The Effect of Monetary Policy and Banking Credits on Gross Domestic Product in Iran: A Threshold VAR Approach

This paper using TVAR model and data from 1376Q1-1392Q4 examines the asymmetric impacts of monetary policy and banking credits on gross domestic Product in low and upper regimes in Iran Regarding the difference between the interest-free and conventional banking system and according to McCallum rule monetary base variable has been used as monetary policy index. In most studies about the nonlinear relationship between monetary policy and real economic activity threshold variables are about credit market condition, this paper instead of credit market conditions focuses on economic activity. Using R software the threshold vector autoregression model is estimated and generalized impulse response function are extracted. Results indicate that the impact of monetary policy and banking credits on GDP in low and upper regimes is completely different. In other words, the findings support the asymmetric impact of monetary policy and banking credits in Iran.