فهرست مطالب rasam moshrefi

Hubert's theory showed US oil production on a bell-like curve in 1956 and was introduced in the energy economics literature. This theory shows the lifespan, time trend and peak production of hydrocarbon reserves. In this research, the gas production from independent offshore gas fields, which provide about 60% of the country's natural gas production, was simulated. To compensate for the theoretical limitations of Hubert's model for not considering the dynamics in the ultimate recoverable reserves, the production process and cumulative production, the System Dynamics methodology were used. The model was used to simulate the production volume ​​and present worth of the national wealth of gas produced from independent offshore fields. The simulation results indicate that in the base scenario, the peak production is in the year 1413 (Persian calendar) by 2263 million cubic meters per day of gas production, and the present value of the accumulated produced gas will be $1354 billion at a price of the year 1401. The simulations results show that extraction with an annual growth rate of 13% (average from the year 1390 to 1396) would only be possible up to the year 1404. Each one per cent increase in the recovery factor adds $11 billion to the present value of accumulated production, and a leakage of 10% of the recoverable reserves would cause an economic loss of $87 billion to the national wealth.

Considering that one of the requirements of economic development in any country, is to reduce poverty and increase the economic welfare of the people. Exploring this important issue, without identifying the factors affecting poverty and the contextual relationship between them along, will not be possible. The purpose of this study, is to examine poverty and explore its effective factors alongwith the content relationship between factors in Iran with a systems engineering methodology will be utilized and identifying the external and strategic factors of the system as policy tools to pave the way for increasing the efficiency of economic policy makers in the field of poverty. Therefore, using related research, 9 factors affecting poverty have been identified and then each of them has been explained. Then Interpretive Structural Modeling and concept star software willbe used, and a hierarchical system will be presented. according to the research findings, the 4 components of micro facilities, Education, grants and social security were considered as exogenous and strategic factors of the system of factors affecting poverty that can be used as policy variables by policy makers.

Freight or transit of goods is one of the most profitable commercial services in the world, especially for countries that are geographically located in the international transit routes. Iran's natural and geographical location can be considered as the most strategic transit routes for Afghanistan and East CIS countries. This landlocked region requires the transit of goods through Iranian ports to access international waters, and this could create the potential for huge cargo transportation demand for Iran. In this paper, based on the gravity model of international trade, an estimate of the potential freight demand of this region is obtained from the Iranian transportation system, especially maritime transport through Chabahar port, and then the cargo potential of this region is estimated for the foreseeable future. The specified model has been estimated by generalized least squares method using the panel data with fixed effects in 30 sections and the period 2010 to 2018 biennially. The results show that the prospect of cargo demand of this region in 2022 is more than 2 trillion $.

Abstract The Iranian banking sector is experiencing changes such as the expansion of private banks, the merge of several banks and non-bank credit institutions, and the bankruptcy of a number of non-bank credit institutions. Thus addressing the changes in the number of banks, by taking into account the size of the country's economy compared to other countries, can help policymakers and the banking system planners to provide structural reforms and help to design better monetary policy. In this research, an index for the number of banks has been introduced and is calculated for the 27 selected countries considering the heterogeneity of banks and the importance of the size of the economy, therefore, it is appropriate for comparing the number of banks in different countries. The result shows that the size of the Iranian banking sector is increasing in the period of study, and given the size of the country's economy, the number of banks in Iran is less than the average of the selected countries. Furthermore, the factors affecting the number of banks by using the panel data model for the 11 selected MENA countries for the period 2015-2011 were investigated. It seems that considering the average of MENA countries, the number of Iranian banks should be more than the current one.

In recent years, the value-added created in the transportation industry is about 8 percent of GDP of Iran. Due to the high-induced effect of transportation sector on the whole economy, analyzing transportation production function and its determinant is of great value for policymakers. The objective of the present research is to estimate the transportation production for the case of Iran and to examine the economic inputs of this sector using the auto-regressive distributed lags (ARDL) method based on time series of 1960 to 2014. The research results show, In long-term, the effect of capital, in comparison to energy input and labour, on the production of transportation services is quite stronger by production elasticity of 0.81 while labour and energy production elasticity is near 0.07 and 0.21. Based on the statistical test, the hypothesis of the existence of the economy of scale in transportation sector could not be rejected. Moreover, the coefficient of error correction term is equal to (-0.29), indicating a 29% adjustment toward equilibrium in each period, which It means, after imposing any shock in transportation production, it takes about three periods (years) to converge again to the long run trend.

In this study, the direct and indirect effects of transportation sector investment on the creation of value-added and jobs in the economy were studied. For this purpose, after estimating the relationships using ARDL method for the period of 1959-2014, the short-run, long-run, and error correction models estimated. In long-run estimation, the production elasticity of transportation sector relative to the capital is more than twice as large as non-transport sectors. According to these results, and the finding that 1 percent increase in the total value-added leads to 0.3 percent growth in the job creation in the economy, the effect of transport sector investment on the creation of total value-added and jobs reviewed. The results of the shock scenario simulation in the transport sector investment showed that one percentage increase in this variable generated an average of 0.235% growth in the economic value-added and a 0.07% increase in the number of created jobs during the simulated period. According to the nearly 10% share of transportation on the total value-added, this shows a significant effect. Therefore, given the significant effects of transportation in the economy, this sector has the relative ability to develop direct and indirect employment from the channel of production boost.

Usually price is one of the main factors which we use from it for control of natural gas demand in household sector. Asymmetric between demand and price is the main base of demand role but asymmetric responses of price and demand in longrun is a problem which ignorance it in estimation of demand function causes to problems. The aim of this paper is to survey asymmetric effects of natural gas price on it's demand in household sector and estimate long run and short run price and income elasticities of natural gas demand. In this paper, an asymmetric effect of natural gas price is surveyed by koyck model in 1991-2013. Results of this paper, reveal that effects of natural gas price on it's demand is not asymmetric in household sector. In this period, long run and short run price elasticities of natural gas demand are -0.87 and -0.48 short run and long run income elasticities of demand are 1.03 and 11.44.

Maritime transportation is the most important Iran’s trade routine with the world and Shahid Rajaee Port has the largest share of it. Trade studies generally focus on monetary values in macro level which is not directly applicable for port authorities that should handle this trade in tonnage. In this study, we have tried to develop an econometric model to relate trade in macro level to port demand in micro level. By this kind of modeling it is possible to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on port demand. In econometric estimations, ARDL technic based on seasonal time series from 1381 to the second quarter 1389 has been used and an error correction model has formed. Model behavioral equations include the non-oil exports of goods, demand for imports of goods and entrance demand functions by ship type. The results of model simulations show that a positive shock in GDP (achieving economic growth of 8 per cent) has the most important impact on absorption of non-oil ships to the port of Shahid Rajaee. Increase in oil revenues has a weak positive impact on the absorption of non-oil vessel to the port. Given the limited impact of Rial depreciation on export and negative effect on import, Rial depreciation reduces ship entrance demand to port. Finally, 10 percent improvement in port performance in servicing of incoming ships respect to competitors (reducing relative Ship Port Time), leads to 5.7% increase in absorption of bulk ships in comparison with 4.7%, 3.5% and 1.7% increase for general cargo, liquid bulk and container ships respectively. This reflects Shahid Rejaee port potential to attract more bulk vessels by performance improvement.

The sector of Industries and mines is one of the important sectors of Iran's economy. This sector consumes more than 23% of total energy consumption, and its production is dependant on energy input. Therefore, the policy of increase in energy price decreases the demand of energy as an intended result. However, this policy could have some side effects. In this paper, at first, energy demand in industries and mines sector has been estimated by two stage estimation approachs, and then by estimation of production and price function, a simulation model has been developed. In this simulation model, the effects of increasing energy price on energy consumption and value added in sector of industries and mines have been studied. More ever, the inflationary side effects of changes in energy price have been included. Based on simulation results, increase in the energy price in general could decrease energy consumption in the sector of industries and mines. It should be considered that the inflationary side effects of energy price increase could diminish energy consumption reduction. However, if the policy of increasing energy price, companied with two shocks of devaluation of national currency and liquidity increase, was realized as it was the case in Iran, the secondary inflationary cycle could wipe out the intended energy saving results of energy price policy, Hence, the steady state result of energy price policy could just be inflation.