فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی زنان
پیاپی 55 (بهار 1391)

There are few theories that can explain social changes, especially total fertility, based on economic variables changes. Inglehart’s Cultural Revolution theory explains social changes that have been affected via economic variables. In this research, we forecast of total fertility of Iran based on the economic and social variables in three different economic scenarios includes; current trend continues, removal subsidies effects and prospect writ 2025. Our findings show that total fertility will decrease based on every economic scenario that is compatible with Inglehart’s Cultural Revolution theory.

The purpose of this paper is to identify factors that can influence the marriage interval to first birth. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey (IDHS) and survival analysis in combination with multilevel analysis, this paper examines determine macro and individual level factors associated with risk of first birth. According tofindings, the first birth timing has mostly been affected by individuallevel characteristics such as educational attainment and the age of marriage. The results of multilevel analysis confirm significant variation in risk of first birth within five years of marriage in provincial level. The observed difference between the provinces is not by the accident and it is a function of macro-level variables. However the macro level factors such as total fertility rate, prevalence of contraceptive use and female literacy rate do not explain differentials observed neither at the provincial level, nor individual level.

In Iran, population policy and planning have debated more about the dynamic of population growth and much less attention to the age structure of the population, its changes and consequences. Iran’s Fertility has declined significantly in during the past two decades. Consequently, the age structure of population is under transition. Changing age structure is offering a window of opportunity that is referred to as the demographic window. In during time of demographic window, that is temporal time, the working-age population bulges and the age dependency ratios declines. Demographic window offers a unique and golden opportunity for economic development, but exploit this opportunity is needed appropriate policies. This paper focuses on age structure transitions, demographic window and its economic outcomes. The paper begins with briefly overview of the demographic transition, then the recent and projected changes in Iran’s population age structure will be reviewed. After that, the paper examines demographic window and its linkages with the economic growth. Finally, it discusses policy implications to realize and exploit demographic window.

In this paper we examine changes occurred in Iran's population regarding evaluation of United Nations population projections during 1900-2006. In order to adapt United Nations population projections on the basis of Iran's condition, population studies and research center using census data in 2006 as base year, have evaluated United Nations population projection of Iran. The projection is on the basis of continuing current situation (low scenario of United Nations population projection that has been according to current trend and pattern of declining fertility) and the trend of suitable increasing in Iran's fertility level during 40 years ahead to 2 children for per mother. Findings indicate that if the Iran's population growth follows gradual or slow one, country's populatiowill reach 97 million in 1425 and the population growth will be positive. However, If Iran experience suitable trend of total fertility rate partly more than replacement level, we will never encounter continues growth of population, it can be also say that, growth rate of population will be lower than current growth rate and the age structure will have appropriate balance.

the main target groups of family planning programs, particularly regarding the birth control policies. During 1990th, fertility control policy in Iran was oriented mainly to women. This policy led to reducing fertility rates to replacement level, and transformed the demographic facet of rural and urban areas. Actually, it is more than one decade that Iranian families, including women, are experiencing low childbearing situation. The question is how women experience low childbearing and how they interpret their situation? Based on qualitative methodology, this paper is concerned with reconstructing the meaning system or inter-subjectivity which supports the low childbearing action among the Iranian Kurdish women in Saghez city in Kurdistan province. Grounded Theory is utilized to collecting, analyzing and interpreting data. This paper shows that self-protection is the core category of this inter-subjectivity regarding low childbearing action in this society. Itmeans that, currently and base on this research, women have a tendency to bear few children, because they like to protect themselves physically, socially and financially.

One of the government's duties is to explore and measure the population distribution and construction from quantitative and qualitative point of view in order to plan strategic policies to control and managing thesociety. To achieve such goal, future study methods for modeling dynamic systems can be used. The fluctuation of the dynamic model parameters and numerical results can be simulated and visualized usingproper simulation software to provide a clear view of the system for planners and executives. In this paper through such method, the effect of time which is presented as delay and acceleration of population policies implementation, on fertility rate and total population will be studied. The result of comparing three different statuses shows that for each 5 years delay in implementing short term policies, the probability of expected level of effectiveness will be decreased dramatically. Furthermore, the cost of implementing the same policies will be increased. This contrast is due to the effect of fertility factor which is currently estimated in its maximum level and will be declined as the time passes. Hence, the consequent of postponement in changing fertility behavior which is due to deferment in implementation of population policies will cause weaker results.