Identification of climate sanctuaries of wild goat (Capra aegagrus, Erxleben, 1777) in the future climate of Iran for conservation

The human threats have had many negative effects on the population of Iranian ungulates in recent decades. However, climate change can increase the vulnerability of these species by doubling the current habitat conditions. The purpose of this study, investigate of the effect of climate change on the favorable habitats for the wild goat (Capra aegagrus), the current species displacement rate and, How the future distribution of this species under two climate scenarios, optimistic and pessimistic (RCP126 and RCP585) in time efficiency of 2061 to 2080 throughout Iran using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method. In this study, we use 32 habitat variables in four groups of topographic maps, climate, land use, and land cover. The results of this study show that the favorable habitats of this species in Iran now comprise 30% of the total habitats of the country. However, this amount of habitat will be reduced to 26% in the future, and in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, 10.26% and 9.73% of the present habitats will be destroyed in the future, respectively, Also the results show that factors of altitude, slope, and latitude have a significant effect on the rate of reduction or conservation of desirable habitats of this species so that the results of modeling show the distribution of this species in the western and northwestern parts of Iran.