه مورد مطالعه توزیع گردید و با میانگین آلفای کرونباخ 74/0 به دست آمده، اعتبار آن تایید شد. اولویت بندی ترجیحات مصرف کنندگان نشان می دهد که به ترتیب 1/77 درصد محصول سالم، 4/12 درصد محصول ارگانیک و 1/10 درصد محصول معمولی را اولویت نخست انتخاب خود می دانند. نتایج حاصل از مدل رگرسیونی نشان داد که عواملی چون درآمد، اطلاع از ویژگی های محصولات سالم، اهمیت به سلامتی و حفظ محیط محیط زیست و وجود فرد سالمند و بیمار در خانواده، اثر مثبت و معنادار بر انتخاب محصول سالم و ارگانیک دارند. باارتقاء سطح آگاهی مصرف کنندگان از مزایای مصرف محصولات سالم و همچنین تغییر نگرش آنان در زمینه اهمیت حفظ سلامتی شان می توان در جهت بهبود سلامت جامعه و محیط زیست گام برداشت.
    کلیدواژگان: اصفهان، ترجیحات مصرف کنندگان، رتبه بندی مشروط، محصول سالم و ارگانیک، مدل لاجیت چند گانه
  • حمید بلالی مهدی منتشلو صفحات 150-158
    پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی تاثیر سیاست آزادسازی قیمت انرژی بر وضعیت شاخص های اقتصادی و زیست محیطی پایداری کشاورزی با بهره گیری از رهیافت تعادل جزئی در قالب برنامه ریزی ریاضی می باشد. جامعه آماری تحقیق شامل مزارع آبی واقع در شهرستان قروه بوده و داده ها و اطلاعات موردنیاز از طریق تنظیم پرسشنامه و تکمیل آن توسط کشاورزان منطقه مورد مطالعه در سال زراعی 92-1391 و همچنین مراجعه به سازمان ها و نهادهای مربوطه تهیه گردید. نتایج حاصل از اجرای مدل، نشان می دهد که سیاست کاهش یارانه انرژی در بخش کشاورزی منطقه مورد مطالعه باعث کاهش شاخص اقتصادی بازده ناخالص حاصل از فعالیت های کشاورزی می گردد. همچنین بر اساس یافته های تحقیق با افزایش قیمت انرژی به سمت واقعی تر شدن قیمت آن، مصرف حامل های انرژی به طور معنی داری کاهش و شاخص های زیست محیطی شامل میزان کل آب مصرفی در واحد سطح و نهاده های شیمیایی شامل مصرف کودهای ازته و پتاس به ازای واحد سطح در منطقه مورد مطالعه کاهش می یابد.
    کلیدواژگان: برنامه ریزی ریاضی، پایداری کشاورزی، تعادل جزئی، یارانه انرژی
  • سید جمیل محمدی سید علی حسینی یکانی حامد قادرزاده صفحات 159-168
    در مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از رویکرد تحلیل پوششی داده ها ابتدا به برآورد مقادیر ابرکارایی و رتبه بندی واحدهای صنعتی پرورش گاو شیری در شهرستان های سقز و دیواندره پرداخته شد. سپس به منظور اطمینان از نااریب بودن نمرات ابرکارآیی به دست آمده، با استفاده از مدل اصلاح شده بنکر و گیفورد، با نرمال سازی و حذف برخی از واحدهای پرت بر اساس سطوح از پیش تعیین شده، نمرات کارایی مجددا به روش معمولی محاسبه و نتایج به دست آمده با هم مقایسه شدند. بدین منظور، اطلاعات موردنیاز جهت محاسبه کارایی، به صورت میدانی و با مصاحبه و تکمیل پرسشنامه از کل 19 واحد فعال برای سال 1392 جمع آوری شد. نتایج نشان داد، در مجموع حدود 58 درصد از گاوداری های شیری منطقه مورد مطالعه، ناکارا بوده وحدود 42 درصد از کل واحدها ابرکارایی کمتر از سطح میانگین را کسب کردند. کارایی واحدها با استفاده از مدل ابرکارایی و کارایی معمولی در تحلیل پوششی داده ها با همدیگر مقایسه و واحدهای ناکارا، نمرات کارایی و ابرکارایی یکسانی گرفتند و واحدهای کارایی که نمره ابرکارایی آن ها بزرگ تر و مساوی یک شده بود، در روش معمولی بر روی تابع تولید مرزی قرار گرفتند. به منظور تعیین حساسیت نتایج نسبت به حذف واحدهای پرت، سه سطح مختلف به عنوان مبنا برای شناسایی واحدهای پرت در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج مورد بررسی نشان داد که ضریب همبستگی، تنها در سطح 1 ≤پایین بوده که نشان می دهد، وجود واحدهای پرت بر روی نمرات کارایی تاثیرگذار می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: ابرکارایی، تحلیل پوششی داده ها، شهرستان های سقز و دیواندره، گاوداری های شیری، واحدهای پرت
  • حسام ایرجی منصور زیبایی فاطمه نصرنیا صفحات 169-180
    خشکسالی از پیچیده ترین و ناشناخته ترین بلایای طبیعی است. استان فارس از لحاظ اثرات محیطی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی نسبت به خشکسالی بسیار آسیب پذیر است. هدف این مطالعه شناسایی و سنجش آسیب پذیری گندم کاران شمال استان فارس نسبت به خشکسالی بود که در سه بخش سازمان دهی شد. اولین روش، آسیب پذیری قبل از خشکسالی را بر اساس توزیعات درآمدی تخمین زده شده اندازه گرفت و دیگری آسیب پذیری بعد از خشکسالی را با توجه به وضعیت دارایی خانوار و استراتژی های مقابله با خشکسالی سال 1390، شناسایی کرد. بخش آخر، الگوهای آسیب پذیری را بر اساس آنالیز خوشه ای و داده کاوی تعیین کرد. یک نمونه متشکل از 203 کشاورز در سه دشت آسپاس، نمدان و سده برای مصاحبه و جمع آوری داده های لازم در سطح مزرعه برای دو سال (1391 و 1390) انتخاب شد. یافته های مطالعه نشان داد در بعد فنی دسترسی به منابع آب، در بعد اقصادی میزان سرمایه و در بعد اجتماعی اتحاد اهالی مهم ترین عوامل اثر گذار در میزان آسیب پذیری کشاورزان محسوب می شود. دشت های سده و نمدان به ترتیب بیشترین و کمترین مقدار آسیب پذیری در ابعاد اقتصادی و فنی و در بعد اجتماعی آسپاس آسیب پذیرترین و سده کمترین میزان آسیب پذیری را به خود اختصاص دادند. همچنین با در نظر گرفتن بعدهای فنی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی آسیب پذیری، این مطالعه هفت الگوی متمایز و مستقل آسیب پذیری را استخراج کرد. یافته های مطالعه می توانند به سیاست گذاران برای انتقال از مدیریت بحران به مدیریت ریسک و طراحی برنامه های مناسب در زیر منطقه یا در سطح مزرعه به جای سطح ملی و منطقه یاری کند.
    کلیدواژگان: آسیب پذیری اجتماعی، آسیب پذیری اقتصادی، آسیب پذیری فنی، الگوهای آسیب پذیری، خشکسالی
  • زهرا گلریز ضیائی رضا مقدسی سعید یزدانی صفحات 181-191
    مطالعه حاضر به تعریف و برآورد شاخص رضایت مشتری بازارهای ارزاق عمومی شهرداری مشهد می پردازد. بدین منظور پس از تعریف مدل به روش مدل سازی معادلات ساختاری از روش های حداقل مربعات جزئی و حداکثر آنتروپی تعمیم یافته برای برآورد مدل تعریف شده استفاده می کند. پس از برآورد، نتایج دو روش برای انتخاب روش برتر با استفاده از معیار میانگین مربع خطاها با یکدیگر مقایسه می شوند. داده های مورد استفاده در این تحقیق به صورت پیمایشی و بر مبنای روش نمونه گیری روی هدف از 367 نفر از مشتریان 16 بازار ارزاق عمومی موجود در شهر مشهد جمع آوری گردید. نتایج تحقیق نشان دهنده برتری روش حداقل مربعات جزئی بر روش حداکثر آنتروپی می باشد و ارزش ادراکی و تصویر ادراکی را به عنوان عوامل موثر بر رضایت مشتری و تعریف و تمجید از بازار را به عنوان مهم ترین نتیجه وفاداری مشتری به بازار معرفی نموده و بر این اساس نظارت بیشتر بر سطح قیمت های این بازارها و توجه به فاکتورهایی هم چون نظافت، دکوراسیون و ایجاد جو مطلوب و لذت بخش در فروشگاه ها را برای بهبود وضعیت این دو متغیر پیشنهاد می کند.
    کلیدواژگان: حداکثر آنتروپی تعمیم یافته، حداقل مربعات جزئی، شاخص رضایت مشتری
  • هادی مومنی هلالی امیر احمدپور صفحات 192-203
    تحقیق حاضر از نوع تحقیقات پیمایشی و کاربردی است که در سال 1393 در استان مازندران انجام شده است. هدف تحقیق حاضر ارزیابی و شناسایی مناسب ترین نظام بهره برداری جهت پایداری فعالیت های زراعی در استان مازندران می باشد. جامعه آماری تحقیق حاضر در برگیرنده کلیه متخصصانی است که در زمینه ابعاد پایداری و نظام های بهره برداری دارای اطلاعات کافی و تسط و درک عمیقی از موضوع مورد مطالعه هستند که از طریق نمونه گیری غیراحتمالی یا هدفمند و روش گلوله برفی، تعداد 15 نفر شناسایی و مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. برای جمع آوری داده ها از پرسشنامه استفاده شد. برای تعیین روایی ظاهری و محتوایی از نظرات اساتید و متخصصان فن و برای سنجش پایایی از نرخ ناسازگاری استفاده گردید. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از نرم افزار اکسپرت چویس 2000 بهره گرفته شد. یافته های پژوهش نشان داد که بر اساس چهار معیار پایداری از جمله اکولوژیکی و سیاستی (به عنوان مهم ترین معیارهای پایداری فعالیت های زراعی طبق تحقیق)، نظام بهره برداری تجاری در اولویت است. علاوه بر این، نتایج نهایی نشان داد که با تلفیق وزن های نسبی معیارها، زیرمعیارها و گزیدارها، مناسب ترین نظام بهره برداری در راستای بهبود پایداری فعالیت های زراعی در منطقه، نظام بهره برداری تجاری می باشد. همچنین، نظام بهره برداری تعاونی با اختلاف کمی نسبت به نظام بهره برداری تجاری و با اختلاف نسبتا زیادی با نظام بهره برداری دهقانی در اولویت دوم قرار دارد. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع پایداری به لحاظ توسعه فعالیت های زراعی در منطقه مذکور پیشنهاد می گردد، مسئولین مربوطه با مد نظر قرار دادن نتایج حاصله، برنامه ریزی و اقدامات لازم جهت فراهم نمودن سازوکارهای مناسب جهت متشکل نمودن فعالیت های زراعی در غالب نظام های بهره برداری تجاری و تعاونی را فراهم نمایند.
    کلیدواژگان: فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی، کشاورزی پایدار، نظام بهره برداری
  • محمد نبی شهیکی تاش اسمعیل قلی پور بلسی اعظم محمدزاده صفحات 204-215
    صنایع فرآوری مواد غذایی از مهم ترین گروه های صنعتی کشورهای درحال توسعه می باشد که نقش موثری در توسعه اقتصادی این نوع کشورها بازی می کند. این مقاله به بررسی ساختار بازار، درجه قدرت بازاری و ضریب تبانی صنایع غذایی و آشامیدنی ایران براساس روش سازمان صنعتی نوین (NEIO) و با رویکرد برسناهان و لئو (12) می پردازد. برای این منظور از داده های کد چهار رقمی ISIC طی سال های 1390- 1374 برای بررسی 19 صنعت استفاده می شود. علاوه بر این با توجه به شاخص هرفیندال- هیرشمن نیز به بررسی ساختار بازار در صنعت مورد نظر پرداخته شده است.نتایج نشان می دهد که شرایط غیر رقابتی برای 18 صنعت معنادار شده است. درجه قدرت بازاری بین 43/0 و 24/2 است. 12 صنعت دارای بازار انحصار چندجانبه و تولید روغن و چربی دارای بازار انحصار نزدیک به کامل است.تغییرات حدسی برای دو صنعت آرد و غلات و حبوبات و چای سازی بسیار بالا و به ترتیب برابر با 24/2 و 14/2 است. به طور خلاصه، صنایع با درجه بالای تبانی شامل، عمل آوری و حفاظت میوه، تولید قند و شکر، نانوایی، کشتار دام و طیور می شود. صنایع با درجه تبانی پایین شامل: تولید روغن و چربی حیوانی و نباتی، چای سازی، تولید ماتاء و ماء الشعیر می شود. صنایع پیرو از الگوی کورنو شامل صنعت چای سازی می شود. صنایع با ضریب تبانی بین 2 تا 5 شامل، عمل آوری و حفاظت ماهی، تولید فرآورده های لبنی، تولید خوراک دام، تولید قند و شکر، نانوایی،نان شیرینی و بیسکویت، نوشابه های الکلی گازدار می شود و در نهایت در صنعت درجه بندی خرما الگوی رقابتی به چشم می خورد.بنابراین توصیه می شود ساختار و روابط بین بنگاه ها در بخش هایی که ضریب تبانی بالایی دارند به خوبی مورد بررسی قرار گیرد و در صورت لزوم از ابزار نظارتی و در بعضی موارد و موقعیت های جغرافیایی، با توجه به تمرکز بنگاه ها در آن منطقه به کنترل مستقیم از سوی شورای رقابت اقدام گردد.
    کلیدواژگان: انحصار چندجانبه، صنعت، قدرت بازاری، کشش تغییرات حدسی
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  • M. Jamalipour, A.R. Shahpouri, M. Ghorbani Pages 107-115
    Introduction
    Land use in the overall concept is said to be the type of using land in the current situation which contains all users in different sectors of agriculture، natural resources and the industry. Protecting land use is as follows: “Prevent the change of application of certain lands by their owners، if their change has negative natural، economic، political، cultural، or scientific effects”. Change of application of land is certainly the most important factor that will affect the protection of natural ecosystems. Thus، it is imperative to consider the importance of land use change from the perspective of environmental، economic، social and finally، its important aspects such as food security and the lack of planning for its realization and the changes that occur in these sectors. Factors affecting the development of land use change should be considered to finally be able to apply appropriate policies and strategic principles to reduce its negative effects.
    Materials And Methods
    Thestudy’s data and information were obtained by simple random sampling and through interviews and 60 questionnaires that were completed by farmers and rice farmers of Tonekabon city that all or part of their land use had been changed and the datahadbeen collected in 2012. For investigating the factors affecting agricultural land use changes، the Tobit model of Heckman’s two-step was used. In this paper، the relationship between the factors that influence decision to change land use and actions to land use change were investigated. The variables including family size، literacy، experience، number of garden plots، citrus cultivation، kiwi cultivation، the price per square meter of garden land، the price per kilograms of horticultural crops (citrus)، the price per kilograms of horticultural products (kiwi)، number of pieces of agricultural land، cultivated level، the price per kilograms of crop، the price per square meter of agricultural land، satisfaction of supporting institutions and garden and agricultural insurance were used in this study.
    Results And Discussion
    The estimated Probit model’s marginal effects showed that the variables of literacy، experience، citrus and kiwi cultivation، number of garden plots، the price per kilograms of horticultural products (kiwi)، cultivated level، and the price per square meter of agricultural land have been positive signs that indicate a positive impact of these variables on the decision to change the use of land. The estimated linear regression model showed that the variables of number of garden plots، citrus cultivation، kiwi cultivation، the price per kilograms of horticultural crops (citrus)، number of pieces of agricultural land، cultivated level and garden and agricultural insurance have been positive signs that indicate the positive impact of these variables on the action to change the use of land. Due to significant coefficients of the quantitative variables that influence the rate of change in land use، cultivation of citrus fruits is dedicated to most positive effects. As well، satisfaction of supporting institutions also has the most negative role as a dummy variable.
    Conclusion
    The issues of land use change، prevention of land destruction and preservation of land، are of the main challenges in recent years. In this paper، we investigated the factors affecting change in land use by using a survey of 60 farmers in Tonekabon and the two-step Tobit model (Heckman) in 2012. The result of the Probit model showed that literacy levels، experience، number ofhorticulturalland pieces، area of citrusandkiwi،the price ofhorticultural products (kiwi)، crop area and price ofland hada positive effect andhouseholdsize، price ofhorticultural land، price ofhorticultural products (citrus)، number ofagricultural land price، and averageprice ofcrop، the satisfaction level of support in situations، horticultural and agricultural insurance had negative effects on thedecisionofchanging agriculturallandtohorticultural. Also، the results of the second stage Tobit regressi on model showed that the number of horticulturalland price، area of kiwi and citrus، price of horticultural products (citrus)، pieces of agricultural land and crop area، price of land and horticulturalcropinsurance hada positive effect on householdsize،literacy levels، experience، price ofhorticultural products (kiwi)، and price ofcrops and satisfaction level ofsupportinstitutions had a negative effect on thelevel ofchanging in land use. According to the findings، creation of expansion in surance for coverage of small farmers، preventing price volatility horticultural and agricultural products، paying attention to agricultural production asstrategic products and supporting the operation of this sector in a package is suggested.
    Keywords: Changinge in Land Use, Heckman, Marginal Effect, Tobit Model
  • H. Mohammadi, H. Rouhani Pages 116-125
    Introduction
    Scientificand practicaltrainingwith an emphasis onoperation andapplication of what is taught and having an empiricalapproachto education isa more suitable approach for creating jobs. Preparation of educational needs of the agricultural sector by scientificand practicaltraining and providingemploymentin agreement with education and skills is one of the most important programs in order to achieve the objectives of comprehensive development of the country. An imbalance seems to exist between the processes and materials in university courses and the skills and abilities needed by the labor market and this is the most importantreason for the failureof the university graduatesin finding employment. This studyhas beendone for understandingthe type of jobof agricultural graduatesof training center of Jihad-e-Keshavarzi in Mashhad and the factor saffecting their employment.
    Materials And Methods
    This study is an applied research and the statistical population is 167 and includes all the students who had earned a Bachelor’s degree who had come to receive their graduation certificates in 2011. The dependent variable is type of job which includes five categories of employment in the public sector related to education، employ men unrelated to the government، employment related tothe privatesector andthe unemployed who were seeking workin the private sector. Independent variables includegender،quotainuniversityadmissions، the level of interestin thefield of study،satisfaction withthe discipline، evaluationand trainingof graduatesofvocational skillsacquired incollegegraduates''assessmentof thework culturein the societyand evaluation oflack ofcapitalas a factor preventingemployment in the academicfield. Information was collected through questionnaires and the multiple probit mode lwas used.
    Results And Discussion
    The results ofthe survey showthatjobsof graduates are divided intofour categoriesincluding: Related to the field of study and governmental job (21%)، non-related to field of study and governmental job (25. 5%)، related to field of study and private job (25. 7)، non-related to field of study and private job (8. 4%)، and 41. 5% of graduates wereunemployed. 77% of the statistical population said that the cause of unemployment is lack of capital. The variables of professionalism and evaluation of work culture in the statistical population was intermediate. The model showed that gender، field of study choice based on the level of interest، satisfaction with the studies، andlack of capital as a barrier to employment، and evaluation of the educational and professional skills acquired during the studieshave a significantimpact on employment. The regression equation as a whole is significant. According to this، thelikelihoodof womenworkingingovernmentjobsand privateand non-private was lower than that of men. With increasinginterestin thefield of study،the possibility ofworkinginrelated and unrelatedprivate jobsincreased. By increasing thedegreeofsatisfaction، the possibility ofworkingingovernmentjobsincreased. The lack of funds for activities in the field of employment is one of the problems. Therefore، the more thelack of capitalto start andcontinueis highlighted، the more thetendency of people toget employed in a public officeand to avoidthe possibility ofsetting upprivate businesses is. Aboutthe possibility of working in unrelated government jobs، none of the variablesshoweda significant relationship. And the possibility ofworkinginprivatejobs، genderandlevel ofinterest inthe choiceof the field of studyshoweda significant relationship. Women are facing more difficulties than men in employmentin the agricultural sector.
    Conclusion
    Therisk ofunemploymentis higheramong womengraduates since the usual trend is to create better condition and motivations formale farmerswho live in villages. Also they should be given them some low-interest loans usingbank’s financialresources until economicactivitiesare undertaken by them according totheir knowledge. Moreover، the role of themotivations، creativity andinnovation، creatingvalue-addedproducts، and thefunctional andoperationaltraininginhigher education centersofagriculture must be emphasized. Thelack of capitalasa major obstaclein this fieldmust also beconsidered. Special attention should be to theeducational and professionalskillsacquiredin the schoolthat could result inself-employedjobsin the private sectorandevenself-employedjobs in the agricultural sector. Activating skill development centers andentrepreneurshipinthe applied sciencelearning centers must be aimed at providing aplaceof interaction anddialogue which canplay a constructive roleinthe futureemploymentof graduates،and theidentification oftalents too. Given that themajority ofgraduateshave suggested thatcareerguidance has not been provided for them، the role of such centersisalso of high importance.
    Keywords: Agricultural graduates, Job, Multinomial Probit model
  • M. Charmchian Langerodi Pages 126-138
    Introduction
    Agriculture relies on nature and farmers face environmental، social، financial and legal issues that makes farming to be consistently and strongly associated with risk. Agriculture can be considered to be the most risky economic venture. Ahmadi (1) listed several main sources of risk that farmers face. Economic risk includes price fluctuations for raw materials such as seed and fertilizer and for machinery at the pre-market delivery stage، difficulty obtaining bank credit and loans، price volatility for products in the post market delivery stage، inconsistent government policies for products and global fluctuations in the price of products. Social risk includes theft of crops، production and agricultural machinery and war. Nature-related risk includes natural disasters، climate change، agricultural pests and diseases. Market risk includes changes in the price of raw materials and products and increasing interest rates. Given that the range of agricultural activities having critical risk are diverse and the climate can vary widely، more sophisticated services are needed to meet the demands، cope with hazards and decrease risk. Understanding how women rice farmers deal with risk is essential for educators، and agriculture-related industries such as insurance، and policymakers. If the attitudes of these women towards risk are accurately recognized، risk management strategies، risk-related educational programs and risk strategies can be designed to meet their needs. The overallaim of this research isto investigate factors affecting risk management، and proposing and designing a model among rice cultivating women in Sari.
    Materials And Methods
    The population of the study comprised 1677rice cultivating women in Sari of whom 248 were selected through stratified random sampling. A combination of quantitative، and descriptive-inferential statistics served as the methodology for the study and SPSS 16 and LISREL were applied for data analysis. To determine the validity of the questionnaire، copies were distributed to experts in the field and their comments were recorded and relevant corrections were made. Corrected content validity was determined by experts at the Agricultural Organization of Mazandaran province، then reliability of the questionnaire was assessed by random completion of 30 questionnaires by women rice farmers in Qaem Shahr by interview and survey. Cronbach’s alpha and ordinal theta were 0. 84 and 0. 89، respectively. The questionnaire contained questions about age، work experience، area of owned land، extent of financial difficulty related to rice farming، and educational level of the women rice farmers. The questionnaire contained questions about risk management approaches (17 questions)، sources of information for women rice farmers in Sari (12 questions) and sources for borrowing funds (7 questions). The Likert scale was: none (0)، very low (1)، low (2)، moderate (3)، high (4)، and very high (5).
    Results And Discussion
    The average age range of women in the study was 46. 68 years and their relative work experience was 26. 17 years. The average financial difficulty for the women was high. The woman rice farmers were most likely to obtain loans from friends and neighbors and also to obtain financing from winning lottery. There was a significant positive relationship between information resources، borrowing resources، extent of financial difficulty، rice cultivation experience، and educational level with risk management methods. Tabatabaee et al. (30) stated that the extent of borrowing affected risk management. Tiraee (31) pointed to agricultural experience affecting risk management. Monfared (21)، Torkamani and Ezatabadi (33) and Garavandi and Alibige (10) believe that the level of education affects risk management،which is consistent with the results of this study. Structural equation modeling showed that information sources influenced the use of risk management methods. Structural equation modeling showed that information sources had an effect on risk management rate which is consistent with the results of Tabatabaeeet al. (30) and Stevenet al. (29).
    Conclusion
    The results indicate that the average age of women was 46. 68 years and their average work experience was 26. 17 years، which represents a good work experience on paddy land. Women should be encouraged to pursue off-farm income sources and occupations as risk management methods. Collaborative rice farming and consulting agricultural experts are other forms of risk management. Recommended sources of information were the Internet، Jihad-e-Keshavarzi management and service center، participating in agricultural extension classes، educational publications and communicating with agricultural experts. Women farmers should be encouraged to increase their knowledge and awarenessabout the sources of risk and this can improve risk management. This should be regarded as a mission for agriculture extensions. Borrowing sources، the extent of farmer financial difficulties، work experience and educational level should be considered when risk management methods for women rice farmers are advocated.
    Keywords: Risk management, Source of information, Rice cultivating women, Sari
  • A. Sandoghi, A.M. Amini, A. Yousefi Pages 139-149
    Introduction
    Continuing growth in human population and consumptionmeans that the global demand for food will increase for at least another 40 years and that the world needs 70-100% more food by 2050. Environmental issues such as climate change، depletion of naturalresources and biodiversity loss increasingly threaten the welfare ofhuman civilization. Confronting these threats requires، among otherthings، behavioral changes in citizens، governments and companies. Farmers and other producers are responding to consumer concerns about pesticides by creating new marketing opportunities for products grown with environmentally sound practices. Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding of how people cognitively organize their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. The purpose of the presentinvestigation is to evaluate the consumers’ preferences and factors affecting their choice for conventional، healthy and organic cucumbers in Isfahan، Iran.
    Materials And Methods
    Data were collected on a sample of 230consumers in 2013 by using the proportionate stratification samplingmethod through face-to-face interviews based on a comprehensive structured questionnaire. Before the survey، the reliability and validity of the questionnaire were initially evaluated in a pre-test study، respectively، by using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient and Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) criteria. Individual preferences were uncovered in choice experiment method (CEM) by a contingent ranking experiment. In a contingent ranking experiment، respondents are required to rank a set of alternative options، characterized by a number of attributes، which are offered at different levels across the options. Data were analyzed by multinomial logit models. The approach consists of modeling utility، that isto say the net benefit a consumer obtains from selecting a specificproduct in a choice situation. Determining and arranging selected sets based on a review of studies and theoretical basis design scenarios of the experiment method، includes environmental characteristics، taste، appearance، price، duration of storage، the disease and the long-term complications.
    Results And Discussion
    Most of the respondents were female، with average age of 41. 6 years، academic education level (39. 5%) and the average monthly income of 9،760 thousand Rials. The results show that 77. 1%، 12. 4% and 10. 1% of consumers، respectively selected the healthy، organic and conventional crops as a first choice. Moreover، the consumer''s awareness towards healthy food products is low. According to the logistic regression results، the most important factors affecting the consumers'' healthier choices are income، consumer knowledge about the characteristics of healthy and organic crops، the level of consumer’s attitudes toward the importance of environmental protection and human health and having an elderly or sick member in the household. On the other hand، healthy shopping concern، age، gender، employment status and education have no significant impact on the consumer’s selection. In other words، the likelihood of choosing healthy and organic products is more in people who care about their health and nutritional status، as well as with more health consciousness، environmental concerns and knowledge regarding the risks of pesticides and characteristics of free of pesticide fruit and vegetables.
    Conclusion
    There is no difference between academic and non-academic respondent’s preferences for healthy crops، because of no general academic courses on the importance of environmental protection، healthy shopping، production and consumption of healthy and organic products in Iran''seducationalsystem. Moreover، attitude and awareness play fundamental rolesin consumers'' preferences. Willingness to pay for healthy food products in women is observed to be more than men. This could be due to the fact that housewives have more leisure time than men to make themselves aware. Also in most families buying and cooking raw materials is one of women''s responsibilities which enables them to be more cautious in selecting foods. Knowing the characteristics of healthy and organic cropsis one of the most important factors in choosing and purchasing these products. Since the elderly and ill people need more feeding care and have less resistance to harmful additives and preservatives in food products، their families are more willing to buy free of chemicals fruits and vegetables. Promoting the consumers awareness toward the benefits of healthy products could change their attitude about the importance of maintaining health and subsequently improve public health and the environment. Furthermore، it is necessary to adopt thestandardsin the process of healthy crop production and to monitor andto strengthenthe marketing system of healthy products such as guaranteeing labeling and appropriatepackaging.
    Keywords: Consumer preferences, Multinomial logit, Contingent ranking, Healthy, organic crops, Isfahan
  • H. Balali, M. Mantashloo Pages 150-158
    Introduction
    Generally، subsidies are the amounts of government payments in order to provide all society members with minimum well-being. In several countries such as Iran، the agriculture sector is supported by different methods to achieve goals such as increasing farmers'' income، supporting domestic producers and eliminating dependence on imports، preserving employment and reducing poverty. A significant part of agriculture subsidies has been allocated to energy resources، chemical fertilizers، seeds، agriculture machines، vaccines، animal toxins، the interest on bank loans، insurance fees، certain airplane services، distributing young saplings، and government guaranteed purchase of products. However، examining the subsidies system in Iran reveals that most government payments are in the agriculture sector and more specifically on energy resources. Recently، the extra low cost of energy in the agriculture sector، which has had certain government supports، has resulted in low productivity and environmental damage، and has resulted in increased demand for agricultural products due to population growth، changes in life pattern، deviation in energy cost in agricultural sector، environment destruction and influences on sustainable agriculture indicators. Moreover، among different production units، agriculture has the closest relationship with the environment. This relationship is a mutual. On the one hand، erosion and destruction of the environment along with pollution growth and shortage of water resources negatively influences the production and efficiency of agricultural products، and on the other hand، agricultural pollutants and irregular use of chemical fertilizers in this sector impose indispensable damages to the environment. This study aims to apply a partial equilibrium model in order to examine direct and indirect effects of reduction of energy subsidies on economic and environmental indicators of agricultural sustainability in the Qorveh region، situated in the West of Iran.
    Materials And Methods
    The statistical sample of this research includes all irrigated land of Qorveh as the studied area. A partial equilibrium model has been applied by mathematic programming approach in order to analyze the economic and environmental effects of reduction of energy subsidies for the agriculture sector in the studied area. For this purpose، through a survey، questionnaires were used in order to identify production coefficients of agriculture products and farmers'' behavior during 2012-2013. Then relevant equations were used in mathematical programming framework with the aim of maximizing gross margin of agriculture activities in planning horizon by using GAMS 22. 9.
    Results And Discussion
    The results showed that by increasing energy price in policy scenarios of ES1 to ES7 the gross margin of agriculture activities decreases. Also، the results indicate that by implementation of scenarios SE1 and SE2، most economical and environmental indicators of agricultural sustainability will be improved and increasing energy prices as the mentioned policy scenarios has the most effect on GM_ELEC، GM_GAS، and NIT_H indicators and reduces them by 10. 7%، 0. 97% and 1. 48%، respectively. In scenarios ES3 to ES5 with respect to scenarios ES1 and ES2، there is only 7% decrease in the NIT_H index. In scenario ES6، which grows electricity cost by 2. 25 times and diesel fuel cost by 1. 98 times، GM_ELEC، and GM_WA have the maximum decrease، namely 12. 66% and 14. 47%، respectively and WA_H has reached 9010 which shows an increase of 6. 47%. In scenario ES7، with the exception of WA_H، GM_ELEC and GM_GAS other indicators decreased and this shows that the closer we keep to real energy prices، the more improvement we observe in the environmental indicators.
    Conclusions
    Consequently، results showed that the reduction of energy subsidies leads to reductions in economic indicators of the study area، as total gross margins. Also، the results showed that by increasing energy prices toward its real value، the consumption of energy will be reduced and environmental indicators including nitrate and potash fertilizers consumption per hectare of land will be improved.
    Keywords: Agricultural Sustainability, Energy Subsidy, Mathematical Programming, Partial Equilibrium
  • S.J. Mohammadi, S.A. Hosseini Yekani, H. Ghaderzadeh Pages 159-168
    Introduction
    In the developed world، particularly in developing countries، livestock is the most important agricultural sub-sector. Livestock of primary and secondary industries has an especial place in the national economybecause of their greatvalue of products، creating job opportunities، providing health products for consumers، increasing export income of the economy throughaccessing global markets of livestock products and finally their undeniable role in acquiring food security. The demand for milk in Iran increased due to an increase in population and the amount of milk production was also increased. The great share of increased produced milk goes to the industrial dairy farms. One of the major methods to increase the amount of milk production continually is to make its production efficient and improve economic conditions. The current study attempts to determine the efficiency and ranking of industrial dairy farms in Saqqez and Divandarreh cities using super-efficiency model.
    Materials And Methods
    The statistical populations of the study are all active industrial dairy farms of Saqqez and Divandarreh cities which are about 19 farms. The required data for calculating the efficiency were gathered by surveying and completing questionnaires for the year 2013. In this study first، for each farm Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method and GAMS software package were used to estimate super efficiency. Super efficiency is a form of modified DEA model in which each farm can get an efficiency greater than one. Then in order to make sure about being unbiased the obtained super-efficiency scores، the modified model of Banker and Gifford، was re-estimated and the conventional efficiency scores of farms were compared by normalizing and removing some of the scores of outlier farm based on pre-selected screens. The model has suggested conditions for which some of the estimates for dairy farms might have been contaminated with error. As a t result، it has been ranked as an efficient farm.
    Results And Discussion
    The statistical description of the farms studied showed that، the highest and lowest amount of produced milk from one dairy were in the range of 845 and 250 kg per month. The super efficiency estimation showed that the mean of farms''super efficiency based on the assumption of variable return to scale for input-oriented is 1. 01. About 58 per cent of the studied dairy cattle farms were inefficient and the Super-efficiency of about 42 per cent of total farms got scores under the average. The amount of λ_k^* for all farms except for farms 3 and 5 has become 0. Furthermore، these two farms in primitive super efficiency model have become infeasible. Therefore، they have been considered as reference farms. The results of super-efficiency method and efficiency conventional DEA method were compared together and inefficient farms got the similar efficiency and super-efficiency scores، and efficient farms whose super-efficiency score had been equaled or more than 1، stand over frontier production function in the conventional model. To determine the sensitivity of results to removing the outliers، three different levels (1)
    Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, Dairy Farms, Outlier Farms, Saqqez, Divandarreh Cities, Super, Efficiency
  • H. Iraji, M. Zibaei, F. Nasrnia Pages 169-180
    Introduction
    Iran is constantly exposed to natural disasters such as floods، earthquakes and drought. In the meantime، drought is the major natural disaster which leads to numerous losses in agriculture and water resources، and this phenomenon is slow and creeping. Available evidence suggests that drought management is based on crisis management. As the present management in our country is based on crisis management، and drought-proneareasin thecountryhave become a society vulnerable to drought. So، the authorities require a new set of data for drought preparedness to deal with these challenges، in order to obtain the resources to be properly and effectively prioritized and reduce the effects of drought and its consequences. Undoubtedly، the starting point of vulnerability assessment and risk management is a prerequisite that has been sadly neglected in our country. In this context، the aim of this study is to determine the vulnerability of technical، economic and social vulnerability assessment determined before and after the drought and vulnerability patterns for wheat farmers in the North of Fars province.
    Materials And Methods
    The vulnerability of wheat farmers in the North of Fars province is determined using three methods. The first method measured ex ante vulnerability based on estimated income distributions، and the other identified ex post vulnerability according to farmers asset positions and drought coping strategy in the 1390 drought. The final section determined the patterns of vulnerability using cluster analysis and data mining. A sample of 203 farmers in three plains was selected for interview and collection of necessary farm level data for two years (1390 and 1391) was carried out. In this study، to assess the vulnerability of households in the North of Fars province against drought، the formula Me-bar and Valdez has been used. In North of Fars province، as many other fields، agriculture is the main source of income and income from agriculture is highly dependent on rainfall. The conditional mean and variance for each farmer household، were predicted using data on rainfall and farm household characteristics. In this study، to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmer households in the North of Fars province before the drought، the method used to estimate household income distribution is Kusunose.
    Results And Discussion
    Data for the wheat farmers in three fields Aspass، Namdan and Sedehwho constitute 86% of the Northern Province were collected through questionnaire and with a simple random multistage interview. Typically، ex ante vulnerability، using data on household consumption or expenditure data over time wasmeasured. Household consumption or costs reflect the income stream and the family’s coping capacity. It should be noted that the measurement of vulnerability to drought before (ex ante) is based on two assumptions of behavior and consumers’ income. After the drought، vulnerability criteria (ex post)، on the basis of income shocks caused by drought and household tools to tackle with the drought، were measured. The characteristics of households that are vulnerable according to the criteria based on the characteristics of vulnerable households are compared. Percent of irrigated lands are vulnerable households with vulnerable families، and it somehow reflects easier access to equipment and facilities are vulnerable households irrigation.
    Conclusion
    The results shows that if crops are the sole income source and have no consumption smoothing capability whatsoever، and consumption perfectly tracks income، over 32% of sampled farmers fall to the Southwest of the 60% vulnerability curve meaning that these farmers would fall under the poverty line ever 60% of the time. But only 10% of the sampled farmers would fall under poverty line over 60% of the time if we use the second income measure، the combined income from crops and off-farm sources. The results showed that factors such as unity of citizens and access to capital for agricultural inputs rank first and second in terms of vulnerability todrought. Also، by putting the dimensions of technical، economic and social vulnerability، this study extracted seven independent and distinct patterns of vulnerability. The comparison between the specifications of vulnerable and secure households during droughts shows policy for farmers who are vulnerable to drought before and after the drought، and policies to increase employment opportunities outside the farm. The findings of this study help policymakers shift from crisis management to risk management and design appropriate plans at sub-regional or farm level rather than national or regional levels.
    Keywords: Drought, Economical vulnerability, Social vulnerability, Technical vulnerability, Vulnerability patterns
  • Z. Golriz Ziaie, R. Moghaddasi, S. Yazdani Pages 181-191
    Introduction
    In today’s competitive environment delivering high quality service is the key for a sustainable competitive advantage. Customer satisfaction has a positive effect on an organization’s profitability. Satisfied customers form the foundation of any successful business because customer satisfaction leads to repeated purchases، brand loyalty، and positive expression of satisfaction to other people about the business. Here، we introduce a new index formeasuring customer satisfaction for hypermarkets in Iran. The new assumption of thisresearch is that other factors affect customer satisfaction via image. They contribute in making image of hypermarket in customer mind and، through it، have most effect on customer satisfaction.
    Materials And Methods
    The current paper defines and estimates customer satisfaction index for Mashhad municipality hypermarkets. For this purpose، after definition of the model with structural equation modeling، it uses partial least square and generalized maximum entropy for estimating the defined model. After estimation، results of two manners will be compared with mean squared error for choosing the best way. The data used in this study are collected as a survey and are based on purposeful sampling method from 367 customers of 16 municipality hypermarkets available in Mashhad. Assumptions of this study are as follows: Assumption 1: Increasing perceived quality of supplied products and services in a store will increase customer satisfaction. Assumption 2: Increasing perceived value of services and supplied products in a store will increase customer satisfaction. Assumption 3: Increasing a customer’s perceived quality of supplied products in a store will increase his perceived value. Assumption 4: Increasing a customer’s perceived quality of services in a store willincrease his perceived value. Assumption 5: Positive perceived image of a store will increase customer satisfaction. Assumption 6: Perceived quality of supplied products and services will have a positive effect onperceived image. Assumption 7: Perceived value of supplied products and services will have a positive effect on perceived image. Assumption 8: Increasing customer satisfaction will increase customer loyalty. Assumption 9: Customer loyalty will lead to his praise، price insensitivity and complaint behavior.
    Results And Discussion
    Results of the study represents PLS as best manner and introduces perceived value and image as factors affecting customer satisfaction and praise as the result of customer loyalty and so suggests more surveillance on price level of these hypermarkets and creates a good atmosphere in them for improvement of these two indicators. All tests on PLS results indicate good and adaptable estimates. Average of composite reliability index is 0. 85 and it is higher than 0. 7 for all indices. So، the model has high reliability and all blocks arehomogenous. The average of communality index is 0. 58. It means that on the average0. 58 percent of manifested variables variability is explained by latent variables. With regardto the output of the model، the power of explanation is confirmed. In this model،the average of redundancy index is 0. 2 and larger than 0. 125، so it is an adaptable number. Also the GOF index is estimated to be 0. 48 and implies on good estimating of the model. The square rootsof the AVE values proved to be greater than the rest of the values for all the measuredvariables used in this study، confirming the existence of discriminant validity. The CSI index was 3. 77، which shows customers are relatively satisfied with services of these stores. Between all variables، score of loyalty was lower than others and shows that these storesmust try harder for attaining customer loyalty.
    Conclusion
    In recent years، customer satisfaction index has been evaluated and measured in different countries across organizations، industries and national level، but in Iran this index is not studied enough. In this paper we devise a suitable model for measuring customer satisfaction index for hypermarkets in Iran. We consider new relationships between factors affecting satisfaction، as we assume that perceived quality and value have most of their effects on customer satisfaction via perceived image. We used PLS and ME Methods for estimating the model and our results confirmed our assumption. Also،the results of this study represent PLS as the best manner. Given the importance of customer satisfaction index، the model presented in this study can be used as a basic model adoptable by governmental and private institutions and organizations in this industry، especially municipality of Mashhad، after due research works.
    Keywords: Customer satisfaction index, Generalized maximum entropy, Partial least square
  • H. Moumenihelali, A. Ahmadpour Pages 192-203
    Introduction
    One of the fundamental issues in the agricultural sector in Iran is the absence of optimal water and soil resources utilization and lack of new agricultural science and technology adoption through major prevailing transformations in agricultural land exploitation system. The studies conducted in the history of agricultural development in Iran cast light on the fact that the farming system’s role in the agricultural development in Iran is of great importance. And water and soil resources utilization has been one of the fundamental issues of agriculture which has enjoyed major consideration after the implementation of land restructuring. The agriculture farming systems are referred to as the focus of all activities related to sustainable agricultural development in Iran and it is believed that the shift and transition from traditional agriculture to modern and profitable agriculture through appropriate، improved and newly developed agricultural establishments are the major activities which can increase productivity and improve the overall performance of the agricultural sector and thus contribute to sustainable development more than any other factor. Hence، such significance will be more evident when the small and scattered farmlands in many cases have imposed some limitations in the application of agricultural techniques and machinery، equipping and developing the infrastructure and efficient use of resources with appropriate performance forcing agricultural policymakersto be always looking for ways to deal with it. Therefore، identifying the relative advantage of any farming system specified for each area and region in the country seems important. Accordingly، the Mazandaran province is regarded as one of the production hubs in producing crops such as rice، wheat and canola in the country playing a major role in supplying food. With a detailed analysis of research literature، the economic، ecological، social، technical and policy criteria were identified as sustainability criteria for agricultural activities in the province along with Cooperative، Commercial and Peasant alternatives as the dominant farming system in the present study. Consequently، the identification of the most suitable farming system for sustainable agricultural activities in the province serves as the main objective of this research.
    Materials And Methods
    The study adopted an applied survey approach to conduct the study in 2014 in Mazandaran. The statistical population comprised of all professionals and experts working in the field of sustainability aspects and farming systems with a deep understanding and sufficient information on the issue being selected through purposive and snowball sampling summing up to 15 subjects. A questionnaire was used to collect data. In order to determine the face and content validities، the professors’ and specialists’ comments were taken into account and to estimate the reliability، the inconsistency rate was used. To achieve the main objective، the analytic hierarchy process technique by considering 5 criteria and 33 sub-criteria on three farming types (cooperative، commercial and peasant) were used. The Expert Choice software 2000 was applied for data analysis. It should be noted that the analytic hierarchy process is a multi-criteria decision-making approach being based on paired comparison which enables managers and policymakers to review various scenarios. Likewise، it is sought to consider the experts’ opinions from the most central units involved instead of focusing on the number of decision-makers.
    Results And Discussion
    Based on the results and considering criteria prioritization reveal the fact that the ecological،policy، social dimensions compared with the economic and technical criteria remain more imperative. Therefore، the ecological، political and social dimensions are the most important aspects of agricultural activities sustainability in the province. Hence، it can be concluded that in order to maintain the sustainability of agricultural activities، the emphasis should be placed on ecological issues which are at present a great challenge and crisis at the international level and social policy based on sustainable agriculture. The growing integration of land restructuring and biological and organic farming development in recent years advocates the importance of the ecological aspect. Similarly، considering the ecological، political، economic and technical criteria، the commercial and cooperative farming system ranked first and second، respectively. Nevertheless، consistent with social criterion، the cooperative and commercial farming system kept the first and second priorities.
    Conclusion
    Combining the relative weight of criteria and sub-criteria in agricultural activities sustainability and the farming system، the commercial farming system with good Inconsistency Ratio was the most desired and applicable farming system in sustainable agricultural activities and cooperative farming system with a diminutive difference ranked second. Based on the research findings، the most appropriate system was the commercial farming system and the cooperative farming system was second. However، since such model is not widely applied in the province at present، it is necessary that provincial and even national policymakers and practitioners consider the issue and the agricultural activities development and establishment mechanisms in terms of modern commercial and cooperative farming system be provided. As in most of these types of farming systems، the criteria identified in this research are substantially observed and their emphasis can serve as an effective step towards the development of sustainable agriculture.
    Keywords: Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Farming system, Sustainable agriculture
  • M. Nabishahikitash, E. Gholipoorbolasi, A. Mohammadzadeh Pages 204-215
    Introduction
    Food processing industries are one of the major industrial groups in developing countries which play an important role in the economic development of these countries. With the Developed and Developing Food Industry on the other hand، food security and providing food are very important in each country. In an overview، markets are divided into two groups: The first group is a market with perfect competition. And second group is markets with monopoly structure. One of the important features of markets that determine its type is the ability of the firms in the pricing and determiningof the amount of production. If the firms do not have any effect on these two factors، themarket has perfect competition. If the firms have the ability to influence price of productions، this market is non-competitive and a concept called market power emerges. In general، not only market power is the ability of firm in determination of price above the competitive situation، but also it does not let its share of sale to decrease. The existence of collusion in markets can makethem distantfrom perfect competition and make them incomplete. In economics and particularly in industrial organization، market power is the ability of a firm to profitably raise the market price of a good or service over marginal cost. In perfect competitive markets، market participants have no market power. A firm with total market power can raise prices without losing any customers to competitors. Firms that have power to set price are referred to as «price makers» or «price setters»، while those without itare sometimes called «price-takers». Significant market power occurs when prices exceed marginal cost and the long run average cost، so the firm makes economic profits. A firm with market power has the ability to individually affect either the total quantity or the prevailing price in the market. Price makers face a downward slopingdemand curve، such that increases in price leads to a lower quantity of demand. The decrease in supply as a result of the exercise of market power creates an economic deadweight loss which is often viewed as socially undesirable. As a result، many countries have anti-trustor other legislation to limit the ability of firms to create market power. Such legislation often regulates mergers and sometimes introduces a judicial power to compel divestiture. A firm usually has market power by virtue of controlling a large portion of the market. In extreme cases—monopoly and monopsony—the firm controls the entire market. However، market size alone is not the only indicator of market power. Highly concentrated markets may be contestable if there are no barriers to entry or exit، limiting the incumbent firm''s ability to raise its price above competitive levels. Market power gives firms the ability to engage in unilateral anti-competitive behavior. [1] Some of the behaviors that firms with market power are accused of engaging in include predatory pricing، product tying، and creation of overcapacity or other barriers to entry. If no individual participant in the market has significant market power، then anti-competitive behavior can take place only through collusion، or the exercise of a group of participants'' collective market power. The Lerner index and Herfindahl index may be used to measure market power. Examination of market power of different industries provides possibility that policymakers design and deliver model for processing food and beverage producers to guide them to the product that has the most social benefits.
    Materials And Methods
    The main purpose of this study is to assess and identify market structure and market power and estimate coefficient of collusion in the food and beverage industry. Estimates of market power in the food and beverage industry in Iran are few when compared with similar studies overseas. For local studies we can cite papers such as Alijani&Sabuhi (4)، Sheikh zeinodin&Bakhshude (3)، Safdarhoseiniet all (2)، Mazhari&Yazdani. Yet،foreign studies conducted in this area are varied in different sectors. For example، the studies Angelini&cetorell (15) andRezitis (24) in the banking system can be mentioned. Of the other foreign studies Leo (21)، Bresnahan (12)، Abayasiri (8)، Boyle & Hall (14)، Saitone& etal. (25)، Koontz (20)، Duravall (17)، Steen (29)، Salhofer and etAl. (28)، Allender (10)، Siton and et al. (25)، Rigoberto et all (22)، Lopez & etal. (22)، Oustapassidis& etal. (23) can be cited. The model in this paper to estimate market power used for the food and beverage industries has been developed by Bresnahan& Leo. In this model،by considering demand and supply market powercan be investigated. In the next step، marginal cost (cost function is Translog cost) and marginal revenue will be obtained. In the final step،by estimatingthe final equation market power can be calculated. The type of industrial classification used in this study is the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC). This kind of classification is widely used for empirical studies because of lack of industrial data on the basis of other classifications. We use firm level data aggregated to the4- digit ISIC code of industries. The purpose of this study is to estimate the market structure and market power of the food and drink industry in Iran. For estimating market power، conjectural variation is used.
    Results And Discussion
    In oligopoly theory، conjectural variation is the belief that one firm has about the way its competitors may react if it varies its output or price. The firm forms a conjecture about the variation in the other firm''s output that will accompany any change in its own output. For example، in the classic Cournot model of oligopoly، it is assumed that each firm treats the output of the other firms as given when it chooses its output. This is sometimes called the «Nash conjecture» as it underlies the standard Nash equilibrium concept. However، alternative assumptions can be made. Suppose you have two firms producing the same good، so that the industry price is determined by the combined output of the two firms (think of the water duopoly in Cournot''s original 1838 account). Now suppose that each firm has what is called the «Bertrand Conjecture» of −1. This means that if firm A increases its output، it conjectures that firm B will reduce its output to exactly offset firm A''s increase، so that the total output and hence price remain unchanged. With the Bertrand Conjecture، the firms act as if they believe that the market price is unaffected by their own output، because each firm believes that the other firm will adjust its output so that total output will be constant. At the other extreme is the Joint-Profit maximizing conjecture of +1. In this case each firm believes that the other firm will imitate exactly any change it makes in output، which leads (with constant marginal cost) to the firms behaving like a single monopoly supplier. The results show that it is significant uncompetitive pattern for 18 of the 19 industries. Existence of oligopoly industry for 12 shows the non-competitiveness of this industry. The flour and cereals production industry has 2. 24 degrees of collusion and the tea industry has 2. 14 degrees of collusion. Degree of conjectural variation is between 0. 43 and 2. 24. These numbers are related to carbonated soft drinks industry and production of flour and cereals.
    Conclusion
    This paper discusses the Market Structure and the Degree of Market Power and Collusion Index of Food and Beverage industry on the basis of Modern Industrial Organization (NEIO) with Bresnahan- Leo (1982) Approach. For this Purpose، data of ISIC Four- Digit Code is used to investigate the 19 industries for the years 2005-2011. The result showsthat competitive conditions for 18 Industriesaresignificant. The degree of Market Power is between 0. 43 and 2. 24. 12. The industry has Oligopolistic Market and Production of Oil and Fat Industry has a Monopoly Market close to perfect. Conjectural Variation for the Industry of Flour and Tea isvery high، with 2. 42 and 2. 14، respectively. Except malt and alcohol-free beer industry، uncompetitive model is significant for other industries. In summary، industries with a high degree of collusion will include: processing and preserving of fruit، sugar production، bakery، livestock slaughtering and poultry. Industries with a low degree of collusion will include: production of animal and vegetable oils and fats، tea making، producing Malt and alcohol free beer. Industries that follow Cournot Model will include tea making. Industries with coefficient of collusion between 2 and 5 will include: processing and preserving of fish، dairy products، animal feed production and the production of sugar، bakery، bread، pastries، biscuitsand soft drinks. Industries with a competitive model will include date palm sorting.
    Keywords: Conjectural elasticity, Industry, Market power, Oligopoly