نشریه بحران پژوهی جهان اسلام
سال دهم شماره 4 (پیاپی 31، زمستان 1402)

no society is independent of the pathology. Special conditions of Iranian society in terms of density and diversity of social problems on the one hand and the need to the political institution for problem-oriented research with the aim of increasing efficiency, on the other hand, necessitate such a thing. Identifying the focal problems and measuring their relationship with each other is the main goal of this research; for this purpose, the network analysis method was used using cross-impact analysis techniques and multi-criteria cluster technique. The tool used for data analysis is Gephi software. The sources of identification of social problems in the present study are 650 academic and organizational research documents prepared on the topic. Identification, clarification and classification of problems have been done by the focus group. The results of the research show that disorders related to governance, injustices, poverty, various types of extremism and educational problems are the most important influencing variables and on the opposite point; The dimming of the discourse of the Islamic Revolution, the loss of social capital, the disruption of social cohesion and the weakening of the family institution are the most effective variables in the network of social problems.

The analysis and understanding of phenomena and issues in the realm of human sciences have always been done from the perspective of positivist epistemology, which have made the understanding of phenomena and issues ambiguous.  This article focuses on understanding Iran's social issues and phenomena from the post positivist approach and the intellectual perspective of Peter Winch. Understanding each society based on the conventional understanding of that society is the main topic of this research.Therefore, this article seeks to answer the question, through which epistemology and social thinking can one achieve a reliable understanding of the political issues of the Islamic Republic of Iran? The hypothesis of the article is that by applying post-positivist epistemology and especially Peter Winch's opinions, it is possible to gain a more reliable understanding of the political issues of the Islamic Republic of Iran. A combination of content analysis and qualitative research was used to investigate this issue. The present article tries to use the methodological approach of Winch in order to understand the political and cultural issues of Iranian society. Peter Winch’s pinions and thoughts, with valid knowledge of social and human phenomena, have benefited from politics and culture to reach the state of society.

Among the political crises that exist in the Islamic world, the lack of democracy and the desire for authoritarianism are at the top of them. Apart from the causes and sociological factors that they mention about it, it seems that the lack of analysis of its essence in the shadow of religious thought has become an additional cause. Democracy belongs to the West and its acceptance in the Islamic world requires its reconstruction on the basis of text. It is important that the structure should be removed from authoritarianism and the role of the people in political life should be increased, but what was neglected is dealing with the essence of democracy, i.e. political competition, without which democracy basically becomes meaningless. What gives democracy an identity and separates it from the structure of authoritarianism is political competition and not political participation; In an authoritarian system, participation may increase and the government with a high vote will remain in power, but it will still remain authoritarian. Since the 1920s, which is called the spring of welcoming democracy in the Islamic world, there have been many reflections on the various aspects of democracy from an Islamic perspective, but less attention has been paid to its essence, which is political competition. What is the position of religious thought regarding this concept? And which of the chapters of jurisprudence is able to regulate it within a political system? ( Issue ) . From the point of view of this article, the chapter on lessons learned can clarify the path of such a competition and explain its Islamic rules. (hypothesis). The methodology of this article is the common method of new jurisprudential subjects, which is based on the ijtihad of the seminary. (Methodology) This review shows that jurisprudence accepts political competition and assigns rules to it that can justify such competition. (findings)

The victory of the Islamic revolution led to the formation of the discourse of resistance as an alternative to the hegemonic discourse of domination, and it was able to move from a marginalized discourse to the context of developments.  One of the most important examples of this acting can be explained in the discussion of regional order. This article has analyzed the role of resistance discourse in regional order by using the discourse theory of Lacla and Mouffe and using explanatory-analytical method. The proposed hypothesis is that the discourse of resistance after the victory of the Islamic revolution in Iran, with the creation of an Islamic discourse system, has been able to transform from a discourse marginalized by the discourse of domination into an active discourse in the context of regional and extra-regional policies, and with the negation of the hegemonic discourse of domination and non-compromise in contrast to its policies will create a new articulation, which ultimately has created a new pattern of high-efficiency order-making at the regional level. However, the discourse of resistance, while having structural, military, conceptual and ideological capacities, still has many challenges at various levels, domestic (such as economic challenges), regional (such as competing discourses) and extra-regional (such as the intervention of Western powers) that can seriously threaten its goals. The innovation of this article is explaining the regional regularization of the discourse of resistance while paying attention to its capacities and challenges.

The developments in Syria, which began with protests, internal conflicts, and external rivalries, have escalated into a full-blown crisis. Despite a decrease in the intensity of the crisis in recent years, it remains a smoldering fire that could reignite at any moment. One of the contributing factors to the reduction in the scope of the crisis has been the agreements between two influential regional actors Iran and Turkey, despite their initial differences (Problem). This article, using the ZOPA approach, aims to answer the question: What are the reasons and points of agreement for the ZOPA region between Iran and Turkey, as influential actors in the Syrian crisis? (Question).The research findings, based on a descriptive-analytical method and using Deductive reasoning (Method), indicate that the changing situation in Syria has led to Turkey's inclination towards creating a zone of agreement. Within this zone, the two countries have reached agreements on issues such as the preservation of Assad's power, maintaining Syria's territorial integrity, repatriating Syrian refugees, and reconstructing the country (Findings).

Today, the influence and interference of the Pakistani military in politics has become a normal process. During the 75-year history of this country, no government has been able to complete its five-year term. This indicates the high position of the military in the political structure of this country. The purpose of this article is to investigate the influence of the military on Pakistan's foreign policy strategies. (Target) On this basis, this research by using a qualitative method and a descriptive analytical approach, seeks to answer the question of how the Pakistani army has influenced the foreign policy strategies of the country? The hypothesis of the article is that “By controlling the three main strategies of foreign policy, i.e. the necessity of internal and external balancing against India, the Durand problem and the necessity of not forming a strong government in Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism, the Pakistani army has been able to maintain its high position in the political structure of this country and become a key actor in Pakistan's foreign policy.” The collection of sources has been in the form of a library and the use of specialized magazines and reliable internet sites.

Ensuring the socio-political rights of citizens is one of the obligations of governments, which is clearly mentioned in the internal laws of countries. But guaranteeing these rights sometimes faces external obstacles. One of these obstacles is unilateral and multilateral sanctions. In spite of the fact that the states imposing sanctions always deny such an effect, but most of the researches conducted in this regard have rejected this proposition. One of the countries that has experienced the longest and most extensive unilateral and multilateral sanctions is Somalia. This article aims to answer the question: what effect did the sanctions have on the socio-political rights of Somali citizens? The hypothesis of the research points out that sanctions affect ordinary citizens more than the political system and its leaders. Therefore, they violate the socio-political rights of Somali citizens. To answer the research question; we used the global indicators of the right to life, the right to health, and the quality of governance during the period of sanctions against Somalia. The gathered data was evaluated with a documentary-descriptive method. The research findings empirically showed that the right to life and the right to health has been severely violated in Somalia during the years of sanctions, and the sanctions have not been able to bring about any improvement in governance indicators in this country. Also, from the theoretical dimension, the findings of other researchers regarding the negative effects of sanctions on human rights were confirmed.

Explanation of the Karabakh Crisis based on Brecher's Crisis Management Model. The Nagorno-Karabakh crisis was an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh region that lasted for more than thirty years. Finally, in September 2023, after a siege of several months, the Republic of Azerbaijan succeeded in completely capturing Karabagh. This crisis had historical, ethnic, religious and geopolitical roots, which have expanded and decreased under the influence of environmental variables. The main question of the article is what factors contributed to the rise of the Karabakh crisis?(question). In this research, Process-Tracing method (method) and Michael Brecher's crisis management theory (theoretical framework) have been used. Findings of the research indicate that in the emergence and escalation of the crisis between the two countries,  the territorial proximity, ethnic-religious conflicts, geopolitical competitions of regional and extra-regional actors played a significant role.  This crisis ended not with a diplomatic solution but with the use of force. According to Burcher's crisis management model, if an international crisis is ended by force, it will bring less stability. Therefore, the re-formation of the crisis between Baku and Yerevan is likely. In the post-crisis period, tensions can be seen in Armenia as a result of the influx of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh to this country and people's dissatisfaction with Pashinyan. At the regional level, the balance of power has changed in favor of Baku, which can cause this country's adventures in the region in relation to Iran and Armenia. Also, the extensive presence of Turkey and Israel in the South Caucasus will intensify regional competition (findings).

The heterogeneous and mosaic socio-political conditions of Lebanon, which is rooted in the history of this country, are the main reason for the formation of unrest and the lack of consensus among political elites to create reconciliation between ethnic and religious groups and currents inside this country. But besides the above factor, other factors are also effective in this field. The current research tries to answer this question with a descriptive-analytical approach and through library that what were the most important influential factors in the formation of Lebanon's political crisis and its spread to other areas between 2005 and 2019? (question). In this research, the authors analyze the role of domestic, regional and international components by using the level of analysis approach as well as Little's security approach, which deals with socio-political cohesion and the type of security environment. The findings indicate that the internal differences between different ethnic and religious groups have caused the weakness of the government institution and they have provided the ground for foreign actors to play a role in the political sphere of Lebanon. In addition to the internal components, the interventionist role of foreign actors and their alliance with ethnic and religious groups with the aim of achieving their desired interests, has caused the failure to reach a collective agreement among the political elites of this country. This issue doubled the problem of fragmentation, instability and deep political, social and economic crises in Lebanon during the years 2005 to 2019 (findings)