Futures Studies of Regional Spatial Structure in Iran (Horizon 2040)

Iran's spatial structure indicates the existence of imbalances in the territory. The message of imbalance is socio-economic and spatial inefficiency that has led to polar development. However, internal imbalances in the spatial structure of different regions mostly indicate the effect of economic and social behaviors on the formation of the spatial structure of the country. Nowadays, understanding the structure governing the space system has forced researchers to use quantitative and qualitative models and methods to determine the regularity and adapt it to space. Scenario-based planning is one of these methods that were used in long-term future research. This research is considered as applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The proposed scenarios are exploratory in terms of pattern. The key factors required for the research were extracted from field and documentary studies to be provided to experts. Non-probability sampling method of available type was used to select experts. Interaction matrices were used for scoring and MicMac software was used for data analysis. Findings showed that political and spatial concentration of power, management and planning focus, top-down planning are the three key factors. Also, the statuses of the scenarios indicate that the first scenario of Iran's spatial structure is the most desirable. In the second scenario, the desired states are superior to the static and critical states. In the third scenario, the effective factors are in the middle ground. Finally, in the fourth scenario, which is opposite to the first scenario, unfavorable situations are superior to intermediate and desirable situations. Despite efforts to lay the groundwork for the first scenario, the results show that it has not been successful to date.