Quantitative scenarios of electric energy consumption in 2031: a case study in Isfahan

Today, it is impossible to imagine a world without electrical energy and as the time goes by electrical energy will become more and more important. In the past few decades, the amount of energy consumption has doubled, among which the share of developing countries such as Iran is higher than developed countries. Therefore, analyzing the behavior of electrical energy consumption and the variables affecting it can give a proper vision of the future and make decision-makers and managers ready to face possible challenges. In this manuscript, firstly the data concerning the electricity consumption in agricultural, industrial and residential sectors were used to forecast the base consumption scenario for Isfahan in 2031. Second, a list of trend-defying events which can potentially affect the base scenario and the probability of their occurrence were made through a scoping review and expert interviews. Finally, probabilistic modified trend method was deployed to create three scenarios for electric energy consumption of Isfahan in 2031. These scenarios are: 1) there is electrical energy but not much 2) get used to black-outs and 3) essentially green. Narrative scenario can help decision makers to decrease their mental distance with future possibilities, result in strategic decisions and galvanize action.