نشریه چشم انداز شهرهای آینده
پیاپی 1 (بهار 1399)

The rapid pace of urbanization and its effects call for the efforts of the United Nations Housing Authority to create a better urban environment and adequate housing. One of the most important steps in achieving this vision is to hold conferences over a period of 20 years, with a view to achieving new urban agendas. In the proposed plans, the discussion of housing as one of the main factors has always been considered by planners and in order to improve the situation of settlements in each period, new strategies are used. This descriptive-analytical study, while examining the background and objectives of Habitat conferences, presents the principles and program of their implementation. Then, based on the extracted framework, a comparative comparison of policies and action plans in the form of the main axes of sustainable development is done. Finally, in order to summarize and evaluate strategic plans in specific formats, solutions to improve the performance of plans in the field of implementation are presented. The results showed that in terms of sustainability, economic competitiveness, urban planning and housing, there has been a change in approach towards holism. Finally, although there is no understanding of the emerging conditions and challenges of cities, urbanization opportunities should be considered as the engine of economic, social and environmental development. There have to be an urban mindset to mobilize global communities to focus on all aspects of the settlement, from the smallest rural areas to metropolitan areas. This requires futuristic thinking about the challenges of human habitation at the micro and macro levels.

The model of state-city governance is a network as the vision of Iranian cities in the 2050s, which is governed in a semi-self-governing manner. The hypothesis of the present article is that if due to the development of new technologies, citizen participation is expanded in a network, and then the model of passive obedient state-city governance can be transformed into a model of networked state-city. To realize such a vision, one must consider past trends, current relationships and future plans. In examining past trends, three major historical trends; There has been a general trend of self-governing state-city, semi-self-governing state-city and obedient state-city from ancient times to the present day, which understanding governance in these state-city leads to the recognition and accumulation of history to draw the desired landscape. On the other hand, future stat-cities require an understanding of geographical space within a paradigm shift. In order to strategize the mentioned perspective, the method of the present study has been formulated qualitatively and based on the retrospective technique, and six strategic steps in achieving the vision have been drawn in it, which are in 5-year time intervals (from 2045 to 2020) were formulated in the form of different development approaches. After that, the mission, which is the identity and goals of policy-making institutions in this regard, is determined. The results showed that in order to achieve a networked state-city perspective, the elements contained in the paradigm shift have to be understood, which, in turn, led to changes in governance, politics, economics, education and technology. Finally, with the Urban Sustainability Plan as the goal of the research mission, some fundamental values ​​are introduced as continuous ethical principles to be considered by policy makers in order to connect the organizational mission to the vision.

Iran's spatial structure indicates the existence of imbalances in the territory. The message of imbalance is socio-economic and spatial inefficiency that has led to polar development. However, internal imbalances in the spatial structure of different regions mostly indicate the effect of economic and social behaviors on the formation of the spatial structure of the country. Nowadays, understanding the structure governing the space system has forced researchers to use quantitative and qualitative models and methods to determine the regularity and adapt it to space. Scenario-based planning is one of these methods that were used in long-term future research. This research is considered as applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of research method. The proposed scenarios are exploratory in terms of pattern. The key factors required for the research were extracted from field and documentary studies to be provided to experts. Non-probability sampling method of available type was used to select experts. Interaction matrices were used for scoring and MicMac software was used for data analysis. Findings showed that political and spatial concentration of power, management and planning focus, top-down planning are the three key factors. Also, the statuses of the scenarios indicate that the first scenario of Iran's spatial structure is the most desirable. In the second scenario, the desired states are superior to the static and critical states. In the third scenario, the effective factors are in the middle ground. Finally, in the fourth scenario, which is opposite to the first scenario, unfavorable situations are superior to intermediate and desirable situations. Despite efforts to lay the groundwork for the first scenario, the results show that it has not been successful to date.

Over the past few decades, the world has witnessed major economic, social, technical, and environmental changes that have profoundly affected patterns of urbanization, human activities, and lifestyles; As the challenges of globalization, knowledge-based economics, network society, climate change, information and communication technologies, transportation technologies, digital divide, rapid urbanization, and increasing urbanization have become major issues for researchers, planners, policymakers, and managers. In this regard, knowledge-based city is one of the new concepts in the field of urban studies, which has been proposed due to the growing problems of cities and the need to manage and develop this system based on knowledge. A knowledge-based city is a development approach whose ultimate goal is to achieve sustainable urban development and economic progress. These cities can use knowledge to find effective solutions to problems and create new opportunities in the field of global competition. In addition, a knowledge-based approach will influence future planning theories. Therefore, this article presents the traces of the knowledge-based approach in planning theories in a qualitative way after expressing the influential currents on the emergence of the concept of knowledge-based urban development and introducing its features. The results show that just as rational planning and holistic planning were influenced by capitalist economics, there is a trace of knowledge-based economics in participatory planning; thus, the role of the planner has changed from the omniscient to the facilitator, and the economic foundations of planning have shifted from the capitalist economy to the knowledge-based economy. Therefore, future planning theories seem to be moving towards a knowledge-based planning approach.

Today, the category of housing is one of the leading sectors in any economy, to which, in addition to the profound social and cultural effects, it is also economically important and acts as an engine of growth and development. This sector strongly influences changes in GDP and economic fluctuations by creating economic growth and creating employment in the construction sector and related sectors, by influencing consumption and investment expenditures. In this regard, housing cooperatives are also components of social housing policies and in some industrialized countries have been successful in improving the housing situation, but in developing countries, cooperatives do not play an important role in the housing sector. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of identifying possible and favorable futures for housing demand through employee and worker housing cooperatives in Sanandaj. The method of this research is in terms of targeting and type is applied and descriptive-exploratory respectively. Data collection was performed using environmental monitoring method and Delphi technique and sampling is non-probabilistic and purposeful. Finally, two key uncertainties are identified and in the form of a matrix of four scenarios (cooperative paradise scenario, opportunity burning scenario, sluggish market scenario, half-burner scenario) for the housing demand situation through housing cooperatives in Sanandaj in the future can be imagined.

Dysfunctional fabrics are areas of urban spaces that, compared to other areas of the city, have lagged behind the development and evolutionary cycle of life and have become the focus of urban problems and inadequacies. In the age of information technology and the development of communication networks, which is associated with many uncertainties and innovations; The urban planning system, which is based on a systemic approach, does not have the necessary ability to respond to the problems of dysfunctional urban fabric. Therefore, it is necessary to have appropriate scientific and practical planning for future developments in dysfunctional contexts that is responsive in the future. In recent years, the futurist approach, as a methodological method, taking into account the past and present, clarifies the future perspective for us. This approach helps us prepare for the possible and the unpredictable by identifying the factors that affect the future of these tissues. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to identify the key variables affecting the future of dysfunctional fabric and to investigate the relationships between variables and how they affect each other in the horizon of 1414. Accordingly, the present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical based on the research method. In order to analyze the variables, according to the nature of futures research, cross-impact analysis in MicMac software has been used. The results showed that the most key factors affecting the future of dysfunctional fabrics of Akbarabad neighborhood of Yazd in the horizon of 1414, respectively, includes tourism, social and civic institutions, migration, income and savings and investment attractiveness.