Developing an Econometric Model to Simulate Ship Entrance Demand to Shahid Rejaee Port

Maritime transportation is the most important Iran’s trade routine with the world and Shahid Rajaee Port has the largest share of it. Trade studies generally focus on monetary values in macro level which is not directly applicable for port authorities that should handle this trade in tonnage. In this study, we have tried to develop an econometric model to relate trade in macro level to port demand in micro level. By this kind of modeling it is possible to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on port demand. In econometric estimations, ARDL technic based on seasonal time series from 1381 to the second quarter 1389 has been used and an error correction model has formed. Model behavioral equations include the non-oil exports of goods, demand for imports of goods and entrance demand functions by ship type. The results of model simulations show that a positive shock in GDP (achieving economic growth of 8 per cent) has the most important impact on absorption of non-oil ships to the port of Shahid Rajaee. Increase in oil revenues has a weak positive impact on the absorption of non-oil vessel to the port. Given the limited impact of Rial depreciation on export and negative effect on import, Rial depreciation reduces ship entrance demand to port. Finally, 10 percent improvement in port performance in servicing of incoming ships respect to competitors (reducing relative Ship Port Time), leads to 5.7% increase in absorption of bulk ships in comparison with 4.7%, 3.5% and 1.7% increase for general cargo, liquid bulk and container ships respectively. This reflects Shahid Rejaee port potential to attract more bulk vessels by performance improvement.