Predicting potential climate change effects on the geographical range of Agropyron intermedium L. in Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiari province

Climate change is one of the main determinants of plant species redistribution and biodiversity loss. This study aims to predict the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Agropyron intermedium in Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiari province as a part of Central Zagros, Iran. The presence points of studied species were recorded from our field surveys in the studied area. In this study, we used the ensemble predictions based on five species distribution models. The future projections were made for the year 2070 with three scenarios SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, and two general circulation models GFDL-ESM4 and MRI-ESM2-0. According to the results, Random forest model and the generalized boosted model were recognized as the most reliable models for predicting species distribution. The most effective variables in the suitability of the A. intermedium species habitat were, respectively, elevation, Precipitation of wettest month, and slope. According to the finding, about 21.26% of the study area for A. intermedium species have had suitable habitats. The decline of suitable habitats of A. intermedium will be 36.06% to 63.20% under the GFDL-ESM4 general circulation model and 36.69% to 65.17% under MRI- ESM2 general circulation model due to climate change. The results also indicated that climate change will alter the range size of studied species and will probably shift to higher elevations in the future. The results of this study can be used to protect the habitat of the range plant species, as well as its rehabilitation and restoration.