نشریه مدیریت بحران
سال دوازدهم شماره 2 (پیاپی 24، پاییز و زمستان 1402)

In recent years, in order to prevent the horizontal growth of cities, the idea of construcing high-rise buildings has been proposed. However, the occurrence of threats such as fire and terrorist attacks in high-rise and dense residential communities can cause devastating life and financial consequences, due to the slow down of the evacuation process of the residents. In this study, to provide a model of emergency evacuation, Qasr Ferdous residential community in Punak town of Zanjan, which has dense and high-rise buildings and a population of over 1200 people, has been selected as a case study. For this purpose, Pathfinder software has been used to simulate emergency evacuation. In this study, to reduce the evacuation time and the evacuation flow rate of the main door of the community, adding a new door to the community and changing the arrangement of parking lots and behavorial rules have been evaluated in 6 scenarios. The results of the analysis of these scenarios show that, changing the arrangement of parking lots and applying behavioral rules increases the flow rate by 8% at night and 15% at day. Moreover, adding a new door to the community, reduces the evacuation flow rate of the main door for night and day times by 12.3% and 2.8%, respectively, and also reduces the evacuation time by 31% and 34.5% for night and day time respectively.

Earthquake and flood are two of the most important natural destructive factors in Iran. In fact, earthquakes and floods as a natural phenomenon do not in themselves have undesirable consequences. What makes these destructive factors a disaster is their inability to prevent them and their inability to deal with their consequences. The purpose of this study is to identify and rank destructive factors in buildings after floods and earthquakes. The statistical population of the study consists 300 experts in the field of civil construction. Prior research and expert opinion have been used to identify destructive factors. Experts' opinions were measured using a questionnaire. After completing the questionnaires by experts, validity and reliability test was performed on the questionnaire. In this study, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to check the normality of the data. In this way, 21 destructive factors after earthquake and 11 destructive factors after flood have been extracted. Then, by preparing a questionnaire and distributing it among the statistical sample, experts' opinions were collected based on Likert's five-choice range and identified by testing the hypothesis of influential factors. The results of the hypothesis test show that all the identified factors are effective for earthquake and flood. Subsequently, common destructive factors are identified and the multi-criteria decision-making method of ELECTRE 4 is used to prioritize these factors. The results show that building reversal and foundation destruction are the most important common factors.

One of the most effective services provided by the armed forces during social crises (such as war, etc.) is the construction of military field hospitals. The location and construction of these hospitals have potential risks that need to be identified, prioritized, and find appropriate solutions to contain them. The purpose of the current research is to identify the risks of building military field hospitals during war and crisis and to prioritize them using the FMEA approach. The research is based on the method of data collection, descriptive-case study, and based on the type of data, it is mixed. The research expert team includes 17 experts (all of whom were familiar with the basics of risk management, field hospitals and the FMEA approach and had experience or academic records of more than 20 years, related to one of the mentioned subjects) using the available method and until reaching the theoretical saturation stage was selected. In order to survey the experts, a semi-structured interview was used. The first researcher-made questionnaire was used by the expert team to calculate the CVI index, and the second researcher-made questionnaire was used by 60 experts in the research field for the FMEA approach. The validity of the questionnaires was confirmed using content validity and its reliability using Cronbach's alpha and SPSS software. Based on the results, 60 priority risks (including 16 high-risk cases, 26 medium-risk cases, and 18 low-risk cases) were identified in the establishment of military field hospitals. Also, the results show that the risks of lack of drug storage, blood supply bank, operating room equipment, engine house, water tanks and facilities, health and energy infrastructure, land quality, waste disposal system, structure strength, camouflage and security of transmission routes are the most important risks.

Undoubtedly, in the crisis of the epidemic of the Covid-19 virus, reducing the injuries and improving the performance of the electric power distribution company, which provides exclusive and vital services at the strategic level of the country, is of special importance for the continuation of the essential activities of the society and national sustainability against the public crisis. Therefore, the purpose of the current research is to investigate and identify the effects of the epidemic on the company and Pathology of the company's crisis management and to provide practical suggestions for the sustainability of the company's performance and flexibility in the crisis. Considering that the current research seeks to provide conceptualization, it is exploratory in terms of its purpose, and the research strategy is exploratory mixed method (qualitative - quantitative). Content analysis method was used in the qualitative stage and survey research method was used in the quantitative stage. Semi-structured interviews were used to collect data in the qualitative stage, and questionnaires were used in the quantitative stage for exploratory factor analysis and the extraction of Latent variable from the conceptual codes obtained in the qualitative stage. Based on the indicators collected from the interviews, two questionnaires related to research purpose were extracted and compiled, which had 14 and 32 items respectively. Then, in the survey stage, based on the results of the exploratory factor analysis test, there are 4 factors or latent variables including negligence in crisis management, intervening environmental factors, lack of biological defense program and cultural poverty as factors of failure of crisis management and 7 latent variables including Psychological injuries, job burnout, weakening of knowledge management, physical injury of employees, decline in organizational harmony, financial losses and limitation of employees' actions were identified as the effects of crisis on the company. Also, the results of the ranking of the variables indicate that during the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, the two factors of crisis management negligence and Psychological injuries are respectively the most important among the factors of crisis management failure and the effects of the crisis on the company.

Petrochemical industry, as a set of project-oriented organizations with complex research projects and industrial development with high technology, in order to deal with changes in the environment and the need for exploitation and achieve strategic goals always need to use tools and It has new methods to reduce costs, improve quality and time in order to better, effectively and efficiently manage its projects. The success of research projects and the development of the petrochemical industry is highly dependent on having strong and sustainable supply chains, and competition between petrochemical project-oriented organizations has become competition between their supply chains. The main purpose of this article is to identify the effective factors in how to manage the supply chain. The present study was applied in terms of method, descriptive-survey in terms of purpose and one-time in terms of time. The statistical population consisted of 40 supply chain specialists in Shiraz Petrochemical Company due to the limited number of members based on the census method. The data analysis method is based on a hierarchical process that the results showed that producer risks as the most important criterion of supply chain risk with a degree of importance of 0.410 in the first place and then end customer risks with a degree of importance of 0.269, supplier risks with Significance of 0.212 and finally distributor risks with importance of 0.109 were ranked second to fourth.

The purpose of the present research is to investigate the prioritization of criteria affecting fire identification and command using the multi-criteria decision-making method and NFPA standards. The nature and method of the present research is of an applied type due to its use in the fire department. For this purpose, the criteria were extracted using the existing standards and after screening among the statistical population consisting of 250 firefighters from each job position (station chief, commander, assistant commander, foreman and firefighter) from 8 fire stations in 19 cities. Tehran were selected. The random sampling method was simple and the sampling volume was 152 people using Cochran's formula. The research collection tool was an open questionnaire whose design and questions were extracted using NFPA standards and distributed among experts. The validity of the questionnaire was calculated by 20 experts and university professors in the field of safety and firefighting in the form of a Likert spectrum through the CVR index and its value was calculated as 0.42. The reliability of the questionnaire was calculated in a pre-test with 20 subjects using SPSS20 software and the value of Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.875. In order to determine the relative weight and importance coefficient of the indicators, ANP hierarchical method and Super design software have been used. The results of the present research in prioritizing the criteria affecting the identification and command of operations are as follows: 1- Leadership and command competence (SMA) with a normal weight of 0.79, 2- Organization of the operational area (RSF) with a normal weight of 15. 0 and risk management (MR) with a normal weight of 0.06. The degree of inconsistency between the criteria was 0.077.

Crisis management is the knowledge that planning and complying with principles and standards before, during and after a crisis increases the human contribution in controlling incidents, and water crisis management is especially important in arid and semi-arid areas. Water crisis management as one of the The most fundamental issues of urban development are the unplanned growth of cities that disturbs the crisis management system in big and small cities. Controlling water wastage plays a significant role in Iran's dehydration crisis, which is one of the solutions for optimal use of available water resources. Unaccounted water, in addition to being imposed on the water stress of the country's cities, in terms of sources of income for water and sewage companies, it involves financial crises. However, as a result of excess network pressure, the undesirable phenomenon of leakage that is directly related to pressure occurs (Jahangir, Barani, Jahangir, 2013). Network pressure management is considered as the most efficient and simplest method among leakage reduction methods. The requirements of pressure management include reducing leakage, reducing consumption, reducing accidents, non-payment and efficient distribution of water. With the intelligent management of pressure in the water distribution network by multi-point controllers, in addition to controlling and supplying the pressure of the distribution network, the critical points of the network were identified and effective measures were taken to distribute the same pressure, which led to the reduction of production costs, The amount of field leaks, the number of branching incidents decreased by 31% and the number of main network incidents decreased by 37%.

The need for security and safety, being on the second step of the hierarchy of human needs defined by Maslow, is of great importance in the prosperity of citizens. Considering the geographical extent of cities and the role and importance and accumulation of centers of gravity, facilities and human resources at the top of threats, proper planning can play a fundamental role in risk management and reducing the city's vulnerability to accidents. Therefore, this research has been conducted with the aim of spatial analysis of the vulnerability of neighborhoods of Salmas city against earthquakes with a non-active defense approach. The current type of research is applied and the method of carrying out the work is descriptive-analytical and the collection of information is done through library and field studies. To achieve the goal of the research, 12 indicators have been selected and standardized based on fuzzy functions in GIS software. Then the 12 fuzzified indicators are overlapped and the vulnerability map of neighborhoods of Salmas city is extracted based on the passive defense approach. WASPAS method was used to show vulnerability in 13 neighborhoods of Salmas city and its data was analyzed in MATLAB software. The results showed that 16% of the area of Salmas is in the very low vulnerability zone, 33% in the low vulnerability zone, 29% in the medium vulnerability zone, 19% in the high vulnerability zone and 3% in the very high vulnerability zone. Also, the lowest level of vulnerability was related to neighborhood 10 and the highest level of vulnerability was related to neighborhood 13.

The necessity of water for survival is not hidden to anyone, but there is still no clear and systematic way to think about the value of water. The connection between poverty and lack of water is quite clear, so that poverty is prevalent mainly in water-scarce areas and can lead to conflicts; Social and economic development is completely tied to water, and the fact is that Iran is clearly facing a water crisis.This article seeks to harness the capacity of the media in general and new forms of water-related journalism in particular to promote citizens' water literacy. Accordingly, the present study was conducted in an interpretive paradigm based on qualitative methodology and using the data theory method of the Strauss and Corbin Systematic Approach Foundation, through theoretical sampling with experts in the fields of water, media, social sciences and communications, 31 in-depth interviews. The main phenomenon of this research was considered to be the promotion of water literacy. By analyzing the data, causal conditions (31 concepts), Underlying factors (cultural conditions, political and social conditions, media diversity, geographical conditions, economic conditions), intervening factors (role of professional journalists, independence of journalists, politicization of the press, ambiguous future of Iranian journalism) and strategies (media interaction, industry interaction, educational institutions, academia and media, press pathology, social capital promotion, audience sociology, confidence building, gatekeeper democracy, technological convergence and journalism, contiguous content, establishment of newspaper association Water writers, agile media interaction, and the creation of water journalism in schools, educational institutions, and universities) obtained in three coding steps.

What has been discussed in this article is the identification and ranking of the dimensions and components of barraging high-altitude Management in Air rescue operations in crisis situations. Our country is one of the countries that face various crises, such as earthquakes, wars, epidemics of contagious disease, etc. Among the crises that have been encountered so far were the Procrustean wars. One of the missions of air operations is to support the fighting forces with C-130 planes. Air barraging has long been carried out at low altitude and at low speed to support the ground forces, but due to the strong defense ring and the possibility of firing missiles at the aircraft at low altitude, the possibility of vulnerability increases. To achieve this purpose, first study documents and research background. Then a questionnaire was developed the Delphi method with a range of 5 Likert options and was distributed in two stages among 26 experts of airlines and effective high-altitude precipitation antecedents in air operation and Analysis with SPSS software. Then were identified 6 dimensions and 26 components, The content validity index of CVR was confirmed and the Cronbach's alpha coefficient in all components was above 0.7, which shows acceptable reliability. To prioritize the identified solutions, a hierarchical analysis questionnaire was prepared and distributed among the skilled staff of an airline. The results of the questionnaires were analyzed in Expert Choice software and the effective high-altitude precipitation antecedents in air operation were prioritized in six dimensions: Emergency conditions, weather conditions, launch point, parachute and load. Finally, according to the research results, applicable solutions were presented based on 6 dimensions.

Today, the issue of safety in tourist destinations and residences is considered as a competitive factor and plays a significant role in the economy of cities and countries. Now, tourism is referred to as a booming phenomenon and one of the most important industries in the world, which plays a significant role in the identity of the country. The development of tourism and human desire for special tourism destinations has led to a variety of tourism, such as religious, urban, rural, health and sports tourism. This study intends to investigate fires and urban accidents to explain the incidents related to the pilgrims of Mashhad - the most important pilgrimage city in the country. For this purpose, the required data was extracted from the fire and accident log registration system and the data was analyzed by a data mining method based on SQL Server software. Accordingly, the identified incidents were primarily related to human issues such as improper use of electrical appliance systems, cigarette butts and children playing with matches and incendiary devices, And then there are accidents due to technical reasons, such as elevator accidents and people being trapped, gas leaks, lack of alarm devices and smoke, faulty signs or difficult access to firefighting equipment Gas leaks, lack of alarms and smoke, faulty signs or difficult access to firefighting equipment have occurred. In this article, practical suggestions are presented to increase the safety of tourism in the holy city of Mashhad. The need to improve safety knowledge, empower citizens and strict monitoring actions by the responsible agencies and organizations to raise the level of safety standards for tourists and pilgrims, are among the results obtained.

The process of urban development has intensified in recent decades, and adaptation of the built environment and critical infrastructures are needed to increase their resilience. Some of the most important of these elements are transportation infrastructures, which is particularly important to address the resilience of these infrastructures as a strategic approach. Therefore, in this research, the resilience of the transportation infrastructures of two (region 9), four (6) and five (region 1) neighborhoods of Tehran metropolis were explained. For this purpose, 6 indicators of population density, texture of localities, design pattern of localities, Placement on the fault, enclosure, width of passage using network analysis method (ANP) in order to evaluate the resilience of transportation infrastructure the locations were weighted and classified. The results of this research showed that the resilience of transportation infrastructure in Kashank neighborhood got the highest score (4.89) and South Mehrabad neighborhood got the lowest score (2.92) in the total of indicators, which indicates better desirability and resilience. The transportation infrastructure of Kashank neighborhood is better compared to other neighborhoods, and in contrast, it is necessary to pay more attention to the transportation infrastructure of South Mehrabad neighborhood and empower them.