Scenario Planning the Effect of Foreign Gold Price and Oil Price on Financial Market with Using System Dynamics Approach

Internal factors and variables condition that are outside the range of the domestic economy, affected on stock price changes of the companies accepted in the stock exchange. In this regard, world prices of oil and gold as one of the powerful factors beyond the domestic economy can influence on many macroeconomic variables such as stock price index. In this study examines role and importance of macroeconomic variables such as oil prices, inflation, interest etc. and competing assets such as gold in predicting stock price index at Tehran Stock Exchange. For this purpose, it has used the system dynamics approach and related the financial, capital market, oil price and gold price data to investigate and simulate the effects of global oil and gold price changes on stock price index. The simulation was performed by using Vensim DSS software and the results of this study shown that changes in macroeconomic variables by economic policymakers will enhance the value of the stock market. In this study, it has used different scenarios for the effects of global oil price and global gold price changes on stock price fluctuations, so the results are showing that increase the global oil price and global gold price by 20% causes to increase the stock price index approximately 8.315%. It should be noted the immediate effect of global gold price changes on stock price index are more effective than the immediate effect of global oil price changes.