Forecasting and Comparison of Future Climate Change by Using of GCM Models under Different Scenarios in Talar Watershed of Mazandaran Province

The aim of this research is forecasting and comparison of future climate change by using of GCM model(General circulation model) under different climate scenario in Talar watershed of Mazandaran province. Pay attention to data in existence stations, for study of climate change phenomena in Talar watershed used LARS-WG5 model and 3 climate scenario A1B, A2, B1 and each in three emission sere,2011-2026, 2046-2061 and 2080-2095 by determination of base year 1992-2007(15 year duration) and applied weather data of Gharakhayl regional synoptic stations in Quaemshahr. Pay attention to this model is one of the best methods of statistical downscaling that is done the data produced in three phases of calibration , evaluation and development of meteorological data therefore have been criteria for research in study area. On the basis of this research, May and October month asset maximum precipitation changes, July and august asset intensive reduction changes specially in 2080-2095 future duration of study watershed area that results of this variation ,necessary for more attention in seasonal flood event in rainy month and also drought event ,water shortage in dry month in watershed study area. Also viewpoint of temperature June ,July, august and September by increasing temperature in the future duration and January ,February asset the minimum mean of future temperature simulation.