Investigation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for N2O Gas Emissions in Iran by ARDL Model

Climate change, such as the increase in hazardous N2O greenhouse gas, is always associated with various economic and developmental consequences. The environmental Kuznets curve indicates that the increase in greenhouse gases emissions until a country's development is directly related to that country's level of production and inversely related after development. The purpose of this study is to investigate the environmental Kuznets curve for N2O greenhouse gas emissions in Iran.

The method of answering this problem is quantitative and through econometric analysis of time series data in the period 1960 to 2017 and the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) has been used to study and analyze variables.

The results of the dynamic model show us that the area under cultivation has a negative effect and gross domestic product (GDP) and exports have a positive effect on N2O emissions. GDP2 also has a sign opposite to its root, and the inverse quadratic relation is established. As a result, the assumption of the Kuznets curve in Iran isn’t rejected.

The maximum point of the chart for Iran in terms of GDP per capita will be around $7,500. Therefore, if we go beyond this amount, N2O emissions will decrease. At present, the country's GDP per capita is about $6,900 and we are on the upward trajectory of the Kuznets Curve. As a result, reducing N2O emissions will have a negative impact on Iran's growth. Thus, it isn’t possible to implement some policies to reduce these greenhouse gas emissions without major consequences in various sectors of the economy