Scenario-Based Approach in Urban Development Modeling (Case Study Sari City)

The uncontrolled development of the city as a kind of risk arises. Drastic changes in land use around and inside the city limits of good land degradation and environmental pollution that can threaten human health and the environment. This research have taken place to predict the development of the City of Sari and surrounding villages and to achieve the perfect result from satellite imagery of Landsat series (years 1365 and 1394) and layers of information such as distance to fault, distance from the river, distance from Energy lines, sensitivity of rock units, distance from roads, urban development modeling with logistic regression model was used. With using ROC the validity of the model was calculated 0.7603 that confirms the model probability results validity to predict urban growth. After mapping, the possibility of urban development and population growth prediction, two scenarios with historical approaches considering the normal development of the Environmental Approach to conserve forest, garden and water levels for the study area up to the year 1404 were defined and accordingly urban development in the direction lands was limited. According to calculations inside the city of sari within an area of 481.88 hectares and a population of over 50,507 people and in a range of 151.36 hectares outside the city a population of over 12805 people in 1404 will be added. According to results, the management needs to necessary urban and rural administrative measures to comply with environmental issues for urban and rural areas that will be added in the next 10 years.