فهرست مطالب

جغرافیا - پیاپی 79 (زمستان 1402)

فصلنامه جغرافیا
پیاپی 79 (زمستان 1402)

  • تاریخ انتشار: 1402/11/23
  • تعداد عناوین: 10
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  • برومند صلاحی*، وحید خجسته غلامی صفحات 1-20
    افت و خیز دما کم وبیش تحت تاثیر دورپیوندها می باشد. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی نقش هم زمان دورپیوندهای نوسان اطلس شمالی و نوسان شمالگان با نوسانات شبه دوسالانه بر دمای فصل زمستان در ایران است. بدین منظور از داده های دمایی 100 ایستگاه هواشناسی در دوره آماری 2019-1988 استفاده شد. ضرایب همبستگی میان داده های دورپیوندی QBO، NAO و AO با دمای ماهانه محاسبه شد. سپس حالات ممکن برای رخداد هم زمان الگوهای دورپیوند تعیین شد و بی هنجاری دمایی برای حالات تعیین شده با ترسیم نمودار و نقشه در محیط GIS تحلیل شد. نتایج نشان داد که ارتباط معکوس و معنی داری بین فازهای مثبت نوسانات شبه دوسالانه با دمای ماه فوریه در اغلب مناطق شمالی و غربی وجود دارد بطوریکه بیشترین ضریب همبستگی در ایستگاه ایلام به مقدار 81/0- محاسبه گردید. همچنین ارتباط معکوس و معنی داری بین دورپیوندهای NAO و به ویژه AO با دمای نیمه شمالی و غربی بخصوص در ماه های ژانویه و فوریه مشاهده گردید. هم زمانی رخداد فازهای منفی (مثبت) NAO و AO با فازهای منفی (مثبت) QBO موجب وقوع دمای بیشتر از نرمال (نرمال و کمتر از نرمال) در نیمه غربی (شرقی) می شود. بطوریکه گرم ترین زمستان های دوره ی آماری در هنگام رخداد هم زمان فازهای منفی NAO، AO و QBO اتفاق افتاده است. از طرفی رخداد هم زمان فازهای خنثای QBO با فازهای مثبت NAO و AO موجب وقوع دمای نرمال و کمتر از نرمال در اغلب مناطق به جز بخش های جنوبی و جنوب شرقی می شود در صورتیکه بر خلاف این حالت، هم زمانی فازهای خنثای QBO با فازهای منفی NAO و AO موجب عدم رخداد ناهنجاری شدید دمایی شده و احتمال وقوع دمای بیشتر از نرمال با شدت بالا بعید به نظر می رسد.
    کلیدواژگان: ایران، نوسانات شبه دوسالانه، دمای زمستانه، NAO، AO
  • حبیب الله فصیحی*، طاهر پریزادی صفحات 21-37

    سنجش کیفیت محیط زندگی شهری اولین مرحله در اداره کردن و مدیریت آن است. هدف این تحقیق، ارزیابی کیفیت محیط شهری در چهار محله از منطقه 17 شهرداری تهران به عنوان نمونه هایی از بافت های ناکارآمد جنوب شهرتهران است. در این زمینه، 55 شاخص مورد استفاده قرار گرفته که داده های 29 شاخص از اسناد آماری و منابع مکتوب به دست آمده و بقیه با پیمایش کسب شده اند. نمونه آماری بنا به مدل کوکران به تعداد 378 سرپرست خانوار از روی جامعه آماری 28235 خانوار ساکن محلات تعیین شده است. داده های پیمایشی با ابزار پرسشنامه گردآوری شده اند. داده های دسته نخست، با توجه به رقم های استاندارد، با دامنه ارقام 5-1 انطباق یافته و با داده های پیمایشی هم سو و هم مقیاس شده اند. سطح کیفیت محیط برای هر شاخص به صورت درصدی از شرایط مطلوب محاسبه شده و مبنای تحلیل قرار گرفته است. یافته ها دلالت بر وضعیت نامطلوب کیفیت محیط در محلات مورد مطالعه دارند. وضعیت نسبی بهتر از آن 11 شاخص محیط زیستی است که تقریبا نیمی از شرایط مطلوب در آنها مشهود است. کالبد محلات همه از نظر تخصیص کاربری های عمومی و خدماتی، کاستی دارند. محله مقدم پایین ترین و محله بلورسازی بالاترین رقم کیفیت محیط را در تمامی ابعاد دارا هستند. برای ارتقاء کیفیت محیط تسریع در نوسازی بافت با تسهیل مقررات و استفاده از فضای آزاد شده از با به زیربردن خط های آهن برون شهری که در حال حاضر معارضات قضایی دارد و نیز بهزیر بردن بخش باقی مانده از خطوط ریلی که از محلات گذر می کنند، توصیه می گردد.

    کلیدواژگان: کیفیت محیط، ارزیابی محیط، بافت ناکارآمد، تهران
  • حمدالله سجاسی قیداری، ولی الله نظری*، مهدی معصومی جشن صفحات 39-62

    بیان مساله: 

    توسعه پایدار از موضوعات مهم در دنیای امروز جهت دستیابی به رشد کشورها تلقی میشود که در سطح جهان و کشورهای رشد یافته توجه جدی به آن می گردد و از این رو ، امروزه جهت دستیابی به پارادایم توسعه ی پایدار روستایی، برنامه ریزان روستایی بیش از هر چیز بر توانمندسازی گروه های هدف (فقیران، زنان بی سرپرست، کارگران بی زمین، کشاورزان خرده پا) تاکید دارند. به طوری که برای مبارزه با فقر و نابرابری های درآمدی و توانمندسازی اقشار جامعه روستایی، سازمانها و نهادهای رفاهی متعددی در قالب راهبردهای حمایتی ایجاد شده که از جمله آنها فعالیتهای نهاد خیریه کمیته امداد است.

    هدف

    در این راستا هدف تحقیق حاضر ارزیابی اثرات توانمندسازانه فعالیتهای کارآفرینانه اجتماعی نهاد خیریه کمیته امداد در بین مدد جویان تحت پوشش در مناطق روستایی شهرستان بوانات، استان فارس می باشد.

    روش

    این تحقیق به روش توصیفی- تحلیلی انجام شده است. جامعه آماری تحقیق حاضر، شامل خانوارهای روستایی، تحت پوشش در شهرستان بوانات میباشد، که با استفاده از فرمول کوکران تعداد 128 خانوار به عنوان جامعه نمونه تعیین گردید. برای تحقق اهداف مورد نظر، ضمن مطالعات اسنادی، طیف گسترده ای از شاخص ها با ابعاد خودتعیینی، اعتماد به نفس، شایستگی، تاثیر و معناداری تعیین و در چارچوب مطالعات میدانی (تکمیل پرسشنامه ها و فرم های مشاهدات میدانی) مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. همچنین برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از آزمون های کندال، اسپیرمن و T تک نمونه ای در نرم افزار SPSS استفاده گردیده است. یافته های پژوهش موید آن است که، میزان اثرات توانمندسازانه فعالیتهای کارآفرینانه اجتماعی نهاد خیریه کمیته امداد در تمامی ابعاد مورد بررسی بالاتر از میانه ی نظری (3) است.نتایج آزمون ضریب همبستگی اسپیرمن نشان داد که، بین ابعاد خودتعیینی، شایستگی و تاثیر و متغیرهای میزان درآمد ماهانه خانوارها و سطح تحصیلات رابطه مثبت و معنی داری در سطح 05/0 درصد وجود دارد.

    کلیدواژگان: کارآفرینی اجتماعی، توانمندسازی، کمیته امداد، مناطق روستایی، شهرستان بوانات
  • سید محمود علوی، بهادر زارعی*، یاشار ذکی، سید موسی حسینی صفحات 63-84

    استان بوشهر به علل مختلف از جمله افزایش جمعیت، فرایند صنعتی شدن، کمبود بارش، تداوم خشکسالی و برداشت بی رویه از منابع آب با چالش های هیدروپلیتیکی روبرو است. پژوهش حاضر در صدد ارایه الگوی برازش چالش های هیدروپلیتیکی پیرامون امنیت اقتصادی استان بوشهر است. روش این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی، از نظر ماهیت اکتشافی و از نظر داده ترکیبی است، به این ترتیب که داده های کیفی پژوهش از طریق واکاوی متون و رجوع به خبرگان به وسیله ابزار مصاحبه نیمه ساختار یافته که از طریق روش نمونه گیری نظری انتخاب شده بودند گردآوری گردید. در فاز کمی پژوهش، داده ها با استفاده از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته به کمک 165 نفر از کارشناسان حوزه آب و جغرافیای استان با استفاده از روش نمونه گیری خوشه ای چند مرحله ای انتخاب شده بودند، جمع آوری گردید. تجزیه و تحلیل این پژوهش در دو بخش کیفی و کمی صورت گرفته است. در بخش کیفی از تحلیل مضمون و از طریق فرایند کدگذاری نظری در سه مرحله کدگذاری باز، کدگذاری محوری و کدگذاری گزینشی انجام شده است. در بخش کمی با استفاده از نرم افزارهای SPSS و Smart-PLS در دو بخش تحلیل توصیفی و تحلیل استنباطی داده ها انجام شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش در بخش کیفی نشان می دهد که دو نوع چالش هیدروپلیتیکی برون استانی و درون استانی تاثیرگذار بر امنیت اقتصادی استان، قابل تبیین است، و در بخش کمی نشان می دهد که مدل باز تولید شده تجربی از برازش و همانندی نسبتا مطلوبی با مدل مفهومی برخوردار است. زیرا نیکویی برازش (GOF) برای مدل پیشتهادی پژوهش برابر با 0/198 بوده است.

    کلیدواژگان: چالش های هیدروپلیتیکی، نیکویی برازش، امنیت اقتصادی، منابع و مصارف آب، استان بوشهر
  • مصطفی مظاهری، حسن کامران دستجردی، کیومرث یزدان پناه درو*، محمود واثق صفحات 85-100
    روابط بین بازیگران سیاسی در نظام جهانی از عوامل گوناگونی متاثر است. بررسی نظریات اندیشمندان مختلف حاکی از آن است که روابط قدرتها و کشورها براساس متغیرهای زیادی شکل می گیرد. عناصر جغرافیایی و ژیوپلیتیکی از بسترهای مهم شکل گیری روابط ژیوپلیتیک،در سطوح منطقه ای،فرامنطقه ای و جهانی هستند، لذا اهمیت روابط ژیوپلیتیکی در پیشبرد اهداف و سیاستهای کشورها و مناطق جغرافیایی انکار ناپذیر است چون نحوه تاثیر گذاری و بهره مندی کشورها از تحولات پیرامونی خود، علاوه بر قدرت ملی و اوضاع منطقه ای آنها، تا میزان بسیار زیادی مبتنی بر واقعیت های جغرافیایی و ژیوپلیتیکی، نوع روابط و کیفیت تعاملات آنها با سایر بازیگران بستگی دارد. با توجه به چنین اهمیتی، مقاله حاضر با روش تحلیلی-تبیینی و رویکرد انتقادی، ضمن بیان مولفه های موجود در نظریات ذکر شده، به دنبال شناسایی و بررسی کارکرد عوامل جغرافیایی و ژیوپلیتیکی جدید در شکل گیری انواع روابط ژیوپلیتیکی و ارایه مدل جامع برای تبیین الگو روابط ژیوپلیتیک است،جهت شناسایی این مولفه ها و تببین مدل جامع برای ارایه الگوی روابط ژیوپلیتیک، نظریه های اندیشمندان گوناگون(دوازده اندیشمند) که در زمان های مختلف بیان شده است مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت که مشخص شد حداقل بیش از ده شاخص در شکل دهی روابط ژیوپلیتیک در سطوح منطقه ای،پیرامونی و جهانی،موثر هستند، نتایج یافته های پژوهش بیانگر این نکته است که عوامل متنوعی در شکل گیری روابط ژیوپلیتیک نقش دارند که علاوه بر شرایط جغرافیایی و ژیواستراتژیکی، بر مولفه های ژیواکونومیک،ژیوپلیتیک منابع،ژیوپلیتیک هویت،ژیوپلیتیک گردشگری، جهانی شدن و ژیوپلیتیک فضای مجازی، بین مناطق و کشورها تاکید دارند.
    کلیدواژگان: عوامل جغرافیایی و ژئوپلیتیکی، روابط ژئوپلیتیک، منطقه ای، فرامنطقه ای، جهانی
  • شیوا گنجیان، نصرالله مولائی هشجین*، آتوسا بیگدلی صفحات 93-107
    پژوهش حاضر با هدف تبیین؛ میزان تنوع بخشی به فعالیت های اقتصادی در افزایش تاب آوری اقتصادی و اجتماعی روستاهای گردشگرپذیر شهرستان رشت در برابر بیماری کووید-19، انجام شده است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی است و از لحاظ ماهیت و روش شناسی توصیفی - تحلیلی می باشد، همچنین به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات از از نرم افزار SPSS و GIS استفاده شده است. ویروس کرونا در اوایل ژانویه 2020 توسط سازمان بهداشت جهانی در کشور چین گزارش شد. این ویروس به سرعت در منطقه ووهان چین گسترش یافت. در پی بحران شیوع کرونا ویروس در نقاط مختلف جهان، شیوع آن به طور رسمی در تاریخ 29 بهمن 1398 توسط وزارت بهداشت، درمان و آموزش پزشکی تایید شد. در کشور ایران نیز با شیوع ویروس کرونا، شمار گردشگران90 درصد نیز نسبت به سال های گذشته با کاهش روبه رو شد. گردشگری در همه ی شهرها و روستاهای ایران در دوران کرونا خسارت های جبران ناپذیر زیادی را به بار آورده است که بیشترین برآورد خسارات به روستاهای گردشگرپذیر مربوط بوده است. نتایج آزمون های تی تک نمونه ای و همبستگی اسپیرمن نشان داد، تنوع بخشی در فعالیت های اقتصادی در سطح معناداری 000/0، تاثیر زیادی در افزایش تاب آوری اقتصادی و اجتماعی روستاهای گردشگرپذیر دارد. همچنین به منظور دسته بندی میزان تاب آوری اقتصادی و اجتماعی در هر یک از بخش های شهرستان رشت با تمرکز بر تنوع فعالیت های اقتصادی، از انحراف معیار ، استفاده شد، نتایج نشان داد، وضعیت تاب آوری اقتصادی-اجتماعی پس از ایجاد تنوع فعالیت های اقتصادی در تمامی بخش های مورد مطالعه شهرستان رشت از دیدگاه اعضای شورا و دهیاران، مطلوب می باشد.
    کلیدواژگان: تنوع بخشی به فعالیت های اقتصادی، تاب آوری اقتصادی-اجتماعی، روستاهای گردشگرپذیر، شهرستان رشت، کووید 19
  • پیمان گودرزی، محمدرضا پورغلامی سروندانی*، بهمن فصیحی صفحات 109-133

    میزان جرایم شهری به اندازه و درجه رشد شهر ارتباط دارد. بنابراین، شناسایی نقاط آلوده و جرم خیز، مقابله و مبارزه با جرایم سرقت از اهمیت بسزایی در ایجاد نظم و امنیت در این کانون ها و در نتیجه ارتقاءکیفیت زندگی شهروندان را دارد.بررسی توزیع فضایی کانونهای جرم خیز، مهمترین ویژگیهای کالبدی یا عوامل مکانی موثر، ترغیب کننده یا تسهیل کننده جرایم ارتکابی و تشخیص عوامل محیطی، عوامل زمینه ای با بهره گیری از آمارهای فضایی از اهداف این تحقیق می باشد. پژوهش حاضر از نوع کمی محسوب می شود. در روش اسنادی از منابع مکتوب و اخذ آمار سرقت از پلیس استفاده شد. جهت بررسی انحراف احتمالی و نوع و زمان تغییر در داده های جرایم سرقت از آزمون من- کندال استفاده شده است. جهت برآورد نمودن شیب واقعی یک روند در یک سری زمانی، استفاده از روش ناپارامتریک سنس بکارگرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد با تحلیل روند سری سرقت در منطقه 14 شهر تهران بواسطه بافت های فرسوده و قدیمی، مشکلات ناشی از معابر شهری، وجود بن بست های تاریک و مکان های خلوت در منطقه باعث شده که در فصل بهار و تابستان اغلب شهروندان این منطقه به دلیل وجود هوای مطبوع در ساعات عصرگاهی تا پاسی از شب از منازل خارج و در اماکن تجاری و تفرجگاه ها حضور دارند. بخصوص از اواخر فصل بهار و در تابستان با شروع فصل مسافرت با خالی بودن منزل باعث افزایش سرقت منزل می گردد .با آغاز فصل گرما از اواخر بهار و به ویژه در فصل تابستان شب هنگام خصوصا در اماکن خصوصی فقدان حفاظ مناسب درب و پنجره های باغات و ویلا به ویژه از فصل پاییز تا زمستان روند افزایش سرقت را شاهد هستیم. همچنین، به علت کوتاه بودن روزها در فصل پاییز و با فرا رسیدن زمان تاریکی امکان سرقت نیز افزایش پیدا می کند.

    کلیدواژگان: اماکن، تهران، سرقت، فصول، مناطق مسکونی
  • مسعود تقوایی*، حلیمه پیرالو، مرجان شفیعی صفحات 137-157

    از پیامدهای افزایش جمعیت و گسترش مهاجرت به شهرها، توسعه فیزیکی و رشد ناموزون آنهاست؛ که در پی آن شرایط اقتصادی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی و محیطی شهرها نیز دستخوش دگرگونی خواهد شد. در این میان نحوه مدیریت شهرها در بهبود این سکونت گاه ها، سازماندهی عوامل و منابع جهت پاسخگویی به نیازهای ساکنان و پایداری توسعه شهری مطرح می باشد. بنابراین حل مسایل شهری تنها با اصلاح رویکردهای سنتی مدیریتی و استفاده از رهیافت های نوین امکان پذیر بوده و می توان گفت نگرش ها در برنامه ریزی و مدیریت شهری تغییر یافته و انعطاف پذیری درونی در آن موجب تغییر پارادایم از نگاه حکومتی به حکمروایی شده است. بر این اساس با گسترش روند شهرنشینی در سطح جهانی و گزارشات سازمان ملل جهت حل مسایل مدیریتی شهرها، اندیشمندان این حوزه سعی بر ارایه نظریات و راهبردهایی داشته اند؛ که جهت هدایت شهرها در مسیر پایداری موجب تحقق رویکردهای جدید مدیریت شهری شده است. در همین راستا پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل مهمترین مولفه های رویکردهای مدیریتی موثر در توسعه شهر کنگان انجام شده است. رویکرد حاکم بر پژوهش از نظر هدف توسعه ای و روش آن توصیفی- تحلیلی است. اطلاعات لازم با به کارگیری منابع اسنادی-کتابخانه ای و مطالعات میدانی گردآوری شد. جوامع آماری پژوهش شامل متولیان(48 نفر)، کارشناسان(90 نفر) و شهروندان شهر کنگان(382 نفر) می باشند. تعیین حجم نمونه برای جوامع متولیان و کارشناسان روش گلوله برفی و برای جامعه شهروندان روش کوکران می باشد. تحلیل پژوهش با استفاده از تحلیل عاملی و SWOT صورت گرفته است؛ که نتایج تحلیل عاملی نشان می دهد از نظر متولیان عوامل (کالبدی/ اقتصادی)، (مدیریتی-سیاسی/اجتماعی)، (اقتصادی/اجتماعی) و (زیست محیطی/کالبدی) به ترتیب مهمترین مولفه های مدیریتی در توسعه شهر کنگان می باشد. همچنین یافته های سوات نشان دهنده نقاط قوت و ضعف، فرصت و تهدیدهای توسعه شهری در کنگان است و نتایج QSPM نشان می دهد که استراتژی فرصت ها با 40.780 بیشترین میانگین را کسب نموده است.

    کلیدواژگان: مدیریت شهری، توسعه شهری، تحلیل عاملی، سوات، بندر کنگان
  • فرشاد ترکی، حسین مجتبی زاده خانقاهی*، حسین رضایی صفحات 155-180

    از آنجایی که رشد و توسعه شهرنشینی و ساخت وسازهای غیراصولی، منجر به ایجاد تغییراتی در اقلیم شهر شده است، لذا هدف این پژوهش، بررسی و شناسایی حد آستانه دمایی و جزایر حرارتی شهر کرمان با تاکید بر تحولات سیمای سرزمین می پردازند. پژوهش حاضر به لحاظ هدف توسعه ای کاربردی و از لحاظ روش شناسی توصیفی تحلیلی مبتنی بر مطالعات کتابخانه ای و بررسی های میدانی است. برای دستیابی به اهداف تحقیق، 5 شاخص (ناهمگنی سیمای سرزمین، پیوستگی و ارتباط بوم شناختی، ارتباط عناصر سرزمین، شرایط زیست محیطی و شرایط عملکردی) با 17 زیر شاخص استخراج شد. در ادامه طی دو دوره (1365-1385-1400) تصاویر ماهواره لندست 8 و سنجنده ODE تهیه و با استفاده نرم افزارEnvi وضعیت پوشش و بررسی نتایج حاصل از بررسی های دمایی سیمای سرزمین در شهر کرمان مشخص شد. در ادامه برای حدآستانه دمایی و جزایر حرارتی شهر کرمان با تاکید بر تحولات سیمای سرزمین از الگوریتم رقابت استعماری (درخت پوشای مینیمم MST) در محیط نرم افزار Matlab 2016 استفاده گردیده است و برای فضایی سازی شاخص های موردمطالعه در سطح شهر کرمان از روش (Tracking Analyst Tools) در فرآیند تحلیل شبکه (Network Analyst Tools) در محیط نرم افزار ArcGIS استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان داد که سطح سناریوهای مطرح شده سناریو (ساخت وساز) در پهنه ساخت وساز در سال 1365 از 100 درصد پهنه موجود در سطح شهر کرمان 44/42 درصد به لکه ساخت وساز اختصاص دارد. در سال 1385 این عدد به 49/27 درصد و در سال 1400 به 59/02 درصد رسیده است. نتایج متریک مساحت نشان می دهد که روند کاهشی چشمگیری در طول این دوره از سال 1365 تا 1400 در این بخش اتفاق افتاده است. این روند کاهشی در بین لکه های موجود در این بخش نیازمند بررسی و پیشنهادات ویژه است. سناریو (فضاهای باز) در پهنه فضاهای باز در سال 1365 از 100 درصد پهنه موجود در سطح شهر کرمان به ترتیب 37/56 درصد و 45/1 درصد به لکه باز اختصاص دارد. در سال 1385 این عدد به ترتیب 12/35 درصد و0/98 و در سال 1400 به ترتیب 26/34 درصد و 0/98 رسیده است. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که در جنوب غربی شهر کرمان به علت تعدد قرارگیری مراکز آلوده کننده و شهرک های صنعتی و همچنین قرارگیری وضعیت باد مرکز آلودگی این شهر قرار دارد. نتایج تحلیل مکانی نشان می دهد که در مرکز شهر کرمان نیز به علت حرکت خودرو و تراکم جمعیت برای جابه جایی وضعیت قرار گیری بسیار ناسالمی قرار دارد.

    کلیدواژگان: آستانه دمایی، جزایر حرارتی، کاربری زمین، فضای سبز، کرمان
  • حمیدرضا ملی، افشین متقی* صفحات 189-208

    ایران به واسطه موقعیت گذرگاهی اش در مرکزیت مناطق متداخلی قرار دارد، ایران در مرکز تلاقی محور های تولید و مصرف انرژی جهان قرار دارد؛ در محور عمودی شمالی - جنوبی در مرکز دو منبع انرژی خلیج فارس و آسیای میانه و قفقاز قرار دارد و در محور شرقی - غربی نیز در مرکز دو منطقه مصرف کننده انرژی شرق آسیا و اروپا قرار دارد و این یعنی ایران موقعیت توزیع کنندگی ممتازی دارد. هشت مسیر ترانزیتی عمده در منطقه پیرامونی ایران قرار دارد که البته درجه اهمیت و میزان پیشرفت متفاوتی با یکدیگر دارند. برخورداری و استفاده از موقعیت ژیواکونومیک عامل مهمی در افزایش قدرت ملی کشورها است. ایران نیز از نظر موقعیت ژیواکونومیک در وضعیت مطلوبی قرارداد ولی علیرغم برخورداری از مولفه های ژیواکونومیک از جمله در حوزه موقعیت گذرگاهی، در استفاده از این پتانسیل مطلوب عایدی چندانی کسب نکرده است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی ظرفیت های ژیوپلیتیکی و ژیواکونومیکی جاده ابریشم برای افزایش قدرت ملی ایران است. روش این پژوهش توصیفی- پیمایشی است. نتایج پژوهش نیز استفاده از نرم افزار spss مورد تحلیل و ارزیابی قرارگرفته اند. نتایج پژوهش نشان می دهد که فعال نمودن ظرفیت های جاده ابریشم در افزایش قدرت ژیواکونومیک و نیز تامین امنیت ملی کشور نقش زیادی دارد. همچنین باعث رشد اشتغال و درامد ملی می شود که خود عاملی توسعه و پیشرفت اقتصادی است؛ بنابراین، با توجه به این که هرکدام از شاخص ها و پارامترهای مطرح شده در افزایش قدرت ملی نقش دارند می توان نتیجه گرفت که ایران می تواند با استفاده از موقعیت خود در جاده ابریشم، قدرت ملی خود را افزایش دهد و جایگاه ژیوپلیتیکی خود را نیز ارتقاء بخشد.

    کلیدواژگان: جاده ابریشم، موقعیت ژئواکونومیک، امنیت ملی، قدرت ملی
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  • Bromand Salahi *, Vahid Khojasteh Gholami Pages 1-20
    Fluctuations in temperature are more or less influenced by teleconnections. The aim of this study is to investigate the simultaneous role of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the winter season temperature in Iran. For this purpose, the temperature data of 100 meteorological stations were used in the statistical period of 1988-2019. Correlation coefficients between QBO, NAO, and AO teleconnections data were calculated with monthly temperature. Then the possible states for the simultaneous occurrence of the teleconnection patterns were determined and the temperature anomaly for the determined states was analyzed by drawing a diagram and a map in the GIS environment. The results showed that there is an inverse and significant correlation between the positive QBO phases and February temperature in most of the northern and western regions, so the highest correlation coefficient was calculated at Ilam station as -0.81. An inverse and significant correlation was observed between NAO and especially AO cycles with northern and western half temperatures, especially in January and February. The simultaneous occurrence of the negative (positive) phases of NAO and AO with the negative (positive) phases of QBO causes the occurrence of higher than normal (normal and lower than normal) temperatures in the western (eastern) half so that the warmest winters of the statistical period happened during the simultaneous occurrence of negative NAO, AO, and QBO phases. On the other hand, the simultaneous occurrence of neutral QBO phases with positive NAO and AO phases causes normal and lower-than-normal temperatures in most regions except the southern and southeastern parts of Iran, contrary to this situation, the simultaneity of QBO neutral phases with NAO and AO negative phases has caused the absence of severe temperature anomalies and the possibility of higher than normal temperatures with high intensity is unlikely.
    Keywords: AO, Iran, NAO, QBO, Winter Temperature
  • Habibollah Fasihi *, Taher Parizadi Pages 21-37

    Measuring the quality of the urban living environment is the first step in managing it. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the quality of the urban environment in four neighborhoods of District 17 of Tehran Municipality as examples of inefficient fabrics in the south of Tehran. 55 indexes are used. The data of 29 indexes were obtained from statistical documents and sources, and the rest were obtained through surveys. According to Cochran's model, a sample of 378 household heads out of f 28235 households heads who are residing in the studied neighborhoods were selected randomly to answer the questions of the questionnaire. The documentary data, are adapted to the survey data in the range from 1 to 5 considering the Iranian standard ranges. The state of the quality of environment for each index is stated as a percentage of favorable conditions. Findings indicate the unfavorable state of the quality of the environment in the studied area. 11 environmental indicators show a relatively better state so they have almost 50% of favorable conditions. The physical structure in all the studied neighborhoods is lacking in terms of allocating land to public and service uses. Moghadam neighborhood shows the lowest and Boloorsazi neighborhood shows the highest environmental quality in all the dimensions. To improve the quality of the environment, it is recommended to accelerate the renovation of the urban fabric by faciliating the regulations and using the space that will be obtained from undermining the railway that passes across the neighborhoods.

    Keywords: Environmental Quality, Environmental assessment, Inefficient fabric, Tehran
  • Hamdollah Sajasi Gheidari, Valiollah Nazari *, Mehdi Masomi Jashni Pages 39-62
    Introduction

    Management is the coordination of material and human resources to achieve goals, and many other definitions have added words such as increasing efficiency, directing, and combining science and art to the above definitions. But it can be said that there is a common point in all of them that they mentioned the management of financial and human resources together. This is while the management of financial resources exists on its own and has many uses, and it may be related to the management of human resources. On the other hand, management is a technique as well as a skill with experience in order to organize the affairs of a system, and the concept of supervision comes to mind. However, in another statement from Mintzberg's point of view, management has a different definition, he believes. who equates management with the responsibility of a group and says: "A manager, according to my definition, is someone who is responsible for the entire organization or a separate and identifiable part of the organization. With all that has been said about management and its different definitions in It has been stated in different cultures that management, while applying its management conditions, must also have sufficient management skills to be able to use their skills to successfully apply their experiences in the field of management. Therefore, some managers in villages and rural settlements are Their management practices are based on local knowledge as well as acquired knowledge from government education and they make extra efforts to improve the conditions of the villages under their supervision. Accordingly, a successful manager with rural skills is a manager who is familiar with the rules of management in the village. It makes the necessary use of the opinions and experiences of others in this field in order to provide the best possible conditions for the excellence and growth of the rural settlement. The nearby settlements should surpass themselves and the settlement itself should be transformed into a first-class rural settlement with excellent quality and growth rate with the skillful thoughts of the local manager. This is important in remote villages and villages adjacent to cities. and cities are also trying to train local managers with a sustainable development approach in order to achieve happiness and human well-being in rural areas, the results of which in the past years indicate that this practice and program has been successful. Therefore, this important point should be pointed out. It is necessary for the successful performance of managers at different levels to have management skills. Therefore, local rural managers with management skills can guide rural management towards the new goals of sustainable development.

    Methodology

    The aim of the present research was to measure the possession of management skills by local managers and it was able to achieve new research results by measuring different indicators in the researched case sample. He also pointed out that on this basis, this research is applied research in terms of its purpose, and descriptive-analytical in terms of its implementation method. Regarding the collection of standard data, during the process of conducting the research, for data collection Library and field studies have been used in the target community which is Karat village of Taibad city. The sample size studied using Cochran's formula was 350 households in 9 rural areas of Karat village in Taibad city.

    Results and Discussion

    In the present research, the results showed that there is a significant difference between the studied villages of Taibad County, Karat Dehistan, in terms of having management skills. Also, the results of Friedman's test showed that the share of social skills of rural managers with an average of 4.21 is higher compared to other skills among the studied villages and has a different share compared to other skill measurement indicators. In the continuation of the examination and comparison of management skills between two groups of local managers (Shura and Dehiar), the present research showed that the average of the two groups of local managers in having management skills does not have a significant difference.

    Conclusion

    Finally, the results of the Vaikor decision making model showed that the managers of Koh Abad village and Farman Abad village were ranked first and last in terms of having management skills compared to other studied villages and provided better conditions in obtained in the statistical community. With this description of the situation of the management skills of the two villages that got the most points, the research shows that the two villages of Koh Abad and Farman Abad have the least challenges in terms of their management skill.

    Keywords: Social entrepreneurship, Eempowerment, Relief Committee, rural areas, Bowanat city
  • Sayed Mahmood Alavi, Bahadour Zarei *, Yashar Zaki, Sayed Mousa Hosseini Pages 63-84
    Introduction

    Water is an element whose presence is necessary for economic development, food production, improvement of living standards and health, survival of living organisms, etc. Lack of access to fresh water endangers food security and social and economic well-being. As one of the dry and semi-arid countries of the world in the Middle East region, Iran is one of the countries facing water shortage. Due to the rapid growth of the urban population, the quantitative and physical growth of industries, industrialization, and traditional agriculture that consumes a lot of water in Iran has created many hydro-political and environmental challenges. Being located in the arid and semi-arid region of the south of the country, Bushehr province receives a large part of its water needs from the water resources of the neighboring provinces of Fars, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Ahmad, with successive droughts and little and irregular rainfall, thus it is facing a water challenge. Due to the existing conditions and the reduction of water resources in the neighboring provinces, there is a possibility of water cuts and conflicts, and hydro-political tensions within and outside the province. The lack of water, in addition to its effect on economic security and the creation of local and regional tensions, has faced a problem in the development process of this province and has led to the emergence of various insecurities in the province. It is predicted that if this trend continues, the province will face more hydro-political challenges in the future. The present study aims to present a fitting model of hydro-political challenges surrounding the economic security of Bushehr province. This research seeks to answer the question: Is the empirically reproduced pattern of hydro political challenges surrounding the economic security of Bushehr province adequate?

    Methodology

    In terms of the purpose, the present research is applied in terms of exploratory nature and in terms of mixed data, which means that in the qualitative phase of the research, semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, as well as indirect observation (reading of texts) were used. In the quantitative phase of the research, a survey study was used to collect data. Then, based on the organized themes of the qualitative phase, a researcher-made questionnaire was designed in the form of a five-point Likert scale, and after validation and reliability, 165 experts in the field of water and political geography of Bushehr province were selected using the multi-stage cluster sampling method. completed Finally, after coding, the research data were extracted and tested and interpreted using SPSS26 and Smart PLS statistical software in two sections, descriptive analysis and inferential analysis.

    Results and Discussion

    The findings of the research have been made in two parts, qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative part, after analyzing the texts and semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, they have been analyzed, after the discovery and calculation of the conceptual model of the components of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province, as well as the economic security indicators of Bushehr province, have been drawn. In the quantitative part, the data obtained from the questionnaire resulting from the qualitative phase of the research, which were distributed among the experts of the investigated organizations in Bushehr province; After coding, they were extracted and transferred to SPSS26 and Smart PLS software and analyzed and interpreted in two parts: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. The independent variable of hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province with 45.466 (with a test average or cut-off line of 36) and the dependent variable of economic security indicators with 80.392 (with a test average or cut-off line of 63) is above the average level, and therefore it indicates that The amount of hydropolitical challenges in Bushehr province is relatively high; Because this rate is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of measured questions. The second and third hypotheses of the research have been confirmed at the error level of 0.01. But the first hypothesis considering that the T test value is below 1.96; Not confirmed.

    Conclusion

    The descriptive findings of the research show that the independent variable of the hydropolitical challenges of  Bushehr province is the average of 45.466 and its dimensions include extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 6.406 and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 39.060 and the dependent variable of economic security indicators with an average of 80.3925 in the studied statistical population are higher than the test average or the cut-off line. Therefore, they are not in a favorable situation, because their level is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of questions measured by the variables. The inferential findings of the research also show; the first hypothesis of the research "there is a significant effect between extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and the economic security of the province" according to its T value of 0.848 is less than 1.96 and its significance level is greater than 0.05, so this hypothesis is rejected. The second hypothesis of the research "there is a significant effect between hydropolitical challenges within the province and the economic security of the province" its T value is 3.220 which is greater than 2.58. Therefore, its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the second hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis of the research "there is a significant effect between extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges" and its T value is equal to 3.04, which shows that its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the third hypothesis is also confirmed. Therefore, according to the goodness of fit of this model, which is equal to 0.198, the general hypothesis of the research that the model of the effect of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province on the economic prosperity of the province has the required fit, is confirmed.

    Keywords: Hydropolitical challenges, the goodness of fit, economic security, water resources, water consumption, Bushehr Province
  • Mostafa Mazaheri, Hassan Kamran Dastjerdi, Qiuomars Yazdanpanah Dero *, Mahmood Vasegh Pages 85-100
    Relationship between countries in the world system is affected by various factors. The study of the theories of different thinkers, suggests that the relationship between powers and states is formed by based on many components and variables, In the meantime Geographical and geopolitical elements are important substrates for the formation of geopolitics relations at regional, trans-regional and global levels, Therefore the importance of geopolitical relations in advancing the goals and policies of countries and geographical areas is undeniable Because how countries and powers influence and benefit from their peripheral developments, in addition to their national power and their regional situation, depends largely on the geographical and geopolitical realities, the type of relationships and the quality of their interactions with other actors. Given this importance, the present article, with a critical approach while expressing the geographical and geopolitical components in the aforementioned theories, seeks to identify and investigate the function of new geographical and geopolitical factors in shaping different types of geopolitics relations and to provide a comprehensive model for explaining the geopolitics pattern of relations. Among the mentioned levels, the regional level is more important. Among the mentioned models: interactive, competitive relations, dominance relations, influence relations, are the result of the thoughts of experts in different eras, and the geopolitical stability and continuity relation is one of the achievements of the present research . The results of the research findings indicate that new factors and elements are involved in the formation of geopolitics relations Which in addition to geographical and geostrategic conditions The is on the geoeconomic components, geopolitics of resource, geopolitics of identity, geopolitics of tourism, geopolitics of globalization and the geopolitics of cyberspace between regions and countries emphasize.
    Keywords: Geographical, geopolitical factors, Geopolitics relations, Regional, Trans-regional, Global
  • Shiva Ganjian, Nasrollah Molaeihashjin *, Atoosa Bigdeli Pages 93-107
    The current research aims to explain; The degree of diversification of economic activities has been done in increasing the economic and social resilience of touristic villages of Rasht county against the disease of Kovid-19. The current research is practical in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature and methodology, and SPSS and GIS software were used to analyze the data. The corona virus was reported by the World Health Organization in China in early January 2020. The virus spread rapidly in the Wuhan region of China. Following the crisis of the spread of the corona virus in different parts of the world, its spread was officially confirmed on 17 February 2020 by the Ministry of Health, Treatment and Medical Education. In Iran, with the spread of the Corona virus, the number of tourists decreased by 90 percent compared to previous years. Tourism in all the cities and villages of Iran has caused a lot of irreparable damage during the Corona era, and the highest damage estimate was related to touristic villages. The results of sample t-test and Spearman's correlation showed that diversification of economic activities at a significance level of 0.000 has a great impact on increasing the economic and social resilience of touristic villages. Also, in order to categorize the level of economic and social resilience in each of the Districts of Rasht county, focusing on the diversity of economic activities, standard deviation was used. The results showed that the state of economic and social resilience after From the point of view of council members and villagers, it is desirable to create diversity of economic activities in all the studied Districts of Rasht county.
    Keywords: diversification of economic activities, socio-economic resilience, touristic villages, Rasht county, COVID-19
  • Payman Godarzi, Mohammad Reza Pourgholami Sarvandani *, Bahman Tasihi Pages 109-133
    Introduction

    Spatial analysis of crime is one of the important subjects of crime geography. The occurrence of crimes in time and place follows certain rules. Studying the temporal and spatial correlation of crime can provide more useful clues for crime analysis and help discover potential crime patterns. Theft, as one of the crimes against property, occurs frequently in the daily life of the people of the society, which has a serious destructive effect on the social order. The selection of the place of the crime has gained a lot of influence in the last two decades. This region is currently a concern for city managers, police, and judicial officials; Therefore, identifying polluted and crime-prone areas, obtaining information on them, and having efficient policing strategies in the field of preventing, dealing with, and fighting crime is of great importance in creating order and security in these centers and, as a result, improving the quality of life of citizens. The spatial location of crime hotspots, district 14 of Tehran city, the most important physical characteristics or effective spatial factors, encouraging or facilitating the crimes committed and the detection of environmental factors, background factors are investigated and analyzed using spatial statistics, and solutions can also be provided to prevent and reduce them. Therefore, the purpose of the current research, in addition to the spatial and spatial analysis of crimes, is to analyze the trend of changes in the time series of crimes of theft of places and residential areas in different seasons of the year in the 6th police station of 14th district of Tehran. The basic question of this research is based on the principle that in the spatial analysis of theft crimes of places and residential areas of Tehran's 14th district in different seasons of the year, what is the pattern of time series and its spatial changes ?

    Methodology

    The current research has been used in terms of practical purpose and spatial and spatial analysis approach. In terms of the nature of collecting and analyzing graphic and statistical data, it is considered quantitative. GIS, SPSS, and Excel software have been used to collect information for the analysis of graphic data and statistics in urban crime centers. The statistical population for the investigation of crime hotspots is from the crime statistics of Fateb's 6th Chief Constable and all the numbers between the years 2013 -2017. In this research, from the statistical point of view, first, the minimum and maximum datas of theft crimes in the 14th district of Tehran city were discussed, then the average crimes and deviation from the standard of theft crimes were analyzed using SPSS 22 software. Mann-Kendall test was used to check the possible deviation and the type and time of change in the data of theft crimes. To estimate the real slope of a trend in a time series, using the non-parametric Sen, 's method can be one of the appropriate methods in this field.

    Results and Discussion

    In terms of comparison of the deviation from the standard of theft of premises in the 14th district of Tehran in different seasons between years 2013 -2017, the highest deviation from the standard of theft of premises was observed in autumn, summer, spring, and later winter seasons respectively.By analyzing the time series trend for the crime of theft of private places and public places of theft using the Mann-Kendall test in the 14th district of Tehran at the 95% confidence level, there was no significant seasonal and annual trend for the theft of private places. In other words, it can be said that there is no significant difference in the crime of theft of private places in the 14th district of Tehran, which indicates randomness in the data of theft of private places. In other words; This randomness and non-compliance of thefts from private and government places is a clear trend and it can be said that in this area, the policies and performance of relevant agencies,police patrols, or control measures regarding thefts of public and private places have not achieved any meaningful results. But the values of the S statistic and the significance level in the Kendall test for shoplifting and home theft crimes in the 14th district of Tehran at the 95% confidence level have a seasonal trend in the month of autumn and a significant annual trend for shoplifting and home theft crimes. In other words, it can be said that for the years 2013 -2017, there is a significant difference in the crime of shoplifting in the 14th district of Tehran, both annually and in the autumn season, which indicates that there is no coincidence in the data of shoplifting and home theft crimes and that there is a significant decreasing trend. Therefore, it can be said that the policies and performance of the relevant agencies regarding theft from shops and homes have been significantly reduced.

    Conclusion

    The results of this research on the types of theft in the 14th district of Tehran, in terms of the distribution of crimes, show that most shop and home theft crimes are concentrated in the western and northwestern parts and the least shop and home theft crimes are concentrated in the south and southwest areas. However, the crimes of theft of private and public places do not follow a specific pattern and change from one place to another after moving for years.By comparing the minimum number of burglary crimes in different seasons of 2013 -2017, it was observed that the spring season has the lowest number of burglary crimes and occasionally in the summer season (including theft of government premises and shops) and in the fall season(including theft of homes and private places) in the winter season (theft of government places) has been observed.Compared to the maximum number of burglary crimes in different seasons of 2013 -2017, in the autumn season (theft of private places, shops, houses, and public places), the summer season (theft of houses, public places, shops, and private places) has the highest number of burglary crimes is assigned to itself.In the winter season and then in the spring season, the highest average number of theft crimes has been observed.it can be said that the control measures carried out in the autumn season were significant and reduced.According to the morphology of the 14th district of Tehran, in the police management of urban crime centers, three factors have the greatest impact on the occurrence of theft, including the lack of appropriate cultural and educational structures in this area of the city, the existence of worn and old structures, the lack of supervision of parks and green spaces in the area, and The length of days is decreasing and the duration of darkness is lengthening.It is suggested that the 14th police station of Tehran city, by using the operational and police force of that region, with car and motorcycle patrols in an inconspicuous and timely manner, control and monitor plans for experienced thieves in the autumn season and also in the dark hours. With the cooling and the beginning of the rainy season, for private places without seasonal habitation and dark and lonely alleys and out of the sight of police patrol units, these areas should put the reconstruction and improvement of roads on their agenda in terms of safety, and by improving the lighting conditions of the streets, roads, and Margins equip the mentioned points to this important matter.

    Keywords: Places, Tehran, Robbery, seasons, Residential Areas
  • Masoud Taghvaei *, Halimeh Piralou, Marjan Shafiei Pages 137-157
    Introduction

    The city is a dynamic and complex phenomenon that functions as a system. According to the United Nations report, for the first time in history, more than half of the world's population lives in cities, which will reach 70% in 2050. Urban management is responsible for monitoring, planning and managing the sustainable development of cities. Since top-down urban management in practice has led to many urban problems, and the effectiveness of decision-making patterns has caused the creation of various management approaches; whose purpose is to understand human behavior and change consumption patterns towards more sustainable paths. In our country, urban management has been affected by macro structures and the environment, which has resulted in lagging behind (urbanization) and overtaking (growth) from (urban development). Therefore, the lack of participatory democracy, planning and management, and the lack of coordination of urban plans with construction plans, inattention to the specific conditions and prevailing performance of each city are among the challenges of the current urban planning and management system in Iran. In such a situation, along with the development of metropolises, the cities that host the oil and gas industry, such as the city of Bandar Kangan, also face challenges such as the rapid development of the city, the increase in the cost of infrastructure, the loss of resources, the disproportion of the distribution of uses, the excessive increase in the price of land and housing, and disorder. environmental problems and hundreds of other challenges and has caused weakness in the proper management of the city from (physical, environmental, economic, social-cultural and management-political) aspects; Therefore, urban management can only be managed with a bottom-up planning that firstly enjoys the participation and support of citizens and secondly uses a combination of management approaches in the matter of managing cities and guiding them in the path of sustainability. work successfully. 

    Methodology

    This research is developmental in terms of purpose and in terms of descriptive-analytical and causal-survey method. Collecting information using documentary-library and field method (observation, interview and questionnaire). After extracting and comparing indicators in the approaches of political economy, empowerment, urban democracy, neighborhood-based management, social capital, traditional urban management, NGO, public choice, urban participation, pluralism, integrated urban management, sustainable urban development, good governance and Urban development strategy, important and common indicators in line with the management approaches of urban development were categorized in the form of 5 physical, environmental, economic, social/cultural and managerial/political dimensions. Each of these dimensions has sub-criteria that form the basis of the current research questionnaire. In order to investigate and explain the most important components of effective management approaches in urban development and Analysis the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to realize the desired urban development in Kangan city, factor analysis and SWOT models have been used. In this research, the trustees, experts and citizens of Kangan city are considered as statistical communities. The sampling method was random sampling, and the snowball method was used for statistical communities of trustees (48 people) and experts (90 people), and the sample size of the citizens of Kangan city (382 people) was determined using Cochran's method. 

    Results and Discussion

    Analysis of the most effective factors in Kangan city management. In order to identify the underlying dimensions of the research, the factor analysis method was used, which the main management components in the development of Kangan city were prioritized from the point of view of the trustees compared to the research variables, and included factors (physical/economic), (management-political/social), (economic) / social) and (environmental / physical) that these factors explain 56% of the total variance. Analysis of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of effective management approaches in the development of Kangan city by integrating the opinion of the target communities. The results of the SWOT analysis show that there is a gap with democratic citizenship, the effect of sanctions and currency shocks on the city's economy, and the lack of fair provision of services with a score of 0.18 are the most important weaknesses in the system that need to be improved in terms of planning. The impact of the share of oil and the growth of the sales rate and the increase in the level of education and social awareness with a score of 0.22, the role of the government in the economy and funding and investment with a score of 0.21 are the most important opportunities, as well as the effect of financial and monetary policies on the city's economy with a score of 0.24. Paying attention to the rules and management of urban development and not paying attention to demographic characteristics with a score of 0.23 are considered as threat factors against effective management approaches in the development of Kangan city.

    Conclusion

    In this research, the most important indicators of effective management approaches in the development of Kangan city were examined and explained. In order to find the important factors from the point of view of Kangan city trustees, factor analysis was used, the results show: (physical /economic),(management-political/social),(economic/social)and (environmental /physical) factors respectively have the highest percentage. has allocated the variance. Also, using the SWOT model, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of urban development in Kangan Port were identified. The results indicate that the opportunity points have the highest score of 3.51 and the strengths have the lowest score of 2.38. The results of QSPM also show that providing public benefits and meeting basic needs to increase social justice, coordinating trustees and strengthening integrated management to organize the city in order to achieve urban sustainability, increasing trust and validation to improve adaptability and flexibility, planning the development of the tourism industry to reduce The reliance of Kangan's economy on oil and gas is one of the most effective strategies in the development of Kangan city; Among these strategies, priority is given to managerial/political and economic indicators.

    Keywords: Urban Management, urban development, Factor analysis, SWOT, Kangan port
  • Farshad Torki, Hossein Mojtabazadeh Khanghahi *, Hossein Rezaei Pages 155-180
    Introduction

    Humans have always sought to use and take advantage of nature for their well-being, but most of these uses have caused the destruction of the natural environment around them. It means an area where the temperature of that area is higher than the surrounding environment, in other words, the air temperature in the city is higher than the air temperature of the surrounding environment, which has a uniform and homogeneous temperature. As the aim of this research, they examine and identify the temperature threshold and heat islands of Kerman city, focusing on the landscape changes.

    Methodology

    The current research is based on library studies and field investigations in terms of developmental-applicative goal and in terms of descriptive-analytical methodology. To achieve the objectives of the research, 5 indicators (landscape heterogeneity, ecological continuity and connection, connection of land elements, environmental conditions and functional conditions) with 17 sub-indices were extracted. In the following, during three periods (1365-1385-1400), satellite images were prepared and using Envi software, the state of coverage and the results of the temperature surveys of the surface of the land in Kerman city were determined. The colonial competition algorithm (minimum spanning tree MST) has been used in the Matlab 2016 software environment and for the spatialization of the indicators studied in the city of Kerman by the method (Tracking Analyst Tools) in the process of network analysis (Network Analyst Tools) in the soft environment ArcGIS software is used.

    Results and discussion

    As a result of this research, it should be said that at the level of the proposed scenarios, the scenario (construction) in the construction zone in 2016, out of 100% of the available zone in the city of Kerman, 42.44% is dedicated to the construction spot. In 1385, this number reached 49.27% and in 1400, it reached 59.02%. The results of the area metric show that most of the land surface of the study area is made up of patches. Also, construction spots and open spots have increased in area and the growth of this spot between them is significant. The largest share of spots formation in every 3 years is related to artificial spots. The results of the classification spectrum for the measured islands in the city of Kerman were classified into 6 classes. The results show that in the southwest of the city of Kerman, due to the location of numerous polluting centers and industrial towns, as well as the location of the wind, the pollution center of this city. contract.

    Conclusion

    The results of the location analysis show that the location is very unhealthy in the center of Kerman due to the traffic and population density. In order to investigate and understand the heat islands of Kerman city, relying on the changes and evolutions of pollution in this city, after the investigations carried out on the amount of pollution and carbon dioxide production in 8 sections, the status of each index was examined in terms of the amount of emission. According to the findings of this research, by combining the 8 maps of the previous stage and taking into account what the analysis of the satellite images shows, the state of the heat island resulting from pollution in Kerman city is presented.

    Keywords: Temperature threshold, Thermal Islands, Land use, Green space, Kerman
  • Hamid Reza Meli, Afshin Mottaghi * Pages 189-208

    Iran is at the center of the intervening regions due to its transit location, Iran is at the center of the intersection of the world's energy production and consumption; on the north-south vertical axis it is at the center of the two energy sources of the Persian Gulf and Central Asia and the Caucasus; and on the east-west axis it is at the center of two energy consuming regions of East Asia and Europe, which means that Iran has a privileged distribution position. Eight major transit routes are located in the peripheral region of Iran, which of course have different degrees of importance and progress. having and using the geo-economic position is an important factor in increasing the national power of countries. Iran is also in a favorable situation in terms of geo-economic situation but despite having geo-economic components, including in the area of transit location, it has not gained much in the use of this favorable potential. The purpose of this research is to investigate the geopolitical and geoeconomic capacities of the Silk Road to increase Iran's national power. The method of this research is descriptive-survey. The research results have been analyzed and evaluated using spss software. The results of the research show that activating the capacities of the Silk Road has a great role in increasing the geo-economic power and also ensuring the national security of the country. It also causes the growth of employment and national income, which itself is a factor of economic development and progress; Therefore, according to the fact that each of the mentioned indicators and parameters play a role in increasing national power, it can be concluded that Iran can use its position on the Silk Road to increase its national power and improve its geopolitical position.

    Keywords: Silk Road, geo-economic position, National Security, National Power