فصلنامه پژوهش های پولی - بانکی
پیاپی 36 (تابستان 1397)

In recent years, the effect of monetary policy on Macroeconomic Variables, and examining the role of central bank independence have been a challenging debate to which it has not produced any similar results in different studies. Accordingly, this study aims at examining the effect of the shock caused by monetary policy on macroeconomic variable considering the index of central bank independence. In this study, according to existing theoretical principles, we estimate Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) which contain Monetary Policy Variables (legal reserve rate & interest rate), index of central bank independence, index of interest rate, inflation rate and oil price and use Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition for interpreting the results. In this order, we use Iran’s macroeconomic database from 1978 to 2016. This study came to a conclusion that the increase of legal reserve rate has, on the one side, meaningfully reduced economic growth rate, and, on the other side, central bank independence contributes to Variance Decomposition of inflation and economic growth rates. Additionally, central bank independence affects economic growth rate positively, and inflation rate negatively.

​In this paper, a multi-layered network model of the banking system is designed to explain the systemic risk of the banking system of Iran. This model shows how the dependence of the balance sheet structure of banks results in the crisis from one bank to another, and ultimately causes a crisis in the economy as a whole. It is assumed that the banking system is composed of banks with their balance sheet structure dependent on each other. To estimate the systemic risk of the banking system, the daily index data of banks indexes are used between December 2008 and April 2018 and the value at risk of returning daily index data is estimated using an exponential GARCH model. The daily returns of the stock market index are taken as representative of the real economy, Quantile regression is estimated at two levels of 50% and 1%. In the following, based on the estimated parameters in quantum regression and also on the basis of the CoVar Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016), the risk of the banking system is estimated. The results show that the average ΔCoVaR is estimated at -0.8587, which is consistent with negative expectations and represents a high systemic risk of the banking system.

Considering the lack of attention to the appropriate patterns for implementing the Law for Usury (Interest) Free Banking in Iran, as well as a better understanding of the dimensions and components affecting the establishment of Interest free banking and the relationships between them, the main objective of this research is to provide a model for the establishing the interest Free banking. In this regard, the paper works on a hybrid approach and using the mixed research methodology to identify and extract the most important dimensions and components affecting the implementation of free interest banking and examine the relationships between them in an operational model. The initial dimensions of interest-free banking including 9 dimensions (the results of qualitative data) and the final model of the interest-free banking (the results of quantitative data) consisted of 12 main dimensions. Some of the most important of these are the strategic infrastructure; the jurisprudential council and the religious supervision and the process and mechanisms for the implementation of the Islamic contracts. Also, these dimensions, based on the modeling of the influential factors emphasized in strategy implementation models, are categorized into four main axes: Contextual, Structural, Process, and Behavioral variables. Also, based on the levels of influence, each of these variables in the model is presented at three levels of governance, system, and operation.

This paper aims to test the hypothesis of consumer price index convergence among Iran provinces over the period from 2003 to 2016 by implementing cluster analysis and panel unit root test. Studying the price index convergence is important in several ways. First, CPI convergence is equivalent in some ways to the convergence of the cost of living across the provinces because CPI is the most commonly used, while not perfect, measure of the cost of living. Second, rejection of price convergence may imply the existence of probable structural problems or significant economic development differences among provinces. Third, price convergence issue could be viewed as a part of the comprehensive plan of balanced regional development. The results of the cluster analysis show that there is no evidence of overall convergence among all provinces. However, the results suggest that there are three convergence clubs and one divergent club (Tehran province). The clubs consist of 19,3, and 4 provinces. Lack of overall price convergence among provinces is also confirmed by panel unit root test. Moreover, the findings indicate the price divergence is related to the prices common factor. So government policies have a more important role in price divergence compared to the local shocks. The estimated half-life of convergence is approximately 17 months.

This article aims to study the effect of banking features and relationships when companies suffer from financial distress. A question is addressed in this paper is that: are the chances of recovery or failure of a company experiencing financial distress associated with its banking relationships? To this end, data of 105 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) is collected from 2007 to 2015. The database is analyzed by using the Probit regression model and EVIEWS. The results of the model estimations show that “The share of customers with overdue loans” is the most effective factor in corporate financial distress. Then, the “sanctions” variable is found to be the second most effective factor in this regard. Among the bank-firm relationship variables, “switching the main bank” is the most important factor affecting the financial distress. Also, Firm size is the most effective factor among the firm-specific variables.

One of the complicated issues in banking law is the errors and mistakes that may occur in the course of banks and interbank payments. A human or computer error in the payment process may make the payment impossible, delayed, or unjust enrichment. That is, the payment was made to a person who did not qualify for it. In our country's law, only a few regulations have addressed the issues of disruption and mistakes in bank payments. This situation is relatively similar in other countries. It can be argued that a large part of the laws governing computer errors or mistakes and fraud in payments have been developed based on the precedent of courts and judicial and arbitral awards. In Iran, this practice has been rarely discussed. Due to this, we will inevitably have to look at the law of other countries.