Simulation of Climate Change Effect on Wheat Production In RainFed Conditions of Uremia

The occurrence of climate change via temporal and rainfall changes during future decades is inevitable. So, before programing for contrast with this phenomena, studying their interaction is necessary. Hence production of wheat (cv. Sardari) and 12 theorical genetic changed cultivars studied in Uremia during 31 years before and 26 years in future in rain fed conditions using of LARS-WG and SSM-Wheat models. Results for next years (2014-2040) indicated on increasing in mean of minimal and maximal temperatures (0.73 and 0.65 oC respectively) and decreasing in mean of rainfall from 1.2 mm/day to 0.98 mm/dam and diminishing in mean of daily radiation about 0.14 MJ.m-2.d which really is a climate change up to warming, changes in precipitation especially in range and distribution. Results of simulation of wheat production showed that the important effective factors in increasing of yield and harvest index are 20% increasing in time from sowing to seed filling beginning (vegetative growth) mid 20% decreasing in time from sowing to seed filling finishing(not contact of seed filling phase with drought of season end) and 20% increasing in RUE. The most grain yield and HI simulated in theatrical cultivars as: C1, C4, C6 and C9, so the most biomass obtained in C3, C8 and C9 cultivars. Thus we must attend to changes in precipitation range and distribution, so to optimal distribution between vegetative and generation phases with improvement of RUE if we want cultivate wheat in future because it could be the important agent which increase wheat yield in now and future conditions.