A Model for Developing Robust Adaptive Strategies under Uncertainty

Most strategic programs assume the future using various methods, and develop a static program based on trend extrapolation from a single future that provides acceptable results in a small set of possible futures. If the future turns out to be different from the assumed ones, the program may fail. In addition to the high uncertainty in predicting the future, planning conditions also change over time. To address this issue, this study seeks to design a model for developing adaptable strategies that can both provide satisfactory performance in multiple diverse futures (Robustness) and adapt to new conditions. The foundations of this research are interpretive, the approach is qualitative, and it is a developmental-applied study. In this study, the literature on developing strategies under uncertainty is examined using the meta-analysis method. Accordingly, after reviewing the literature, 39 concepts (themes) and 10 elements were extracted. Finally, using the identified elements and concepts and the literature of the study, the final model for developing robust adaptable strategies under uncertainty was designed.