The Selection of Optimal Model of Time Series for Precipitation Parameter: A Case Study of Ravansar Synoptic Station

Precipitation is the most influential and important source of water and its estimation and forecast play an important role in planning and proper utilization of water resources، determining the major development policy of the country، and minimizing the damages caused by floods and drought. Using time series models can be helpful in order to modeling and forecasting precipitation data. Accordingly، in this study the precipitation modeling of Ravansar synoptic station during 1988 to 2009 was carried out using time series models. Comparison between different time series models was conducted based on AIC and SBC، and MSE criteria. Furthermore، for verification of results، the diagrams of residuals of the model were drawn. Thus، among the different fitted models، Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA (3،0،1) * (2،1،0) 12 model was confirmed as the optimal model.